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Author Topic: Last offensive possession shows the problem  (Read 1610 times)

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hogsanity

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Last offensive possession shows the problem
« on: January 13, 2018, 10:18:49 pm »

Gafford has been unstoppable for 4 minutes, both Mizzu bigs are out, Gafford sets a screen, Mizzu switches so Gafford has about a 8 inch size advantage, pins his man has, an open lane and Macon just dribbles until he has to jack a 25 ft contested 3. Why? Because he and Barford and Beard are going to get their's or die trying.
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rzrbackramsfan

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2018, 10:29:26 pm »

I know exactly what youíre talking about and agree, that ball shouldíve gone to Gafford. 

On another earlier play, Gafford has his man on the post and beard had the ball and just stared at Gafford before passing it out on top, frustrating. 

Iím sure mike and staff will see the same thing, theyíll fine tune.  Last year he emphasized getting the ball down to Moses more.  CMA just has a different timeline and way of handling things than higville.
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2018, 10:30:24 pm »

Gafford has been unstoppable for 4 minutes, both Mizzu bigs are out, Gafford sets a screen, Mizzu switches so Gafford has about a 8 inch size advantage, pins his man has, an open lane and Macon just dribbles until he has to jack a 25 ft contested 3. Why? Because he and Barford and Beard are going to get their's or die trying.
I would agree. At the beginning of the season the Hogs really didn't know what Gafford could and could not do at this level. Well, that question has been answered. The Hogs should start our offense inside to outside instead of outside to inside. In other words, instead of dribbling around the 3 point line trying to get an open look at a 3, the Hogs need to get the ball to the wings and enter the ball into the post once Gafford makes himself available for the 45 degree entry pass. If Gafford gets double teamed he kicks it back outside to the open man for a look at a 3, if he does not get doubled, dare I say he can beat almost all of the centers in the SEC one on one. If we do the right thing, we may not be the Fastest 40 Minutes any longer but we will win a heck of a lot of games 69-58 in the SEC. It's really simple.
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2018, 10:31:48 pm »

UntilGafford is trustworthy at the line, you canít lean too heavy on him late in games
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Iwastherein1969

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2018, 10:34:12 pm »

UntilGafford is trustworthy at the line, you canít lean too heavy on him late in games
How does one get trust worthy until you give him the chance. Besides, I can't think of anyone who I feel as though they are going to make both ends of a one and one late in the game. One other thing, Gafford will likely get 2 shots as most of the fouls on him will be on the shot, not on the dribble.
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hogsanity

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2018, 10:38:46 pm »

UntilGafford is trustworthy at the line, you canít lean too heavy on him late in games

If not for Gafford the losing streak would be 4. Actually, it would be 5 because they do not beat TN without his play late either.
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pigture perfect

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2018, 10:44:10 pm »

Terrible last possession. Airball!
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2018, 10:53:13 pm »

How does one get trust worthy until you give him the chance. Besides, I can't think of anyone who I feel as though they are going to make both ends of a one and one late in the game. One other thing, Gafford will likely get 2 shots as most of the fouls on him will be on the shot, not on the dribble.

So you TRUST a 50% ft shooter to take you home in close games?

There is a pretty good body of work to make decisions with now. In the NBA, Gafford wouldnít be on the closing 5 because of ftís but he will win games missing them in college?
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hogsanity

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2018, 10:57:03 pm »

So you TRUST a 50% ft shooter to take you home in close games?

There is a pretty good body of work to make decisions with now. In the NBA, Gafford wouldnít be on the closing 5 because of ftís but he will win games missing them in college?

Really? You are better than this. So you'd rather take your chances with a 25ft contested 3 than throw it to Gafford when he has inside position and a huge height advantage? The Hogs were up 2 and they had not stopped Gafford for the last 3 or 4 trips.
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2018, 10:58:02 pm »

If not for Gafford the losing streak would be 4. Actually, it would be 5 because they do not beat TN without his play late either.

Duh, but he didnít do it at the free throw line and I am betting nearly all his late buckets are assisted not post entry and beat your man plays either.

