Hogville Info
• 9,747,143 Posts
• 394,577 Topics
• 22,260 Hogvillians
THE RULES (Read 'em!)
Quick Links
Pick'Ems:Football      Basketball      Baseball
Sister Sites:Gridiron HistoryFearless Friday
Listen NOW:Game ON 103.3 
  
Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs  (Read 1071 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

ucahogfan

Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« on: January 26, 2018, 09:04:21 pm »

I figure it might be fun to see what everyone thinks about this team and what grades they would throw out.  Since this is baseball, we have to use the 20-80 scale.  This is very similar to what a lot of the publications do before the season.  They assign a grade to each different facet of a team.  The facets they grade are:

Hitting
Power
Speed
Starting Pitching
Relief Pitching
Defense
Intangibles

For my grading, I'll do a ceiling, floor, and realistic prediction of each of the 7 categories.

Hitting
Ceiling - 80 - This offense truly has a chance to be one of the elite offenses in the country this year.  You return 7 regulars from one of the top 40 scoring offenses.  I would think very few teams could say that.  Then you have Jordan McFarland, Evan Lee, and Jack Kenley who could all make a nice sophomore leap if they are given regular ABs.  You also add in bringing in a top 5 recruiting class with big time players in Heston Kjerstand, Cole Turney, Casey Opitz, Casey Martin, and several others.  There is no shortage of extremely talented players for DVH to chose from to plug into the lineup.

Floor - 60 - Barring a ton of injuries, I feel like this offense will be at least as good as it was last year.

Realistic - 70 - This will be one of the top offenses in the country again.  The talent is too overwhelming and there is too much experience for it not to be.

Power
Ceiling - 80 - We return 59 HRs from last year and I would think several players would say that they underachieved.  Koch and Fletcher have 20 HR ceilings, but more realistic in the 15-18 range.  Bonfield, Gates, McFarland, and Shaddy have double digit HR potential if they are consistently in the lineup.  Turney has big time power, but I think he won't play a lot early on as he is injured.  Cole and Biggers could hit 8-10 HRs.  There is really no lack of power in this lineup.

Floor - 60 - Even if everyone hit the same number of HRs as last year, it will still be a team with a lot of thunder.

Realistic - 75

Speed
Ceiling - 60 - Like last year, I don't think DVH will do a lot of stealing bases as we have the ability to hit HRs all over the lineup and don't want to run into outs.  We have some players who don't have a ton of speed in Bonfield and Gates, but Casey Martin might be the fastest player on the team if he is in the every day lineup.  We have some good baserunners who can take the extra base, but this team is not built to wreak havoc on the base paths.

Floor - 45

Realistic - 55

Starting Pitching
Ceiling - 75 - Blaine Knight and Isaiah Campbell could both be 1st round picks this year.  It has the chance to be one of the top 1-2 punches in the country.  Kacey Murphy was solid down the stretch last year and brings the potential to strike a lot of guys out.  He could be a 3rd-4th round pick with a good season.  Keaton McKinney brings experience in Omaha as a potential option as a weekend starter.

Floor - 60

Realistic - 70 - Our starting pitching is going to very good this year.

Relief Pitching
Ceiling - 75 - I know a lot of people will disagree with me about this grade, but the potential of this pen means it could be one of the best in the country.  There are a plethora of 90+ arms which have solid secondary stuff in Reindl, Loseke, Cronin, Lee, Bonnin, and Rutledge.  DVH also made it sound like a couple other freshmen who could contribute in the pen and be excellent SEC level pitchers.

Floor - 50 - There is a chance that this pen is just average this year as well.

Realistic - 60

Defense
Ceiling - 80 - This has a chance to be the best defense in school history and one of the best in the country.  Fletcher is an elite defender in CF and the corner OFs will be guys with good speed and excellent arms.  Biggers is a vacuum at SS and Shaddy has improved immensely at 2B.  Kenley and Wilson are elite defenders while 1B is a question mark, but it won't be a bad defender.  Koch will also shut down running games as long as the pitchers are not extremely slow to the plate.  He threw out over 50% of base stealers last year with anyone not named Trevor Stephan on the mound.

Floor - 70

Realistic - 75

Intangibles
Ceiling - 80 - This team has one of the elite coaches and coaching staffs along with veterans who have been to Omaha, faced the worst season in a long time, and rebounded solidly last year.  I don't think there is another team in the country with those type of intangibles.

Floor - 70

Realistic - 75

Season Expectations
Ceiling - Dogpile in Omaha

Floor - Regional Final

Realistic - Omaha here we come


Can we please have the season start already?
Logged

Jaxhog

  • Band Nerd
  • **
  • Total likes: 4
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 32
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2018, 01:39:52 am »

Nice write up!
Here are some highlights from today's first scrimmage:
First the defense
I think the biggest debate on the boards was about who will start at first and third.  Here is what we had.  Lee and McFarland played first and Gates and Kinley play third.
Saw two errors.  Shaddy had one go through his legs in the first and Wilson had an error at SS
One runner was gunned out at the plate and I saw several DPs.
McFarland had the play of the game at first. Dove to his left to catch a grounder that hooked behind
the bag and threw it to Knight who was covering the base...really nice play!

