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Author Topic: A stat that explains a lot, turnover margin and totals  (Read 295 times)

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hogsanity

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A stat that explains a lot, turnover margin and totals
« on: January 11, 2018, 08:58:49 am »

For the Hogs to win they HAVE to win the turnover battle AND have the opponent commit 12-15 live ball turnovers, where the Hogs can get out and run. In their last 4 losses the Hogs have lost the turnover battle by 11 and only seen the opponent turn it over an avg of 9 times a game in those 4 losses.

The problem is, so many players now handle the ball so well that creating turnovers is very hard, leads to too many open 3's and layups, expends a ton of energy which can effect your own shooting, and leads to fouls.

Gone are the days where teams are going to turn it over 20+ times a game, unless it is just a really bad team.
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niels_boar

Re: A stat that explains a lot, turnover margin and totals
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2018, 01:19:51 am »

That's an exaggeration. We've forced 20+ TOs in only one win.  We beat Minnesota after forcing only 10 and UT after forcing 13.  We were +9 in TOs at the PK80 against those crappy guards that we faced there like Joel Berry, Trae Young, and Jalen Adams.

The TOs haven't been absolutely necessary to the O, though easy baskets are always a plus.  In fact, before the LSU game we were 3rd in the SEC in offensive points per possession.  We had scored 1.14 ppp (UT), 1.10 (MSU), and 1.08 (Auburn).  We then scored 0.81 ppp against LSU.  To put that in perspective, no team except Samford has been worse in BWA this season.  Geez, our lowest total last season in SEC play was 0.96 at UF.  Just a god awful performance.  Heaven help us if it isn't a major outlier.

If we are trying to force TOs, we have to accomplish it.  Given that our rebounding percentages are actually up, CMA has perhaps backed of the pressure.  However, if we do that, it has to be accompanied by forcing low FG percentages.  We did that against MSU but didn't rebound.  We rebounded against Auburn but gave up a ton of treys.  LSU was only 4 of 19 from the arc and didn't hurt us on the glass.  However, they got any shot they wanted in the lane.  The question right now is what are we trying to accomplish.

We won 8 SEC games last year when we lost the TO battle.  Hence, I wouldn't be drawing any grand trends in college basketball relative to our system based on the last three games.
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HogBreath

Re: A stat that explains a lot, turnover margin and totals
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2018, 01:47:04 am »

Hogsanity should call Niels - Boar the bus driver, since Niels just took him to school.
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hogsanity

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Re: A stat that explains a lot, turnover margin and totals
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2018, 09:37:18 am »

That's an exaggeration. We've forced 20+ TOs in only one win.  We beat Minnesota after forcing only 10 and UT after forcing 13.  We were +9 in TOs at the PK80 against those crappy guards that we faced there like Joel Berry, Trae Young, and Jalen Adams.

The TOs haven't been absolutely necessary to the O, though easy baskets are always a plus.  In fact, before the LSU game we were 3rd in the SEC in offensive points per possession.  We had scored 1.14 ppp (UT), 1.10 (MSU), and 1.08 (Auburn).  We then scored 0.81 ppp against LSU.  To put that in perspective, no team except Samford has been worse in BWA this season.  Geez, our lowest total last season in SEC play was 0.96 at UF.  Just a god awful performance.  Heaven help us if it isn't a major outlier.

If we are trying to force TOs, we have to accomplish it.  Given that our rebounding percentages are actually up, CMA has perhaps backed of the pressure.  However, if we do that, it has to be accompanied by forcing low FG percentages.  We did that against MSU but didn't rebound.  We rebounded against Auburn but gave up a ton of treys.  LSU was only 4 of 19 from the arc and didn't hurt us on the glass.  However, they got any shot they wanted in the lane.  The question right now is what are we trying to accomplish.

We won 8 SEC games last year when we lost the TO battle.  Hence, I wouldn't be drawing any grand trends in college basketball relative to our system based on the last three games.

Yet Mike continues to say we have to have turnovers, that is his main philosophy, turn the other team over to get transition baskets and speed up the game.
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yocdaddy

Re: A stat that explains a lot, turnover margin and totals
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2018, 10:17:45 am »

There are four factors that are statistically more important than others when it comes to winning basketball.  These are not my opinions, but are backed up by enormous amounts of statistical data.

1. Most important - eFG%
2. TOR - turnovers per 100 possessions
3. Off Rebound % - What percentage of misses are offensively rebounded.
4. FT Rating - How many free throws are produced per offensive shot - In other words, are you shooting too many jumpers and not attacking the rim.

The Hogs have a mid 30's ranking in eFG% and do take care of the basketball.  We do not offensive rebound well and do not create a high volume of free throws.

It is safe to say that the teams we are playing are just as good or better in these four factors, thus, tough to win games.
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