Hogville Info
• 9,747,372 Posts
• 394,581 Topics
• 22,260 Hogvillians
THE RULES (Read 'em!)
Quick Links
Pick'Ems:Football      Basketball      Baseball
Sister Sites:Gridiron HistoryFearless Friday
Listen NOW:Game ON 103.3 
  
Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives  (Read 1593 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!

Maybe some of you Posters can help out with this.

I'm posting the frequency of Offensive TD Drives compared to the frequency of TD drives allowed by the Defenses of these teams below. Is there a relationship in these differences that relates to the Offensive Scheme that each team runs? I don't know the type of Offense that each of these teams run so maybe you can help by identifying the Offensive Schemes associated with each of these teams? The number you will see is how many drives it takes to either score a TD or allow a TD. FG's are not counted in this, just scoring TD's.

And then, we can discuss whether there is a correlation to be found in the numbers?

                    Frequency of             Frequency of
Teams            Off TD Drives            Def TD Drives            Difference          W-L
                     (once every)            (once every)
Georgia                2.6                          5.4                        2.8               13-2
Oklahoma              2.2                          3.2                        1.1              12-2
U C F                   2.2                          3.5                        1.3               13-0
Alabama               2.5                          8.4                        6.0               13-1
Clemson               3.1                          6.9                        3.8               12-2
Ohio State            2.5                          4.3                        1.9               12-2
Wisconsin             3.1                          7.2                        4.2               13-1
Auburn                 3.1                          4.9                        1.8               10-4
U S C                   3.2                          3.6                        0.4               11-3
Miami-FL               3.8                          5.7                        1.9               10-3
Penn St                2.3                          6.1                        3.8               11-2
Memphis               2.4                          3.2                        0.8               10-3
Washington           2.6                          6.3                        3.7               10-3         
T C U                   3.2                          5.5                        2.3               11-3
L S U                   3.6                          5.6                        2.0                 9-4
Okla State            2.4                          4.5                        2.0                10-3
Florida Atl             2.4                          4.5                        2.1                11-3
TX A&M                3.8                          3.0                       -0.8                 7-6
S M U                   2.8                          2.5                       -0.3                7-6
Arkansas               3.3                          2.7                       -0.6                4-8

Just something to discuss for those who want to talk football in the off season.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 12:16:32 pm by MuskogeeHogFan »
Logged

redeye

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 1
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11,216
  • Go Hogs Go!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2018, 01:03:29 pm »

Interesting stuff MH!  The greatest variations occur with defensive TD frequency, which suggests that a concentration on defense will have better results.  It seems like the teams with the highest "Difference" are mostly Power I offenses, with the interesting exception of Clemson.
Logged

Sponsored Ad



Hogville encourages you to do business with the following...

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2018, 01:26:07 pm »

Interesting stuff MH!  The greatest variations occur with defensive TD frequency, which suggests that a concentration on defense will have better results.  It seems like the teams with the highest "Difference" are mostly Power I offenses, with the interesting exception of Clemson.

It seems to me, in looking at those numbers, we have less far to go with the offense (maybe the Morris influence will be the difference there) than we do with the defense. If you want to be successful and win more games in the SEC there has to be a +2 drive differential in Defensive TD drives to that of your Offense. But if we can improve by one full drive on offense and by just one on defense, that will be the positive +2 swing that we are looking for to win a lot more games.
Logged

redeye

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 1
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11,216
  • Go Hogs Go!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2018, 01:37:59 pm »

It seems to me, in looking at those numbers, we have less far to go with the offense (maybe the Morris influence will be the difference there) than we do with the defense. If you want to be successful and win more games in the SEC there has to be a +2 drive differential in Defensive TD drives to that of your Offense. But if we can improve by one full drive on offense and by just one on defense, that will be the positive +2 swing that we are looking for to win a lot more games.

Yea or maybe just 2 full drives on defense, since that's where we have the most room for improvement.

I also find it interesting that Arkansas is last on Frequency of Defensive TD's, with the exception of SMU.
Logged

tconey1

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2018, 01:39:55 pm »

It seems to me, in looking at those numbers, we have less far to go with the offense (maybe the Morris influence will be the difference there) than we do with the defense. If you want to be successful and win more games in the SEC there has to be a +2 drive differential in Defensive TD drives to that of your Offense. But if we can improve by one full drive on offense and by just one on defense, that will be the positive +2 swing that we are looking for to win a lot more games.


