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Author Topic: Is GE a bargain yet?  (Read 1466 times)

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WaltKowalski

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Is GE a bargain yet?
« on: November 14, 2017, 01:35:04 pm »

Im tempted
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HawgWild

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2017, 02:26:11 pm »

Heard a guy on Squawk on the Street this morning say he offered a bet to a room full of hedge fund managers: Take the year end price for GE and what it would be in 2 years;  he'd take the over and they'd take the under and he'd bet them any amount. He had no takers.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2017, 02:32:12 pm »

Personally I wouldn't come within 10 light years of the stock. Obviously the company has a TON or problems and issues to deal with. Trust me: for a company like GE, long considered one of the steadiest/most reliable, to halve their dividend yesterday speaks volumes. Nope, let things settle down; let the new CEO get a full handle on what he wants to do in order to address the massive list of issues facing the company. I can promise you there will be plenty of opportunity to buy down the road. This stock isn't really going anywhere on the upside for a while.
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ricepig

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2017, 04:48:54 pm »

Personally I wouldn't come within 10 light years of the stock. Obviously the company has a TON or problems and issues to deal with. Trust me: for a company like GE, long considered one of the steadiest/most reliable, to halve their dividend yesterday speaks volumes. Nope, let things settle down; let the new CEO get a full handle on what he wants to do in order to address the massive list of issues facing the company. I can promise you there will be plenty of opportunity to buy down the road. This stock isn't really going anywhere on the upside for a while.

Did you just say "trust me"????
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #4 on: November 14, 2017, 05:24:17 pm »

Did you just say "trust me"????
Trust me: there will be plenty of opportunity to buy GE.
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ricepig

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2017, 08:58:59 pm »

Trust me: there will be plenty of opportunity to buy GE.

Every day the market is open, and they haven't halted trading in GE.
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CampuspostmanHOG

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2017, 09:41:15 pm »

Personally I wouldn't come within 10 light years of the stock. Obviously the company has a TON or problems and issues to deal with. Trust me: for a company like GE, long considered one of the steadiest/most reliable, to halve their dividend yesterday speaks volumes. Nope, let things settle down; let the new CEO get a full handle on what he wants to do in order to address the massive list of issues facing the company. I can promise you there will be plenty of opportunity to buy down the road. This stock isn't really going anywhere on the upside for a while.

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This
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2017, 10:38:54 am »

Every day the market is open, and they haven't halted trading in GE.
And who the heck said they have (or will) ??? Come on Rice, you know exactly what I mean. Heck, you're a ton smarter than that.

Make it clearer so that ANYONE can understand: there's absolutely NO reason to buy GE at this point. Have patience and you'll very likely get it at an even better price. While it may not decline significantly from here, the future is opaque enough and the new CEO is still trying to get his hands around the many issues this company has been allowed to get itself into. The stock is very likely NOT going to rally significantly in the foreseeable future. One also has to realize that GE will very likely be a "tax loss" candidate between now and year end for anyone who hasn't yet jettisoned the position.
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Troll-ingmotor

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2017, 07:06:39 pm »

Heard a guy on Squawk on the Street this morning say he offered a bet to a room full of hedge fund managers: Take the year end price for GE and what it would be in 2 years;  he'd take the over and they'd take the under and he'd bet them any amount. He had no takers.

Meh, hedge funds could manipulate this stock all over the place... Sounds fake.


They are probably selling off huge parts of the business... there might not be a GE in 10 years. Stay away for a bit and see what the new CEO can do. Market at close to ATHs, be cautious here folks.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2017, 07:21:18 pm »

Meh, hedge funds could manipulate this stock all over the place... Sounds fake.