I think during first 35 mins they should let him work as much as he can handle. The last 5 you canít afford him to be at the line.
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2018, 11:00:58 pm »

Really? You are better than this. So you'd rather take your chances with a 25ft contested 3 than throw it to Gafford when he has inside position and a huge height advantage? The Hogs were up 2 and they had not stopped Gafford for the last 3 or 4 trips.

Gaffordís late buckets werenít post ups. Did you even watch? The winning bucket was an oop. His second half buckets were penetrate and dish buckets.

You need to step up your game and talk actual events versus your desires.
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ShadowHawg

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2018, 11:20:36 pm »

http://www.sfandllaw.com/Articles/What-Wins-Basketball-Games-a-Review-of-Basketball-on-Paper-Rules-and-Tools-for-Performance-Analysis.shtml

This is something you would like. It will help you back up a lot of your posts. Itís one opinion but it has been quantified.

There are lots of tools and discussions like these to be found out there.

Seems like I read a published thesis on factors that win and lose games as well.

I think you would enjoy this kind of stuff and may help you understand that people who disagree with you may already have upped their understanding.
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Rbill

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2018, 11:23:57 pm »

Yeah it was awful. Our favorite play. The funny thing is Macon came down the floor with his hand up as if it was a play call.

We played really well the first 5 to 10 minutes. We generally struggled when Gafford was on the bench like we always do. And there is just a whole lot of guards staring at Gafford and declining to pass down low. What's the deal?
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razorback1829

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2018, 11:29:11 pm »

Yeah it was awful. Our favorite play. The funny thing is Macon came down the floor with his hand up as if it was a play call.

We played really well the first 5 to 10 minutes. We generally struggled when Gafford was on the bench like we always do. And there is just a whole lot of guards staring at Gafford and declining to pass down low. What's the deal?

It was dummy. But D4 being who he his, made his own call. Y'all are clowns. Y'all know nothing about the game. Just keep coaching from the couch.
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Rbill

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2018, 11:42:56 pm »

It was dummy. But D4 being who he his, made his own call. Y'all are clowns. Y'all know nothing about the game. Just keep coaching from the couch.

Try not to concern yourself any further. You seem stressed out. You don't seem interested in talking about improvements that can be made to make us even better, so just go enjoy the win and relax.
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niels_boar

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2018, 12:13:28 am »

Macon had 8 assists today.  That was 5 more than anybody else on the court. He was fourth on the team in FGAs.  Going forward we need him to take and make more shots if we are going to get where we need to be.  Being too selfish wasn't his problem today.  After Mizzou went up by 6 he had 3 assists and our only defensive rebound of the final four minutes that setup the last possession.

Maybe he should have dumped it to Gafford on the last possession, but maybe he should be cut some slack by fans who can make every decision perfectly sitting in the stands. Offside help was cheating towards Gafford.  He would have been doubled by the time the ball got to him. I've seen Macon make that step-back three for two years now.  He's got the church bells to take it.  I don't believe for a second that anybody failed to feed Gafford out of selfishness.  The guards are sometimes risk averse at feeding the post to avoid TOs, and Gafford doesn't get those dunks if the pick n' roll D doesn't have to respect Macon's ability to rise up.  Kudos to Gafford for being awesome, and kudos to Macon for playing almost perfectly when we were down 6 points and 4 minutes from a four-game losing streak.

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niels_boar

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2018, 12:37:14 am »

I just looked at the tape on the last possession.  6-10 Reed Nikko was playing a zone  and was in the middle of the lane.  Mizzou left Beard alone behind the arc at the Arkansas bench.  Gafford was going to have Nikko behind him and a guard doubling him unless Macon made a perfect lob to get Gafford behind both.  If we had started the action earlier, Macon could perhaps have driven around his defender and made Nikko commit, but that would have brought three defenders in the lane.  The last thing that we wanted was a live-action TO leading to an easy basket at the other end.  Moral of the story: don't let the announcers tell you what to think.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 12:57:27 am by niels_boar »
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LRHawg

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2018, 12:45:19 am »

Macon looked frustrated at times today but was clutch the last few minutes. He was also fouled right before MO's last three attempt. I think he'll find his shot again soon.
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popcornhog

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2018, 01:08:38 am »

How does one get trust worthy until you give him the chance. Besides, I can't think of anyone who I feel as though they are going to make both ends of a one and one late in the game. One other thing, Gafford will likely get 2 shots as most of the fouls on him will be on the shot, not on the dribble.