Seeing as how drives alternate(excluding turnovers on special teams) all you are really saying is we need to score 2 more times per game than our opponents to win more games.  Makes sense to me.
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2018, 02:03:38 pm »


Seeing as how drives alternate(excluding turnovers on special teams) all you are really saying is we need to score 2 more times per game than our opponents to win more games.  Makes sense to me.

More importantly I'm demonstrating that the Defense needs to find a way to increase their effectiveness. That is one take on it.
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2018, 02:46:46 pm »

Yea or maybe just 2 full drives on defense, since that's where we have the most room for improvement.

I also find it interesting that Arkansas is last on Frequency of Defensive TD's, with the exception of SMU.

But a part of this, which is why I posed the original question to everyone about identifying offensive schemes and how that might relate to how the defense performs, is the fact that if you look at some of the more faster paced offenses, they tend to score more often, putting their defense back on the field with a scoring cushion to defend and perhaps, more quickly than other conventional offenses.

Look at UCF. On average they scored a TD once every 2.2 Offensive Drives, same as Oklahoma. But UCF allowed 1 TD to be scored for every 3.5 Defensive Drives, slightly better than Oklahoma at once every 3.2 Defensive Drives. Contrast that with Alabama who scored a TD once every 2.5 Offensive Drives but turned in a Defensive performance that allowed 1 TD to be scored (on average) every 8.4 Defensive Drives. That's the top end of differential performance.

As long as we get to where we can allow TD scores (forget about FG's) two times less often than we score TD's against our competition, we are going to win a lot more games each season. Heck, if we can improve by 1/2 as much as is required on offense and defense, we will win more games as that would move us to 1 TD in every 2.8 Offensive Drives while limiting our opponents to 1 TD in every 3.2 Defensive Drives. That (0.eight) differential would put us on par with what 9-5 Stanford was able to accomplish this past season. That should be good enough for 7-8 wins next year if we can achieve that improvement.
Logged

Inhogswetrust

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 32
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 35,790
  • Guessing is easier than actually trying!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2018, 03:51:25 pm »

Proves to me that if SMU had a decent defense last year they would have had a much better record since the O scored.
Logged

Poker_hog

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2018, 04:30:00 pm »

Other than time of possession why would anything the offense does affect the defense?

I assume you're wanting to now how tempo affects the defense.  Time of possession, average drive time, and time between snaps would be better for that and even then I suspect there are way too many variables to draw any conclusions.
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2018, 04:38:42 pm »

Proves to me that if SMU had a decent defense last year they would have had a much better record since the O scored.

It also reveals that if LSU had a better offense they might have contended. 3.6 drives per Offensive TD while their Defense held opponents to just 1 TD in every 5.6 Drives? Heck we scored 1 TD on average in every 3.3 Offensive Drives. With their recruiting prowess, there really isn't any excuse for that. That comes down to coaching and scheme.
Logged

Nashville Fan

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 2
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 5,452
  • Welcome to next year!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2018, 06:32:31 pm »

Hmmm. If I am reading this correctly only a .3 difference between aTm and AR for defense. Not middle of the pack like I was hoping for AR’s new defense.
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2018, 07:40:46 pm »

Hmmm. If I am reading this correctly only a .3 difference between aTm and AR for defense. Not middle of the pack like I was hoping for AR’s new defense.

We will just have to see how much of a difference more pressure up front makes for the Arkansas secondary and how better that makes the entire unit play.

First we need the offense to score more TD's more often on drives (duh) but then we need to see how a different, and pressure oriented defensive scheme, effects the frequency of TD's given up by the defense.
Logged

lakecityhog

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2018, 09:19:38 pm »

Muskee, Can you do this just for the SEC? I think that data would be more relevant for us since the styles of play are at least a bit more similar, especially defensively.

We can get an idea of just how much we need to improve to move up in the conference.
Logged

redeye

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 1
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11,216
  • Go Hogs Go!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2018, 12:17:04 am »

Hmmm. If I am reading this correctly only a .3 difference between aTm and AR for defense. Not middle of the pack like I was hoping for AR’s new defense.

Allegedly Sumlin wouldn't recruit defensive players for aTm and that's supposed to explain Chavis' troubles there.  Looking at TOP numbers for Clemson and SMU, I suspect that Morris has a higher appreciation for defense than Sumlin did.