Hitters
Home runs:  Bonfield, Cole and Martin
Cole-Any concern about rust from not playing in the fall can be dismissed.  He had a homer, a double, a bunt for a hit and a walk
Bonfield - Homer, deep sac fly and 2 walks
Lots of scattered hits throughout the line up.  The strongest other batters were probably Gates, McFarland, Fletcher, Martin, and Turney.  Those that struggled today were Koch, Shaddy, and Kiersted,

Pitching
Knight started and was lights out.  5K, 1H no runs.  Under 40 pitches for 4 innings of work.
McKinney was the other starter and struggled some.  Probably his first outing outside facing live batters in over a year.   Had 1K, 3W, 2H and 3R over two innings.
Rutledge relieved Knight and had a really nice outing.  Faced just 15 batters over 4 innings.  No runs, 1K, 1W and just 2 hits. 
Bonnin came in and gave up the homer to Cole and had 3K and 4 W in his 1 2/3 work.  In his second inning of work, he struck out the first two batters and then walked the next three.
Loeske relieved McKinney and didn't have a good day.  8R, and 10H in an 1 2/3 inning. 
Riendl and Cronin closed the game.  Reindl may have faced the minimum number of batters over his two innings of work.  Cronin had 3K in the first inning but also had a walk and a hit batter.  Gave up a homer to Martin in the second inning of work.
Overall, about what I expected.  Lots of chatter on this board about bullpen depth.  It would be a challenge for any pitcher to face this line up also play the schedule we have.  I think the bullpen could end of being one of the strengths of this team come the end of April when the weekday games come to an end.  I think are number 4 and 5 starters are going to be really good.  We know what McKinney has done in the past, Rutledge is legit and we still have quite a few pitchers yet to see this week.
Logged

Sponsored Ad



Hogville encourages you to do business with the following...

Mr.Gruntastic

  • Band Nerd
  • **
  • Total likes: 0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 41
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2018, 02:29:07 am »

I'm thrilled McKinney is going to get a chance to play this year.  I didn't know if we'd see him pitch in a hog uniform again.  I've only heard good things about the kid.  Seems like he's the kind of person the world need more of.  He's gotta spot his fastball, and stay ahead in the count.  If not he gives up a lot of walks with that change up.  He's gonna battle.  I'm glad to have him back at whatever role he fills in for us.  Hope he has a hell of a year.
Logged

ucahogfan

Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2018, 05:37:27 pm »

Jaxhog,

Thank you for posting the reports that you do.  It is much appreciated.  I'm ready for this season to start already.
Logged

Bogey Golf

Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2018, 06:47:05 pm »

Want to reiterate Thanks to both Ucahogfan and Jaxhog for your posts and keeping us up to date with the day to day.
Logged

Jaxhog

  • Band Nerd
  • **
  • Total likes: 4
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 32
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2018, 10:02:33 pm »

Thanks UCA.  I didn't get to attend today's scrimmage but I saw that Fletcher had a pair of homers and Shaddy had one as well.  Also, Ramage was absolutely lights out. 
Logged

pigture perfect

Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2018, 10:17:59 pm »

I like that summary UCA, I am stoked at this point. I believe our defense will make even our bullpen look amazing. If our pitching can keep balls in the park and over the plate, this team will vacuum everything.
Logged

Mr.Gruntastic

  • Band Nerd
  • **
  • Total likes: 0
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 41
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2018, 11:44:44 pm »

If DVH has confidence in our bullpen.  I think that should alleviate a lot of people's worries.  It may be the weak link on this team, but in DVH I trust. Nobody has mentioned Scroggins, or Rampage this offseason.  There are gonna be arms to put on the bump.  We are about to see what these guys can do with Johnson working with them for 2 yrs now.  Sounds like everybody has made a jump in velocity.  Talked about Murphy making a bump in Velocity.  Batters already had a tough time putting a bat on the ball.  He no hit the NC Florida gators in the SEC tournament.  That put him up between 92-94 in the velocity department?  Crafty left with a 5-1 Sunday starter last year.  McKinney at 93 with a curve is extremely encouraging.   Lot of people forget this team also set an Arkansas record for strike outs in a season.  This staff actually has more potential than last years.  Last years staff was a big unknown.  With key injuries. Campbell, MCKinney, and Scroggins.  The year before that Jorns last year that staff took a lot of lumps.  We're in a way better spot than the last 2 yrs with this Staff. 