Itís a fair point. Gaffordís missed FT at the end of the game couldíve cost the game. He really needs to improve at the line. But he is flat out incredible and we absolutely do need to work the ball through him on more possessions in the half court game.

Barford/Macon/Gafford make up one of the best trifectas in the game. This team can still do great things but we have got to clean some things up.
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Kevin

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2018, 06:59:16 am »

Go back and look at the last two pick and roll plays. On the dunk Thomas was properly positioned in the short corner near the baseline. When Macon come off the pick he is driving to that side so Thomas man can not help. Plus beard was up on the opposite wing so when gafford rolled he ran right past him. 

The last play Thomas was in the wrong short corner. So when gafford rolled and they switched Thomas man a bigger player was able to be in help position.

Macon had 2 good choices. He could have thrown it in there gafford gets fouled or drive the ball put pressure on the defense to have to make a play. Doing a impression of Steph curry was not a good play.
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Pinto

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2018, 08:01:09 am »

UntilGafford is trustworthy at the line, you canít lean too heavy on him late in games

Ummm heís the reason we won several games in late situations...
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Danny J

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2018, 08:07:14 am »

Yeah it was awful. Our favorite play. The funny thing is Macon came down the floor with his hand up as if it was a play call.

We played really well the first 5 to 10 minutes. We generally struggled when Gafford was on the bench like we always do. And there is just a whole lot of guards staring at Gafford and declining to pass down low. What's the deal?
Beard had a hell of a time getting the ball to Gafford because of his height. He was trying to throw over and around a guy much taller/longer.

The entire offense needs to be run through Gafford...period. If Macon wants to be selfish and hack 25' contested air balls then sit him. Nolan would have.
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King Kong

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2018, 08:38:20 am »

I prefer the ball stay in Maconís hands. If we just threw to Gafford they would have fouled immediately and put him on the line.
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k.c.hawg

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2018, 09:05:00 am »

It's not surprising how quick things turn in jumo ball. After the Tenner game 95% of the sentiment was "Macon should have taken that shot". Now he is selfish and just trying to get his.
Beard had a hell of a time getting the ball to Gafford because of his height. He was trying to throw over and around a guy much taller/longer.

The entire offense needs to be run through Gafford...period. If Macon wants to be selfish and hack 25' contested air balls then sit him. Nolan would have.

Ridiculous comment about Macon. He came off the bench....playing his butt off.......not pouting like most starters in todays college game would. In 26 minutes he took 7 shots and in doing so also got to the line 5 times. He's a shooting guard trying to function as a pg as well and he put up 8 assists, 6 rebounds and a steal. He made sure he got the player that everyone is crediting with winning the game, involved in the game. And Nolan would not have benched him for missing that shot.....Nolan wanted guys that would take the shot and he didn't penalize them for missing. Missed shots are a part of basketball.

And as bad of a a stretch as Macon has had, he is first on the team in assists by a large margin, first in steals, best 3 point shooter, best free throw shooter. Yep, sounds like the guy that should be benched.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 11:13:08 am by k.c.hawg »
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lynbug

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2018, 09:08:21 am »

Gafford has been unstoppable for 4 minutes, both Mizzu bigs are out, Gafford sets a screen, Mizzu switches so Gafford has about a 8 inch size advantage, pins his man has, an open lane and Macon just dribbles until he has to jack a 25 ft contested 3. Why? Because he and Barford and Beard are going to get their's or die trying.
Couldn't have stated it better.  Just posted that Gafford needs to get at east one touch per possession.  Highest percentage shots, right?
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lynbug

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #25 on: January 14, 2018, 09:11:20 am »

I prefer the ball stay in Maconís hands. If we just threw to Gafford they would have fouled immediately and put him on the line.
OOPS!  How could I momentarily have forgotten a bout that Gafford's FT woes. 
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k.c.hawg

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #26 on: January 14, 2018, 09:17:51 am »

OOPS!  How could I momentarily have forgotten a bout that Gafford's FT woes. 