Considering how our offense scored nearly as frequently as Clemson's last season, if Chavis can get our defense anywhere near the 6.9 Clemson averaged, then we could be greatly improved.  It's also not hard to believe that Clemson's offense may have been better last season, if Morris were still there, since they're essentially using a stripped down version of his playbook.
Logged

DeltaBoy

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 53
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 69,589
  • I'm Un-Reconstructed. Sic semper tyrannis
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2018, 08:38:42 am »

A little improvement on both sides of the ball will reap tons of benefits.
Logged

steveaustin69

  • Guest
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2018, 10:26:23 am »

A little improvement on both sides of the ball will reap tons of benefits.

You don't say?
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2018, 12:31:40 pm »

Muskee, Can you do this just for the SEC? I think that data would be more relevant for us since the styles of play are at least a bit more similar, especially defensively.

We can get an idea of just how much we need to improve to move up in the conference.

If you would like to help by going game by game for all of the remaining SEC East teams and counting their drives, taking out the "garbage time" drives? In that case, I'll be glad to compile the rest.
Logged

Pigsknuckles

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 9
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 10,080
  • When you least expect it...
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2018, 01:23:21 pm »

It would appear that in the absence of offensive efficiency defense still can win ball games. As might be expected though, the  balance of the two efficiencies seems to give the best median results, with the nod going to the better defensive play.
Logged

PorkSoda

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2018, 02:04:42 pm »

I guess the most obvious difference is those with negative difference lose a lot more than those with a positive difference.

translated: scoring more often than your opponent results in more wins.
Logged

OneTuskOverTheLine™

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 4
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 14,331
  • One tusk over the line sweet Jesus...
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2018, 02:18:03 pm »

Maybe some of you Posters can help out with this.

I'm posting the frequency of Offensive TD Drives compared to the frequency of TD drives allowed by the Defenses of these teams below. Is there a relationship in these differences that relates to the Offensive Scheme that each team runs? I don't know the type of Offense that each of these teams run so maybe you can help by identifying the Offensive Schemes associated with each of these teams? The number you will see is how many drives it takes to either score a TD or allow a TD. FG's are not counted in this, just scoring TD's.

And then, we can discuss whether there is a correlation to be found in the numbers?

                    Frequency of             Frequency of
Teams            Off TD Drives            Def TD Drives            Difference          W-L
                     (once every)            (once every)
Georgia                2.6                          5.4                        2.8               13-2
Oklahoma              2.2                          3.2                        1.1              12-2
U C F                   2.2                          3.5                        1.3               13-0
Alabama               2.5                          8.4                        6.0               13-1
Clemson               3.1                          6.9                        3.8               12-2
Ohio State            2.5                          4.3                        1.9               12-2
Wisconsin             3.1                          7.2                        4.2               13-1
Auburn                 3.1                          4.9                        1.8               10-4
U S C                   3.2                          3.6                        0.4               11-3
Miami-FL               3.8                          5.7                        1.9               10-3
Penn St                2.3                          6.1                        3.8               11-2
Memphis               2.4                          3.2                        0.8               10-3
Washington           2.6                          6.3                        3.7               10-3         
T C U                   3.2                          5.5                        2.3               11-3
L S U                   3.6                          5.6                        2.0                 9-4
Okla State            2.4                          4.5                        2.0                10-3
Florida Atl             2.4                          4.5                        2.1                11-3
TX A&M                3.8                          3.0                       -0.8                 7-6
S M U                   2.8                          2.5                       -0.3                7-6
Arkansas               3.3                          2.7                       -0.6                4-8

Just something to discuss for those who want to talk football in the off season.
That pretty much without a doubt shows a really good defense will win... Defense builds championships. Now it's scientifically proven. You just got your PHD (Pimpin' Hawgs Degree) Congratulations.
Logged

redeye

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Total likes: 1
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 11,216
  • Go Hogs Go!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2018, 02:43:37 pm »

That pretty much without a doubt shows a really good defense will win... Defense builds championships. Now it's scientifically proven. You just got your PHD (Pimpin' Hawgs Degree) Congratulations.

Yep!  Offensive frequencies vary little, but defensive frequencies vary a lot.  Offensive frequencies range between 2.2 - 3.8, so there's a small 1.6 TD/Drive window here.  Defensive frequencies range between 2.5 - 8.4 for a whopping 5.9 TD/Drive.