They are probably selling off huge parts of the business... there might not be a GE in 10 years. Stay away for a bit and see what the new CEO can do. Market at close to ATHs, be cautious here folks.
Oh you can bet the new CEO is definitely going to be streamlining the company even further. Heck, a lot of folks thought that GE Financial was the main reason the company tanked in 2007-08. While the financial crisis back then didn't help the company, there was a lot of speculation the company had already strayed far away from its core competencies over the past ten years or more. It just took the market crisis back then to expose the problems.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #10 on: November 17, 2017, 08:48:09 am »

Interesting follow-up to this whole question. Read an analysis this morning concerning the potential break up value of the company (not that it will be). According to this report the stock may be worth only $10.00-$11.00 a share. Their cash flow problems are going to severely limit some of the options they have for future moves to make the company more competitive and relevant going forward. Flannery, the new CEO, is most definitely going to have his work cut out for himself.

There is even speculation the company could receive an even further humiliating blow: possible delisting out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For a company that's been in this index for over 110 years that would really be a heavy gut punch. My, how the mighty have fall :o
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HotlantaHog

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2017, 11:47:17 am »

What's the John Templeton rule that you should buy at the point of maximum pessimism?

Maybe we aren't there yet, but seem to be getting closer .... (I don't own it, no positions).

I find it intriguing too.
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HawgWild

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2017, 05:06:19 pm »

GE closed @ $17.82 today, not much different from where it was a month ago.
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Johnny Bobo

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2017, 01:13:07 pm »

Personally I wouldn't come within 10 light years of the stock. Obviously the company has a TON or problems and issues to deal with. Trust me: for a company like GE, long considered one of the steadiest/most reliable, to halve their dividend yesterday speaks volumes. Nope, let things settle down; let the new CEO get a full handle on what he wants to do in order to address the massive list of issues facing the company. I can promise you there will be plenty of opportunity to buy down the road. This stock isn't really going anywhere on the upside for a while.


buy low
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2017, 11:18:47 am »

I think GE is range bound until the next quarter, between $17 and $18. Thereís just not much of a catalyst for upside right now. Guidance of $1 EPS for 2018 and the dividend was slashed. Without a couple good quarters strung together, Iíd treat it as a spec and a trade. Might nibble a bit below $17 and then sell around $18 until thereís a reason to go long. The perceived bottom right now could become a ceiling if thereís more bad news/a bad quarter.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2017, 12:48:35 pm »

I think GE is range bound until the next quarter, between $17 and $18. Thereís just not much of a catalyst for upside right now. Guidance of $1 EPS for 2018 and the dividend was slashed. Without a couple good quarters strung together, Iíd treat it as a spec and a trade. Might nibble a bit below $17 and then sell around $18 until thereís a reason to go long. The perceived bottom right now could become a ceiling if thereís more bad news/a bad quarter.
I tend to agree. Yep, it's going to take a MINIMUM of several quarters to get restructuring efforts both completed and to begin bearing any fruit when it comes to results. As I said earlier, PLENTY of time to begin nibbling on the stock. It's NOT going to run away from anyone.
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ricepig

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2017, 01:39:07 pm »

I think GE is range bound until the next quarter, between $17 and $18. Thereís just not much of a catalyst for upside right now. Guidance of $1 EPS for 2018 and the dividend was slashed. Without a couple good quarters strung together, Iíd treat it as a spec and a trade. Might nibble a bit below $17 and then sell around $18 until thereís a reason to go long. The perceived bottom right now could become a ceiling if thereís more bad news/a bad quarter.

I don't trust any financial advice from a floating head, sorry, but I just can't.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2017, 07:25:36 pm »

I don't trust any financial advice from a floating head, sorry, but I just can't.

Understandable, rice. A smart man should never invest based on tips from a floating head.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #18 on: December 21, 2017, 10:28:22 pm »

Just found out something concerning the new Republican-backed tax bill that just passes that is NOT good in the least for GE. According to a December 20th report from Deutsche Bank analyst John Inch the company could be on the hook for at least $9 billion in taxes due to the proposed changes in corporate income tax rates. The company, which has paid a net NEGATIVE income tax rate since at least 2008.