One of the most amazing young players we've had in 20+ years but he is 47/87 and @ 54% has the lowest % on the team of anyone with an appreciable number of free throws.
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lynbug

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #27 on: January 14, 2018, 09:28:39 am »

One of the most amazing young players we've had in 20+ years but he is 47/87 and @ 54% has the lowest % on the team of anyone with an appreciable number of free throws.
Which minimizes his crunch-time value in the paint.  I'm sure the other teams know about his FT%.  Did he have this problem in high school?
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k.c.hawg

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #28 on: January 14, 2018, 09:34:31 am »

Which minimizes his crunch-time value in the paint.  I'm sure the other teams know about his FT%.  Did he have this problem in high school?

I'm not sure. He really hasn't played that long, guys like Macon have been shooting the ball from the free throw line thousands of times a year since they were 5 or 6 years old. It doesn't look like a real problem with his stroke. Every now and then the ball comes out a little flat. He will shoot one and it looks like Dusty Hannahs shot it and the next will be a little long.
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hobhog

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2018, 09:36:24 am »

Dribble down clock and shoot the three is what MAs teams have done since he's been here. Drives me nuts.
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k.c.hawg

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2018, 09:39:17 am »

Dribble down clock and shoot the three is what MAs teams have done since he's been here. Drives me nuts.

Your crowd projection was off a little. Crowd was large and energetic, when it counted. How did Oaklawn treat you?
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la20688

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #31 on: January 14, 2018, 11:09:24 am »

Macon had 8 assists today.  That was 5 more than anybody else on the court. He was fourth on the team in FGAs.  Going forward we need him to take and make more shots if we are going to get where we need to be.  Being too selfish wasn't his problem today.  After Mizzou went up by 6 he had 3 assists and our only defensive rebound of the final four minutes that setup the last possession.

Maybe he should have dumped it to Gafford on the last possession, but maybe he should be cut some slack by fans who can make every decision perfectly sitting in the stands. Offside help was cheating towards Gafford.  He would have been doubled by the time the ball got to him. I've seen Macon make that step-back three for two years now.  He's got the church bells to take it.  I don't believe for a second that anybody failed to feed Gafford out of selfishness.  The guards are sometimes risk averse at feeding the post to avoid TOs, and Gafford doesn't get those dunks if the pick n' roll D doesn't have to respect Macon's ability to rise up.  Kudos to Gafford for being awesome, and kudos to Macon for playing almost perfectly when we were down 6 points and 4 minutes from a four-game losing streak.
Could not agree more. I said basically the  same thing yesterday in game thread. Gafford was the player of the game but without Macon, there is no way we win that game. Itís so easy for people th second guess after watching a replay two or three times.
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Kevin McPherson

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Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #32 on: January 14, 2018, 12:11:53 pm »

Macon played a helluva game yesterday. Hit a 3 off the bench that put Hogs up 10-7 and triggered a 21-3 run. He tied for team-high 6 rebounds. He reacted perfectly to Puryear's illegal screen late to help sell that offensive foul turnover on Mizzou, something that helped turn the game. Of his 8 assists, 4 came late -- he found Thomas alone underneath in secondary transition to extend lead from 2 to 4 ... then down the stretch when Hogs fell behind, he & Gafford worked the 2-man pick-&-roll game almost to perfection, resulting in 3 MUST-have buckets to catch the Hogs up and finally put them back in the lead ... BUT ...

I do agree that Macon made the wrong play on the final possession. Arkansas got a favorable matchup on the switch that had Geist trying to handle Gafford down low. Yes, Mizzou had a defender playing an area in the lane who hedged toward helping on Gafford, but it was Van Leer (a perimeter player with limited athleticism). And Macon had Puryear on an island out front.

In that situation with a 2-point lead, the 2 best options are these: Macon needs to either lob to Gafford or drive the ball to the middle of the paint and force Van Leer to either help on him or help cover up Gafford -- I prefer Macon to drive the ball over any other Hog in that pick-&-choose scenario because he can either finish, get fouled and he's your best FT shooter, or make a pass for a Gafford finish. OR had Macon kept Puryear out high/away from the basket and lobbed to Gafford, the big man likely powers over-&-through to finish on the heads of both Geist and Van Leer, or at minimum gets to the FT line where the percentages favor at least 1-of-2 making a 2-point lead a 3-point lead.