Defense 5.9 TD/Drive - Offense 1.6 TD/Drive = 4.3 TD/Drive increase.  You might say that an improved defense has a roughly 4X better chance of improving the team, than an improved offense.

Also worth pointing out that our national champion has the best defensive frequency, but several have a better offensive frequency. 

Logged

lakecityhog

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2018, 05:09:26 pm »

Muskee, Nope I don't have that kind of time to devote! If you went thru EVERY game drive for EVERY team on this list you have way more drive than me!!
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2018, 06:20:40 pm »

Muskee, Nope I don't have that kind of time to devote! If you went thru EVERY game drive for EVERY team on this list you have way more drive than me!!

I did. No way to determine the accurate numbers otherwise. So, I put this stuff together when I have the time to do so and right now, I don't have that kind of time. Wasn't being a "SA" at all. If you want to help put this stuff together then maybe we can collaborate. Otherwise, you'll just have to wait until I have the time to put it together for the remaining SEC teams.
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2018, 06:24:35 pm »

I guess the most obvious difference is those with negative difference lose a lot more than those with a positive difference.

translated: scoring more often than your opponent results in more wins.

Or preventing your opponent from scoring more often while your offense is at least decent in many offensive statistical categories, can be a difference maker as well. Compare the Clemson numbers to that of Arkansas on both Offense and Defense.
Logged

PorkSoda

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2018, 06:32:54 pm »

Or preventing your opponent from scoring more often while your offense is at least decent in many offensive statistical categories, can be a difference maker as well. Compare the Clemson numbers to that of Arkansas on both Offense and Defense.
I think you misunderstand my point, even though yours is also valid.

a difference of 0 means you score as often as your opponents.  which means on average you win about half your games (6-6).

notice that all those listed less that 0 won 7 games or less.

notice that all the other ones listed that won 10+ games all scored more often than their opponents by at least 1 drive, and most of them by at least 2 drives.

of course all that just to state the obvious, that if you score more often than your opponent, you have a better chance of winning.
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2018, 07:05:00 pm »

I think you misunderstand my point, even though yours is also valid.

a difference of 0 means you score as often as your opponents.  which means on average you win about half your games (6-6).

notice that all those listed less that 0 won 7 games or less.

notice that all the other ones listed that won 10+ games all scored more often than their opponents by at least 1 drive, and most of them by at least 2 drives.

of course all that just to state the obvious, that if you score more often than your opponent, you have a better chance of winning.

I totally understand what you are saying and we are saying something similar, but even the most dynamic offense in all of college football last season (Oklahoma) couldn't get it done when the chips were down because there was only a 1.1 difference in scoring drives made vs. allowed. They rode the strength of their offense, as many teams tend to do. Then look at the differences between Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Oklahoma. Depending on your regular season in-conference schedule, generally speaking, I think you need to exceed the 2.0 difference if you hope to be more successful and while your offense is important, the level of defense that you field seems to play the bigger role. JMO
« Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 07:23:31 pm by MuskogeeHogFan »
Logged

PorkSoda

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2018, 08:46:42 pm »

I totally understand what you are saying and we are saying something similar, but even the most dynamic offense in all of college football last season (Oklahoma) couldn't get it done when the chips were down because there was only a 1.1 difference in scoring drives made vs. allowed. They rode the strength of their offense, as many teams tend to do. Then look at the differences between Alabama, Georgia, Clemson and Oklahoma. Depending on your regular season in-conference schedule, generally speaking, I think you need to exceed the 2.0 difference if you hope to be more successful and while your offense is important, the level of defense that you field seems to play the bigger role. JMO
yeah, as someone pointed out, there doesn't seem to be a big variance in offensive scoring, but the defensive scores allowed shows a lot of variance.  Chavis is prolly the best DC we have had since Reggie Herring (the 2006 defense was a big reason we won so many games that year) I'm hoping that he can get some performance out of this unit next year. 
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #27 on: January 31, 2018, 05:52:02 am »

yeah, as someone pointed out, there doesn't seem to be a big variance in offensive scoring, but the defensive scores allowed shows a lot of variance.  Chavis is prolly the best DC we have had since Reggie Herring (the 2006 defense was a big reason we won so many games that year) I'm hoping that he can get some performance out of this unit next year. 