You can't pitch around anyone in our lineup.  We're gonna put a lot of pressure on other teams pitching staffs.  I'm more worried about other teams pitching staffs than ours. 
Logged

hogwild04

  • Bench Warmer
  • ***
  • Total likes: 2
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 83
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2018, 12:20:38 am »

This team can flat out hit, with so much depth it does not have a outstanding weakness.  Young unproven freshman only question.  With Knight and Campbell, we seem to have total package.   DVH stated Bonnin (who was the highest ranked recruit) requested to just pitch and been electric ever, since hit 97, remember this kid only started pitching not too long ago, DVH said he will be one of the best  he just has to cut down on walks, Rutledge will be a beast, they both need experience ,  We could have our 1 and 2 pitchers go in first round, this year then in 2 years have 2 more go in the first,  Cole being back is huge, looks like he did not miss a beat from injury, he looks even better as he went off in scrimmage.   Good to hear Turney  is practicing , just hope injuries wont plague him through his career.  Outfield  looks solid, infield as well.  3rd base is on position up for  semi grabs ,  we  need to start the season,  I would bet we put some football scores on the board.  Cannot imagine any other school having more mid 90s pitchers, we have a lot,  OMAHA Bound, Big expectations,
Logged

Jaxhog

  • Band Nerd
  • **
  • Total likes: 4
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 32
  • Surfing the web at Hogville.net
Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2018, 01:35:54 pm »

Check out Ryan Folkes preseason promo video featuring only returning players.  Really well done!  He also is posting some updates from today's schedule.

https://twitter.com/ryanfolkes?lang=en
Logged

dotnet

Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2018, 04:00:17 pm »

I'll bite - with this caveat:  Some people never give 80's, some people do.  I do.  But, I also think almost any big time program can have an 80 grade at several categories.  Even when Arkansas was struggling offensively, you had enough solid players and highly recruited players that you could imagine a scenario where everything broke right and elite happened. 

With that out of the way:

Hitting
80/50/70 (ceiling/floor/most likely)

I don't have much to add.  There will not be a spot that doesn't have legit all conference possibilities - with 1/3 being the two least likely.  If this doesn't have the chance at 80, I don't know what is. 

For those unaware, 50 is average.  I can paint a scenario where average happens, though I went with 70 as most likely which is closer to 80 than 50. 

Power - 80/55/70

80 is more likely in power than hitting in my mind. 

Speed - 65/50/55

I actually like the speed on this team.  There are no elite base stealers - with Casey Martin a possible exception - but there are a lot of really good base runners on this team which is more important than stealing bases to me.  Taking the extra base when you should, getting good secondary leads so you can score from second on a hard hit ball, etc. 

Fletcher, Lee, Cole, McFarland, Shaddy, Martin, etc.  all guys who should be pretty good at this.  Koch wasn't terrible either.  Bonfield and Gates are the two biggest question marks here if my memory serves me correctly.  This is hard because there aren't good stats to look at objectively. 

Starting pitching  70/50/60

I am "only" going with above average due to concerns about the ceiling of Murphy and the need to prove it of Campbell.  There is just too much risk to objectively grade this higher to me. 

Even if Campbell and Knight are as good as advertised, I don't think Murphy will be a Friday night caliber player, which is what is needed for an 80 in my mind. 

You could argue I should bump up every grade by 5 to account for the excellent depth.  Assuming at least one freshman is ready for a midweek guy, McKinney is a luxury for a mid week starting spot.  That is unusual.

Relief - 60/40/50

There are a lot of arms and a lot of potential.  I agree.  A grand total of one guy has really proven it back there for longer than a couple of week stretch.  See prior comment about how this is Arkansas baseball and you could argue the ceiling on every position is 80. 

but there is risk here.  There is risk of throwing enough strikes, getting enough guys out, etc. 

Defense - 70/50/60

60 is really good.  But it is lower than what some people will have solely because I think Gates will play a decent amount of 3b, and I don't think he is that great over there.  I'm not sure how good Kjerstad is in left, and if Bonfield plays there... I'm sure hes improved but..

With that said, again, 60 is really good.  The main issue, is there are only two guys who are above 60 at their position to me: Koch and Fletcher.  So the total isn't likely to be higher than that (there is an argument on biggers, but I think his range is limited - again relative to being called plus plus).  I think Cole's range in RF is excellent - he could play CF - but I'm not sure his arm better than plus. 

Intangibles - 65

Its hard to judge without seeing a tough stretch happen. But this is a really fun team to root for.  There isn't a single player I groan when thinking about having to watch or the sure fire arguments.  People may want to see Willson, Kenley, lee, Mcfarland, Turney, etc. play more... but thats because there is a quality player scheduled to be above them so argue away. 

Overall

the post season is a crap shoot - but I think the current goal should be to host a super.  after that, anything can happen and it'll be fun to watch. 

Logged

ucahogfan

Re: Using the 20-80 Scale - Grade the 2017 Hogs
« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2018, 07:48:37 pm »

dotnet,

Thank you for posting.  I agree with you on most of what you post.  Both of us are extremely high on this offense especially the power aspect.  If the jump is real for several hitters that DVH has talked about, setting a school record in HRs is not out of the question.

I'm optimistic about our pen, but also very skeptical which is why they have the biggest range of variance.  It could be an excellent pen or it could be an adventure.  Reindl is the proven arm, but we have several premium arms such as Cronin who have a high ceiling.

I'm really excited for this team and want to see the succeed.
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
 

KARK
KWNA
Fox 16 Arkansas