GE was one of 18 Fortune 500 companies that paid no net federal income taxes between 2008 and 2015. In 2016, the company earned $10 billion but recorded a tax benefit of $400 million for a 12 month tax rate of -4.5%.

Near term, it appears that GE will owe a sizable tax bill from one-time mandatory deemed repatriation on GE's overseas reinvested profits (15.5% on liquid assets and 8% on non-liquid assets, payable progressively over eight years). Inch stated " At the end of the last year, GE's foreign earnings that indefinitely reinvested overseas amounted to $82 billion, of which $31.9 billion comprised cash and equivalents at the end of 3rd quarter 2017. Based on that blend, the company could therefore owe up to $9 billion in new taxes, or an average of $1.1 billion a year for the next eight years".

So unfortunately in this case, assuming Inch is correct, Santa's (should I say Trump's) corporate tax rate cute present could  actually turn out to be the dreaded "lump of coal" we've always heard about as kids. And boy, that's quite a few lumps of the black stuff!! :o >:( Not exactly the type holiday gift company GE's executives or shareholders need to the make the season brighter, especially in the midst of all their other challenges and issues.
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HotlantaHog

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #19 on: December 22, 2017, 12:04:05 pm »

GE has had some significant insider buying of late, fyi:
                                                                                                             
 1)  James S Tisch,Director,Buys 3,000,000 on 11/21/17 of GE                                         11/21
 2)  Francisco D'Souza,Director,Buys 55,000 on 11/20/17 of GE                                        11/20
 3)  John Leonard Flanner,C.O.B.,Buys 60,000 on 11/15/17 of GE                                      11/17
 4)  Steven M Mollenkopf,Director,Buys 5,500 on 11/16/17 of GE                                       11/16

(I don't own it.)
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HotlantaHog

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #20 on: December 22, 2017, 12:10:11 pm »

Just found out something concerning the new Republican-backed tax bill that just passes that is NOT good in the least for GE. According to a December 20th report from Deutsche Bank analyst John Inch the company could be on the hook for at least $9 billion in taxes due to the proposed changes in corporate income tax rates. The company, which has paid a net NEGATIVE income tax rate since at least 2008.

GE was one of 18 Fortune 500 companies that paid no net federal income taxes between 2008 and 2015. In 2016, the company earned $10 billion but recorded a tax benefit of $400 million for a 12 month tax rate of -4.5%.

Near term, it appears that GE will owe a sizable tax bill from one-time mandatory deemed repatriation on GE's overseas reinvested profits (15.5% on liquid assets and 8% on non-liquid assets, payable progressively over eight years). Inch stated " At the end of the last year, GE's foreign earnings that indefinitely reinvested overseas amounted to $82 billion, of which $31.9 billion comprised cash and equivalents at the end of 3rd quarter 2017. Based on that blend, the company could therefore owe up to $9 billion in new taxes, or an average of $1.1 billion a year for the next eight years".

So unfortunately in this case, assuming Inch is correct, Santa's (should I say Trump's) corporate tax rate cute present could  actually turn out to be the dreaded "lump of coal" we've always heard about as kids. And boy, that's quite a few lumps of the black stuff!! :o >:( Not exactly the type holiday gift company GE's executives or shareholders need to the make the season brighter, especially in the midst of all their other challenges and issues.
GE hasn't paid net taxes in recent years -- presumably because of tax loss carryforwards -- it hasn't earned money after losses taken on sales, etc. It will pay taxes in future years.... While it may owe taxes, GE did support the tax bill ....

There is a www.thestreet.com article on this and some of the various analysts have put out reports on it as well. It's well understood this is going to occur.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #21 on: December 22, 2017, 12:26:24 pm »

GE hasn't paid net taxes in recent years -- presumably because of tax loss carryforwards -- it hasn't earned money after losses taken on sales, etc. It will pay taxes in future years.... While it may owe taxes, GE did support the tax bill ....