There are probably a lot of things that can be looked at to determine what makes a particular team (or group of teams) win more than another. Certainly the difference in frequency of offensive scoring drives to defensive scoring drives makes a big difference, but how much of that is effected by the level of competition that you face, the quality of the talent that you have on a team, the quality of the coaching staff that you have and then also, maybe the style of offense that you run.

Oklahoma doesn't face the same level of conference competition, they have talent and a good coaching staff, but their defense wasn't that great. Had it not been for having a dynamic offense, they probably wouldn't have won as much as they did.

Look at UCF, Memphis and SMU above. Overall they didn't play the schedule that a lot of teams did throughout the season, they don't have the same team-wide talent that a lot of teams tend to have, they all have good coaching, but their defenses weren't up to par in stopping other teams from scoring more frequently like some of the other teams listed above. Again, they leaned on their offenses but what might they have been had they had better defenses? Granted, UCF couldn't have done better than 13-0, but they didn't have enough quality wins before the bowl season. Victims of their conference and schedule.

Auburn ran a faster offense as well, had really good talent, had a pretty good defense but somewhere along the way, whether due to coaching or whatever and despite going to the SECCG, they obviously underachieved on offense compared to the talent that they had available to them. They barely registered more frequent scoring drives than we did.

So, there are probably a lot of factors to look at that end up producing these numbers, but having a pretty good defense is always going to be a big plus for any team.
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #28 on: February 04, 2018, 10:30:41 am »

As requested, here is a grouping of the SEC compared to others.

                    Frequency of            Frequency of
Teams            Off TD Drives            Def TD Drives            Difference          W-L
                     (once every)            (once every)
West
Alabama               2.5                          8.4                        6.0               13-1
Arkansas              3.3                          2.7                       -0.6                4-8
Auburn                 3.1                          5.5                        2.4               10-4
LSU                     3.6                          5.5                        1.9                9-4                         
Miss St                 3.4                          4.8                        1.3                9-4
Ole Miss                3.6                          3.0                       -0.7               6-6
Tx A&M                 3.8                          3.6                       -0.2               7-6

East
Florida                 6.3                          3.8                       -2.6                4-7
Georgia                2.6                          5.4                        2.8               13-2
Kentucky              4.1                          3.3                       -0.9                7-6
Missouri                3.2                          3.6                        0.4                7-6
S. Carolina            4.0                          5.0                        0.9                9-4
Tennessee            5.2                          3.3                       -0.9                4-8
Vandy                  3.8                          3.0                       -0.8                5-7

Other Notables
Oklahoma              2.2                          3.2                        1.1              12-2
U C F                   2.2                          3.5                        1.3               13-0
Clemson               3.1                          6.9                        3.8               12-2
Ohio State            2.5                          4.3                        1.9               12-2
Wisconsin             3.1                          7.2                        4.2               13-1
U S C                   3.2                          3.6                        0.4               11-3
Miami-FL               3.8                          5.7                        1.9               10-3
Penn St                2.3                          6.1                        3.8               11-2
Memphis               2.4                          3.2                        0.8               10-3
Washington           2.6                          6.3                        3.7               10-3         
T C U                   3.2                          5.5                        2.3               11-3
Okla State            2.4                          4.5                        2.0                10-3
Florida Atl             2.4                          4.5                        2.1                11-3
S M U                   2.8                          2.5                       -0.3                7-6

Point being, our target needs to be having an offense that scores a TD once in every 2.5 to 2.9 offensive drives and a defense that forces opposing offenses to not score TD's but once in every 5 or more drives if we hope to be truly competitive in the SEC.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2018, 12:18:56 pm by MuskogeeHogFan »
Logged

12247

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #29 on: February 04, 2018, 01:13:12 pm »

Someone lamented that the defense didn't have much effect on the offense of their own team.  Think about that.  This research proves it does makes much difference.  The better defensive teams give their offense the ball way more often in great scoring position (short field), while also limiting their competition to long tiring drives trying to score and failing more often to score.  One compliments the other.

That BAMA 8.4 defensive TD frequency sticks out like a sore thumb and yep, they are the NCs.  You can also notice that any team with a defensive frequency above 5 was a very good team.