Third option was the one Macon chose, which was using his dribble trying to free up enough space to get off a clean look from 3, but Macon never shook Puryear enough to get a great look in rhythm. We know Macon is clutch, we know he can use the bounce to set himself up for rhythm 3s, but the other options were better -- and PROVEN in the preceeding possessions.

Easy for me to sit at the press table and think "oh no" he didn't go with the better options, I get that. And I'm not down on Daryl at all. He played a STRONG overall floor game, especially as facilitator-in-chief for a team lacking a true PG/floor-leader. And he did it playing off the bench for the first time, midway through a senior campaign where he's proven to be one of the best guards in the SEC. He put ego aside and consistently made tough and timely plays, affecting a huge impact on the Hogs winning that game, and he also came up big in their only other SEC win to this point against TN.

Without his playmaking yesterday, Arkansas loses its 4th straight game. And if you think about that lob he made to Gafford that proved to be the game-winner, his feel, vision, timing, placement while dribbling away from Gafford ALL conspired to make a breath-taking play that pushed Hogs to 2-3 in the SEC while snapping a 3-game skid.
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BDSCT51

Re: Last offensive possession shows the problem
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2018, 12:23:04 pm »

Macon played a helluva game yesterday. Hit a 3 off the bench that put Hogs up 10-7 and triggered a 21-3 run. He tied for team-high 6 rebounds. He reacted perfectly to Puryear's illegal screen late to help sell that offensive foul turnover on Mizzou, something that helped turn the game. Of his 8 assists, 4 came late -- he found Thomas alone underneath in secondary transition to extend lead from 2 to 4 ... then down the stretch when Hogs fell behind, he & Gafford worked the 2-man pick-&-roll game almost to perfection, resulting in 3 MUST-have buckets to catch the Hogs up and finally put them back in the lead ... BUT ...

I do agree that Macon made the wrong play on the final possession. Arkansas got a favorable matchup on the switch that had Geist trying to handle Gafford down low. Yes, Mizzou had a defender playing an area in the lane who hedged toward helping on Gafford, but it was Van Leer (a perimeter player with limited athleticism). And Macon had Puryear on an island out front.

In that situation with a 2-point lead, the 2 best options are these: Macon needs to either lob to Gafford or drive the ball to the middle of the paint and force Van Leer to either help on him or help cover up Gafford -- I prefer Macon to drive the ball over any other Hog in that pick-&-choose scenario because he can either finish, get fouled and he's your best FT shooter, or make a pass for a Gafford finish. OR had Macon kept Puryear out high/away from the basket and lobbed to Gafford, the big man likely powers over-&-through to finish on the heads of both Geist and Van Leer, or at minimum gets to the FT line where the percentages favor at least 1-of-2 making a 2-point lead a 3-point lead.

Third option was the one Macon chose, which was using his dribble trying to free up enough space to get off a clean look from 3, but Macon never shook Puryear enough to get a great look in rhythm. We know Macon is clutch, we know he can use the bounce to set himself up for rhythm 3s, but the other options were better -- and PROVEN in the preceeding possessions.

Easy for me to sit at the press table and think "oh no" he didn't go with the better options, I get that. And I'm not down on Daryl at all. He played a STRONG overall floor game, especially as facilitator-in-chief for a team lacking a true PG/floor-leader. And he did it playing off the bench for the first time, midway through a senior campaign where he's proven to be one of the best guards in the SEC. He put ego aside and consistently made tough and timely plays, affecting a huge impact on the Hogs winning that game, and he also came up big in their only other SEC win to this point against TN.

Without his playmaking yesterday, Arkansas loses its 4th straight game. And if you think about that lob he made to Gafford that proved to be the game-winner, his feel, vision, timing, placement while dribbling away from Gafford ALL conspired to make a breath-taking play that pushed Hogs to 2-3 in the SEC while snapping a 3-game skid.

Attention Hogville consultant coaches: Read this. Read it again. Read it three times. It is correct in its conclusions.
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