There is a www.thestreet.com article on this and some of the various analysts have put out reports on it as well. It's well understood this is going to occur.
Okay, so you're saying that EVERYONE who is on this board and might also be considering the purchase has read and fully familiarized themselves with this likelihood. Look, I have no axe to grind one way or another when it comes to the company. In fact, at one time I was a very happy shareholder myself. However, as the old saying goes "Look before you leap" and try to understand as much about the wisdom (or not) of a particular investment prior to "pulling the trigger" and putting hard earned monies to work. So just in case such news might have some influence on whether or not someone buys GE I believe it's at least worth posting. Even if it doesn't, it never hurts to know anything that has some bearing on an investment. I would hope you'd agree with that statement.

As to whether or not anyone does or doesn't put monies in the stock I frankly could care less. It's obviously their monies and their decision. My purpose was merely to inform/educate.
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HotlantaHog

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #22 on: December 23, 2017, 03:27:01 pm »

Okay, so you're saying that EVERYONE who is on this board and might also be considering the purchase has read and fully familiarized themselves with this likelihood. Look, I have no axe to grind one way or another when it comes to the company. In fact, at one time I was a very happy shareholder myself. However, as the old saying goes "Look before you leap" and try to understand as much about the wisdom (or not) of a particular investment prior to "pulling the trigger" and putting hard earned monies to work. So just in case such news might have some influence on whether or not someone buys GE I believe it's at least worth posting. Even if it doesn't, it never hurts to know anything that has some bearing on an investment. I would hope you'd agree with that statement.

As to whether or not anyone does or doesn't put monies in the stock I frankly could care less. It's obviously their monies and their decision. My purpose was merely to inform/educate.
Sorry if I was unclear or came off badly. My point wasn't that everyone should know it. It was that the fact that GE is going to face increased taxes in the future is already in the price of the stock -- well understood by the market. So news on it shouldn't send the stock lower unless the details turn out to be worse than expected.

I don't have any position on GE and not really inclined to take one.... It's cheap and there is insider buying -- that usually is a good sign -- on the other hand, I have no clue what their coherent strategy is....  what they are trying to achieve and how they plan to get there.

Generally I don't like conglomerates ... they are usually badly run.... GE is slimming down, but so far that hasn't seemed to have accomplished a lot.

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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #23 on: December 23, 2017, 03:56:33 pm »

Sorry if I was unclear or came off badly. My point wasn't that everyone should know it. It was that the fact that GE is going to face increased taxes in the future is already in the price of the stock -- well understood by the market. So news on it shouldn't send the stock lower unless the details turn out to be worse than expected.

I don't have any position on GE and not really inclined to take one.... It's cheap and there is insider buying -- that usually is a good sign -- on the other hand, I have no clue what their coherent strategy is....  what they are trying to achieve and how they plan to get there.

Generally I don't like conglomerates ... they are usually badly run.... GE is slimming down, but so far that hasn't seemed to have accomplished a lot.
Well you've very accurately placed your finger on very likely the biggest problem facing the company: seeking a true long term identity and strategy of "what comes next". The company just spent a "lost" decade or more trying to build up its financial arm only to have it blow up, along with a ton of others, primarily as a result to the financial crises of 2007-2008 as well as the more strict financial regulations that resulted. They scrapped that and seem to be pursuing a major drive toward becoming an IOT (internet of things) company. Thus far this seems to be reaping mixed results. While I'll agree that GE's stock likely won't fall much further, if at all, I don't see the fuel for any particular major move on the upside. One further thing that also came back to "bite" the company: apparently under the long time CEO Jack Welch the company got REALLY REALLY bloated as far as "big dog" perks-limos, private jets, hefty expense accounts, etc. In other words, some of upper management fell into the trap that many do in forgetting that the best run companies are supposed to be run for the benefit of shareholders, not for a bunch of "fat cat" members up in the "corner offices" and corporate suites.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #24 on: December 23, 2017, 04:04:47 pm »

Sorry if I was unclear or came off badly. My point wasn't that everyone should know it. It was that the fact that GE is going to face increased taxes in the future is already in the price of the stock -- well understood by the market. So news on it shouldn't send the stock lower unless the details turn out to be worse than expected.