The reverse is that teams with turnover problems or poor offenses would put the defense on the spot often by giving the competition a short field and lowering the defensive TD frequency.  My feelings is that this research has value but like just about any happening, anywhere, anytime, its the entire story that ends up showing the truth.  Example:  how often does bonehead coaching mistakes cause the turnover and likely take the offense out of a TD or mis-alginment on D cause a player to be totally out of the play and give the competition offense a TD.  Overall, its still that team owning the facts and figures but often its not offensive scheme causing the problem.

For me, its difficult to define the exact scheme on O or D.  A team may claim to operate a particular scheme but they rarely actually line up and operate from that formation.  Earlier someone mentioned the power I formation and that lots of teams use it.  Guess i don't see that often.  I was around when the power I was 3 backs lined up directly behind the QB in a vertical line.  Breaking the I usually meant that one back would split left or right for purposes of blocking or going in motion.  Rarely is there 2 RBs on the field on the same play and far more rarely is there 3.  In fact it almost never happens for 3 unless you choose to call the WR in the slot a RB.


Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Total likes: 43
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 40,824
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #30 on: February 04, 2018, 04:34:48 pm »

Someone lamented that the defense didn't have much effect on the offense of their own team.  Think about that.  This research proves it does makes much difference.  The better defensive teams give their offense the ball way more often in great scoring position (short field), while also limiting their competition to long tiring drives trying to score and failing more often to score.  One compliments the other.

That BAMA 8.4 defensive TD frequency sticks out like a sore thumb and yep, they are the NCs.  You can also notice that any team with a defensive frequency above 5 was a very good team.

The reverse is that teams with turnover problems or poor offenses would put the defense on the spot often by giving the competition a short field and lowering the defensive TD frequency.  My feelings is that this research has value but like just about any happening, anywhere, anytime, its the entire story that ends up showing the truth.  Example:  how often does bonehead coaching mistakes cause the turnover and likely take the offense out of a TD or mis-alginment on D cause a player to be totally out of the play and give the competition offense a TD.  Overall, its still that team owning the facts and figures but often its not offensive scheme causing the problem.

For me, its difficult to define the exact scheme on O or D.  A team may claim to operate a particular scheme but they rarely actually line up and operate from that formation.  Earlier someone mentioned the power I formation and that lots of teams use it.  Guess i don't see that often.  I was around when the power I was 3 backs lined up directly behind the QB in a vertical line.  Breaking the I usually meant that one back would split left or right for purposes of blocking or going in motion.  Rarely is there 2 RBs on the field on the same play and far more rarely is there 3.  In fact it almost never happens for 3 unless you choose to call the WR in the slot a RB.


Let's add T/O Margin to the equation.

                   Frequency of            Frequency of
Teams            Off TD Drives            Def TD Drives            Difference          W-L
                     (once every)            (once every)                                                         T/O Margin
West                           
Alabama               2.5                          8.4                        6.0               13-1                   1.00
Arkansas              3.3                          2.7                       -0.6                4-8                   -0.08
Auburn                 3.1                          5.5                        2.4               10-4                  -0.07
LSU                     3.6                          5.5                        1.9                9-4                    0.77     
Miss St                 3.4                          4.8                        1.3                9-4                  -0.08
Ole Miss                3.6                          3.0                       -0.7               6-6                  -0.42
Tx A&M                 3.8                          3.6                       -0.2               7-6                   0.23

East
Florida                 6.3                          3.8                       -2.6                4-7                   -0.27
Georgia                2.6                          5.4                        2.8               13-2                    0.27
Kentucky              4.1                          3.3                       -0.9                7-6                    0.23
Missouri                3.2                          3.6                        0.4                7-6                   -0.62
S. Carolina            4.0                          5.0                        0.9                9-4                    0.85
Tennessee            5.2                          3.3                       -0.9                4-8                   -0.25
Vandy                  3.8                          3.0                       -0.8                5-7                   -0.42
Logged

jcbville

Re: Difference in Freqency of Offensive TD Drives to Defensive TD Drives
« Reply #31 on: February 05, 2018, 05:39:53 am »

 :puke:
I did. No way to determine the accurate numbers otherwise. So, I put this stuff together when I have the time to do so and right now, I don't have that kind of time. Wasn't being a "SA" at all. If you want to help put this stuff together then maybe we can collaborate. Otherwise, you'll just have to wait until I have the time to put it together for the remaining SEC teams.

Wow. Kudos sir. Well done. Thats very interesting data youve put together. Thank you for the time put into doing that.
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
 

KARK
KWNA
Fox 16 Arkansas