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Author Topic: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee  (Read 2147 times)

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sevenof400

Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« on: January 20, 2018, 03:51:11 pm »

From the article on ESPN at: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22144913/ncaa-says-year-test-run-new-evaluation-system

This has been in the works for sometime, but it appears to be gaining momentum. 
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niels_boar

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Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2018, 05:05:05 pm »

They should use the median instead of the mean.  It's a measure that is less sensitive to one poll being a major outlier.
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Adam Stokes

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #2 on: January 20, 2018, 05:11:03 pm »

That's too bad for us, it is much easier to game RPI than it is the other metrics. Glad we took advantage of it while we could.
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sevenof400

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2018, 08:37:56 pm »

That's too bad for us, it is much easier to game RPI than it is the other metrics. Glad we took advantage of it while we could.

But I hope someone within the Arkansas AD is studying this and working to determine what kind of OOC schedule will best take advantage of the new metrics  in order to maximize NCAA bid potential.
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latrops

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Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2018, 08:45:54 pm »

But I hope someone within the Arkansas AD is studying this and working to determine what kind of OOC schedule will best take advantage of the new metrics  in order to maximize NCAA bid potential.

I would like for the program at some point get back to being so good that we consistently know we are solidly in the NCAAT, regardless of what criteria the selection committee uses.
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lakecityhog

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2018, 08:59:23 pm »

Criteria, metrics, RPI, Polls and any other data used by the committee is used for 1 thing and 1 thing only---to justify their decisions!
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2018, 10:52:10 am »

I would like for the program at some point get back to being so good that we consistently know we are solidly in the NCAAT, regardless of what criteria the selection committee uses.

Doesn’t work like that anymore. Metrics affect seeding more than tournament invites. Ask Wichita St about last season.
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jbcarol

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2018, 07:37:17 am »

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Adam Stokes

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2018, 07:47:57 am »

Criteria, metrics, RPI, Polls and any other data used by the committee is used for 1 thing and 1 thing only---to justify their decisions!

But I don't feel like Arkansas necessarily gets the shaft that often. Heck, we were put in in '07 over Syracuse. We normally end up where we think we should be.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2018, 08:26:06 am »



Maybe they should have just used Holt Winters triple exponential smoothing and a little linear regression....
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PonderinHog

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Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2018, 08:32:46 am »

Maybe they should have just used Holt Winters triple exponential smoothing and a little linear regression....
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rljjr

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2018, 08:35:56 am »

For a major conference team the best metric is just to win. I remember the days when we did that a lot, and making the tourney was a given before the season started.
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jst01

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2018, 08:37:09 am »

So these last two home wins fall into Quad 3? SC and Vandy are both 75+ rpi.   Hogs have a shot at some Quad 1 games to finish the year. All questions are about to be answered
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sevenof400

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2018, 08:39:30 am »

Maybe they should have just used Holt Winters triple exponential smoothing and a little linear regression....

I think a smooth bourbon could get that job done a lot faster.....

Hell, even a rough bourbon could...
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cram224

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #14 on: February 12, 2018, 08:03:36 am »

All this only matters to teams in the bottom of the pack. Win your conference and you will get a high seed.
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Smalltownhog95

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Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2018, 10:07:10 pm »

I studied the new metric very closely. It still came out with us playing North Carolina ;)
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3of5-2

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Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #16 on: February 12, 2018, 10:31:26 pm »


Still to this day, one of the absolute best.
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Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2018, 08:09:47 am »

This is the most telling statement in the article,

"Again, this isn't anything new that's being provided to the committee," Worlock said. "It's just being presented in a different, more convenient and more efficient format. As with any resource that the committee has at its disposal, a committee member can use it as they see fit."

In other words,

1. Duke
2. North Carolina
3. Kansas
4. Kentucky
Etc
Etc
Etc
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widespreadsooie

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #18 on: February 14, 2018, 09:46:33 am »

I would like to see a panel of individuals who are regarded as having a high basketball mind or IQ. People who have been around the game for decades, respected coaches ideally, and have a lot of time to watch basketball. Let them determine their own metrics or qualifications for seeding. I get the advanced metrics angle but to me it seems like data overload for something as simple as seeding a basketball tournament.
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jbcarol

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jbcarol

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #20 on: February 18, 2018, 08:21:01 am »

What actually is on an NCAA Tournament resume may surprise you

Take a look what the selection committee is actually looking at when they make their decisions


Quote
The only opinion that really matters on that subject is that of the NCAA selection committee. So, in the interest of settling those disputes, here is what an actual NCAA Tournament resume, or what the committee calls a "team sheet" looks like [post above].

Quadrant 1: Games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, Neutral vs 1-50, Road vs 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home vs 31-75, Neutral vs 51-100, Road vs 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home vs 76-160, Neutral vs 101-200, Road vs 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home vs 161+, Neutral vs 201+, Road vs 241+

Note what is not included on the team sheets:

    Conference record and standings: 
    Ken Pomeroy groupings:
    Record in last X-number of games
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jbcarol

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #21 on: February 18, 2018, 08:25:18 am »

Arkansas Record vs. RPI Groups


Group Record
1         5 - 7
2         1 - 1
3         8 - 0
4         5 - 0
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31to6

Re: Worth Noting: New Metrics used by NCAA Committee
« Reply #22 on: February 18, 2018, 01:28:54 pm »

From the article on ESPN at: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22144913/ncaa-says-year-test-run-new-evaluation-system

This has been in the works for sometime, but it appears to be gaining momentum. 
The more they move toward metrics and away from “resume” “eye test” and other beauty contest type systems, the better it is for everyone. This is particularly true of schools like Arkansas who can surge and have good seasons but, at least right now, are not perennial “ins” who will get the benefit of the doubt.

It also gets rid of all the nonsense about “well, they lost key games due to injury” and then the blue blood they let limp in with a losing conference record gets smoked by a midmajor. Well sorry, it’s a contact sport and injuries happen and depth is part of what makes a team good. That’s why it’s called a team.
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