I don't have any position on GE and not really inclined to take one.... It's cheap and there is insider buying -- that usually is a good sign -- on the other hand, I have no clue what their coherent strategy is....  what they are trying to achieve and how they plan to get there.

Generally I don't like conglomerates ... they are usually badly run.... GE is slimming down, but so far that hasn't seemed to have accomplished a lot.



Along with the info Vantage posted, GE is currently considering exiting its stake in Baker Hughes in 2018. Sure, oil has been beaten up for most of 2017 but itís at least found some support as of the last quarter or so. I donít own GE but considering they got into BH at the top and now seem to want to exit it near a bottom seems to indicate they may be worried about cash flow for 2018. Just doesnít seem to be a solid strategy in place yet. Itís currently trading between a 17 and 18 multiple based on the $1 EPS guidance, which seems cheap but in my mind, Iím fearful that another bit of bad news drops the multiple to 15 or 16. Regardless, without a good quarter or two, itíll live between $17 and $18, with more downside than up.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2017, 05:00:33 pm by Darrell Royal's Floating Flaming Fulminating Spectral Head »
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HawgWild

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #25 on: December 23, 2017, 04:24:11 pm »

All good information here guys - DRFFFSH, V8 and HLH. Thanks.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #26 on: December 23, 2017, 04:58:26 pm »

All good information here guys - DRFFFSH, V8 and HLH. Thanks.
More than happy to do my part of "muddy the waters".  ;) ;D :P
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #27 on: December 23, 2017, 05:09:47 pm »

All good information here guys - DRFFFSH, V8 and HLH. Thanks.
Iíve kept an eye on GE for a while now. Sadly, itís been more bottom fishing than anything else. Not sure itís there yet. Hopefully, Flannery will get things figured out there eventually. No real catalyst yet to warrant buying, just more questions about their tax liability, overall strategy, cash flow, etc. Seems like buying here is based mainly on hope. Iíd rather see it find support above $18 consistently with a reason to be long before buying.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #28 on: December 27, 2017, 12:30:05 pm »

From a technical perspecitve, here's how GE is looking today (currently trading ~$17.44 as of typing).

Bollinger Bands: Upper band @$18.27 and lower band @$17.27 Really getting squeezed here which implies lower volatility. If you subscribe to the thought that 90% of price actions occur within these bands, these bands provide levels where a potential upside or further downside breakouts could occur.
Williams %R: -90.0 has been signaling oversold since mid October (no surprises)
Relative Strength Index: 31.85 appears capped by declining trends (no surprises)
Chaikin Money Flow: -.30 No surprises here, any remaining large fund money has been fleeing GE for months. Up days appear to be lighter volume days versus anything resembling large money funds flowing back into the stock.

I have not pulled the trigger on GE but still watch it for seeing where the bottom/support is and really a morbid curiosity study. From a technical perspective (assumes all known news is priced into the stock), there's low volatility but low upside. It's a few cents off it's 52 week low ($17.36) and if it breaches that, the next support level down is around $16.70. From there, further downside could lead to the high $15 levels. Otherwise, I would expect support around here at $17.36+ and resistance above $18.

For the record, I would probably nibble a bit below $17 and then again below $16 with short intentions. Otherwise, the technicals imply this thing is pretty well range bound between call it $17 and $18, for even dollar level purposes, or between 17 and 18 times 2018's earnings.  For this thing to really get moving upward, it really needs the large fund money to flow back in and that's probably going to take more than insider buying. Still really need a good quarter(s), some kind of strategic direction from Flannery, or other catalyst to trigger an inflection point in the money flow to get me to go long. 

