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Author Topic: Predictions for 2018?  (Read 385 times)

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HawgWild

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Predictions for 2018?
« on: January 01, 2018, 01:46:45 pm »

Anyone care to offer one or two nuggets of investment wisdom for the coming year? None from me. I know that I don't have a clue. I'll probably stay the course with my "widows & orphans" stocks.
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WaltKowalski

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2018, 05:38:39 pm »

Not exactly a bold prediction but Amazon will split this year
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NuttinItUp

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2018, 07:02:19 pm »

Any company working on one of the following: self driving cars, blockchain technology, AI.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2018, 07:53:19 am »

In terms of tech, I also like the autonomous driving, blockchain, AI, cloud, and data services themes. If history repeats itself, tech could see early 2018 profits being taken so there could be decent buying opportunities in names like MSFT, NVDA, GOOG/GOOGL, INTC, AVGO, etc. in the near term 2-6ish weeks. I also like PYPL on a pullback. 

Infrastructure plays like NUE, CAT, and even material/commodity names like FCX could have some/more upside if politics/deficit concerns don't stall things.  I also recently initiated a small position in the gold ETF (GLD) as a volatility/ geopolitical uncertainty play as it had support around $120 and despite the bitcoin euphoria, I think having 2-5% of your portfolio in gold isn't a bad move.

I'm also really curious to see how retailing performs in the first half. While it was beaten up badly outside HD and WMT for most of 2017, a lot of domestic retailers will have really soft comps, especially in the first half of 2018, plus tax benefits coming. Names like Macy's could continue their recent run in the first quarter or two. TJX is a caution in early 2018 as post holiday inventories are much leaner and it probably would be a better buy on some news of JCP, Sears, and other sector strugglers closing more stores.

Financials look to be weak in early 2018 on profit taking and interest rate potential being priced in but look solid long.  Lastly, I think some of the beaten up energy names could be bargain buys down here. SLB, KM, XEC, etc. on a pull back are good but with the understanding that oil will likely see it's room to run capped by high global supply.

Europe and emerging market names are still less expensive right now so having some exposure there I think is a plus. Just some initial thoughts either way. I've taken some profits as of late and am looking to rotate thing a bit myself.

« Last Edit: January 02, 2018, 08:03:42 am by Darrell Royal's Floating Flaming Fulminating Spectral Head »
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ricepig

Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2018, 08:05:34 am »

In terms of tech, I also like the autonomous driving, blockchain, AI, cloud, and data services themes. If history repeats itself, tech could see early 2018 profits being taken so there could be decent buying opportunities in names like MSFT, NVDA, GOOG/GOOGL, INTC, AVGO, etc. in the near term 2-6ish weeks. I also like PYPL on a pullback. 

Infrastructure plays like NUE, CAT, and even material/commodity names like FCX could have some/more upside if politics/deficit concerns don't stall things.  I also recently initiated a small position in the gold ETF (GLD) as a volatility/ geopolitical uncertainty play as it had support around $120 and despite the bitcoin euphoria, I think having 2-5% of your portfolio in gold isn't a bad move.

I'm also really curious to see how retailing performs in the first half. While it was beaten up badly outside HD and WMT for most of 2017, a lot of domestic retailers will have really soft comps, especially in the first half of 2018, plus tax benefits coming. Names like Macy's could continue their recent run in the first quarter or two. TJX is a caution in early 2018 as post holiday inventories are much leaner and it probably would be a better buy on some news of JCP, Sears, and other sector strugglers closing more stores.

Financials look to be weak in early 2018 on profit taking and interest rate potential being priced in but look solid long.  Lastly, I think some of the beaten up energy names could be bargain buys down here. SLB, KM, XEC, etc. on a pull back are good but with the understanding that oil will likely see it's room to run capped by high global supply.

Europe and emerging market names are still less expensive right now so having some exposure there I think is a plus. Just some initial thoughts either way. I've taken some profits as of late and am looking to rotate thing a bit myself.



Oh...I just wanted one stock that was going to go up 4%......
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2018, 04:01:23 pm »

Oh...I just wanted one stock that was going to go up 4%......

Then NUE would be your winner today. Up 4.62% on increased hopes for US steel rebounding.
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ricepig

Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2018, 04:11:09 pm »

Then NUE would be your winner today. Up 4.62% on increased hopes for US steel rebounding.

I don't need to know what happened today, I need to know what's going to happen tomorrow, today.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2018, 04:28:37 pm »

I don't need to know what happened today, I need to know what's going to happen tomorrow, today.

I tell you what, rice, we get that what will happen tomorrow, today part figured out,  then we'll have something ;D

Best I can tell after today's run is that something will sell off tomorrow.
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HawgWild

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2018, 04:37:37 pm »

Free Beer Tomorrow! (Sign in the old Barney's Illinois Bar in Hot Springs.)

Well Barney, I'm back today for my free beer!
Read the sign kid. Come back tomorrow.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2018, 06:06:38 pm »

Free Beer Tomorrow! (Sign in the old Barney's Illinois Bar in Hot Springs.)

Well Barney, I'm back today for my free beer!
Read the sign kid. Come back tomorrow.
Not sure if Barney's is the "successor" to this establishment but way back in the 60s there was a place in H.S. known as "Wendy's Tavern". It was located down on Central Avenue just south of the National Park Headquarters building. It happened to have the same slogan. Alas, before I was old enough to legally drink I moved away.... >:( ;)
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HawgWild

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2018, 08:26:41 pm »

Barney’s was a hole in the wall across from The Arlington, nearby The Pancake House. This was in the late 70s early 80s.
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NuttinItUp

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2018, 09:01:53 pm »

I don't need to know what happened today, I need to know what's going to happen tomorrow, today.

If you find out a way to accurately predict the future, please share with us.
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ricepig

Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2018, 09:12:27 am »

If you find out a way to accurately predict the future, please share with us.

Hell, I have hard enough time understanding what happened yesterday.....
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Predictions for 2018?
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2018, 12:44:52 pm »

Barney’s was a hole in the wall across from The Arlington, nearby The Pancake House. This was in the late 70s early 80s.
Obviously not the same place at all. Gee, I wonder which bar came up with the slogan first. Knowing some of the shyster lawyers out there we could have a much belated lawsuit for "slogan infringement". ;) :) :D ;D
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