Don't mean to keep stirring this thread around but for whatever reason GE has been one of my chosen stocks to test fundmental and technical analysis. Opko (OPK) is a biotech version of GE that I also follow for bottom fishing reasons. This thread is somewhat of a notebook to then see what we got right versus what we got wrong.



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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #29 on: December 29, 2017, 04:28:04 pm »

Not a huge surprise considering the very rough year GE had for 2017 (down approximately 45% in value for the year), however, in a survey of some 2,400 professional investors run by Yahoo Financial Services, the company was named the year's "most despised company" by a wide margin. Some 25.9% of respondents named the company as their #1 selection. This percent was overwhelming when compared to the other top contenders which were composed of Equifax (EFX) at 6.5%, Sears Holding (SHLD) 3.9%, Wells Fargo (WFC) 2.5%, Comcast(CMCSA) 2.5%, Uber 2.3%, Yahoo 2.00% and Under Armor (UAA) 1.4%. Many of those surveyed pointed to the fact that both that CEO Jeff Immelt and the entire GE board of directors had "failed miserably in their responsibility to govern the company wisely and responsibly". Another reason cited: the $21.3 million in compensation given to Immelt despite his firing (remind any one of a certain HC who was terminated recently with a huge pay day).

Perhaps with sentiment at an all time low one might consider being a contrarian. However, as a investor who wants to have proof that management has both a plan and an actual handle on the many issues facing the company as we begin the new year, I prefer to let the company "show me", even if it costs me a few $s waiting for the proof.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #30 on: January 17, 2018, 11:43:10 am »

In the event that one is not already aware, however, according to financial news reports the new CEO of GE is reconsidering his options on what's next for the company. Apparently plans are being considered to actually break up the company. The idea being that "the parts are worth more than the whole taken together". The overall issues of the entire company may make it extremely difficult to effectively deal with getting the company back on its feet and toward recovery in the foreseeable future.
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HawgWild

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #31 on: January 17, 2018, 12:50:52 pm »

And there's the $6 billion charge on its insurance portfolio.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #32 on: January 17, 2018, 03:07:33 pm »

And there's the $6 billion charge on its insurance portfolio.
Wouldn't be shocked if that's the case. Yep, a total mess as far as the finances. Kinda like opening a closet full of junk and not knowing exactly what (and how much) is going to pour out.
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SugarHillGaHog

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #33 on: January 17, 2018, 03:27:01 pm »

I see GE as a company that can't seem to fix itself.  They've spun off the majority of their financial unit (Synchorony) and entertainment (Universal?) and they returned nothing to the stockholders. I thought that the stockholders would get either a payout or stock in the new companies.  If they did it's totally slipped my mind.  Instead that bought Alstom (sp?).  That hasn't gone well.  If they spilt up again how will it effect the stockholders this time is my thought.

I'd get out but I bought in when I thought it was rock bottom in like 2009 for seven bucks.  I'm just riding it to see if it what happens.  I have a way to go before I lose money.
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #34 on: January 17, 2018, 05:44:24 pm »

I see GE as a company that can't seem to fix itself.  They've spun off the majority of their financial unit (Synchorony) and entertainment (Universal?) and they returned nothing to the stockholders. I thought that the stockholders would get either a payout or stock in the new companies.  If they did it's totally slipped my mind.  Instead that bought Alstom (sp?).  That hasn't gone well.  If they spilt up again how will it effect the stockholders this time is my thought.

I'd get out but I bought in when I thought it was rock bottom in like 2009 for seven bucks.  I'm just riding it to see if it what happens.  I have a way to go before I lose money.
Just a thought: with all the craziness have you ever thought about selling enough of the stock to take your original cost basis out of the company ??? While it's true the company may eventually get it's act together, at the same time we obviously don't know what's exactly going to happen. Following this strategy keeps you with "skin in the game", however, it removes any risk you have from your original investment. In a true sense you're now using the market's money, anything thing from here on out is pure profit. Not a bad way to hedge your bet(s). ;)
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SugarHillGaHog

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #35 on: January 17, 2018, 06:12:05 pm »

Just a thought: with all the craziness have you ever thought about selling enough of the stock to take your original cost basis out of the company ??? While it's true the company may eventually get it's act together, at the same time we obviously don't know what's exactly going to happen. Following this strategy keeps you with "skin in the game", however, it removes any risk you have from your original investment. In a true sense you're now using the market's money, anything thing from here on out is pure profit. Not a bad way to hedge your bet(s). ;)

I know you are speaking the truth.  Every time I think I should sell some I get sidetracked at work or whatever and just don't.  Maybe I don't want to deal with the tax headache?  It's only 150 shares so not like it's a ton cash.  I bought Wendy's the same year at 5.09 and still have it.  Another 150 shares.    I just like guessing when something is low.  About couple times a year I'll look at something that seems low and if it interest me I just buy a few shares.  I'll pick up something for the oddest reasons at times.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #36 on: January 17, 2018, 08:36:13 pm »

Wouldn't be shocked if that's the case. Yep, a total mess as far as the finances. Kinda like opening a closet full of junk and not knowing exactly what (and how much) is going to pour out.

If for some reason oil takes a tumble, that closet of junk could turn into an episode of Hoarders, so to speak. I morbidly wonder what GE would be trading at if oil hadnít gained some momentum. The Baker Hughes segment seems like the life support for the company. Along with the insurance portfolio issues, thereís also reports that their Power segment has ď2018 guidance riskĒ due to overstated turbine demand, lol. Flannery inherited an out of date bologna sandwich slathered in shart gravy. Real shame for such an iconic company.
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SugarHillGaHog

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #37 on: January 17, 2018, 09:44:35 pm »

If for some reason oil takes a tumble, that closet of junk could turn into an episode of Hoarders, so to speak. I morbidly wonder what GE would be trading at if oil hadnít gained some momentum. The Baker Hughes segment seems like the life support for the company. Along with the insurance portfolio issues, thereís also reports that their Power segment has ď2018 guidance riskĒ due to overstated turbine demand, lol. Flannery inherited an out of date bologna sandwich slathered in shart gravy. Real shame for such an iconic company.

I don't know much about the shape GE was really in but I feel they should have kept the finance and entertainment companies.  I think they could have rode it out.  You don't toss off your cash cows when they are down if at all possible to work through it.  I don't care that it wasn't "core" business.  Look at HP.  Meg goes "oh noes" and splits the company.  HPQ and HPE.  She rides off with HPE thinking it's the winner.  She chose badly.  Then she sells off part of HPE while HPQ just keeps moving along.  Now she is resigning for other interests.  I would not be surprised at all if HPQ in a few years buys back what's left of HPE.
C did that with the company I work for.  Tossed us off after rapeing assets as "bad bank".  We went public at 15 bucks and now it's over 100 and making our dough for ourselves.
They company isn't too big to fail unless the folks running them are failing at making good decisions.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #38 on: February 07, 2018, 07:18:33 pm »

I think GE is getting somewhat interesting here at these levels. While I suspect there is more downside than upside in the near term, I canít help but think of John Templetonís advice. ďBull markets are born on pessimism, grown on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.Ē

Iíd consider nibbling at a position here, maybe 25% of your target position so thereís room to lower your cost basis. Iíd really prefer it between $13 and $14 as I believe it can go lower because the fundamentals are terrible, the SEC investigation is ongoing, thereís no strategy yet, the yield isnít safe, bond yields are rising, it could get kicked out of the Dow(which would probably be a plus), cash flow is questionable, volatility is a market pain point, etc., etc.

All that equates to something resembling maximum pessimism. As I type that though, I keep lowering my buy price mentally. $13 would be ideal. Itís not for the impatient and if you dare to get in here, donít buy all at once. I think Iíll hold off as my portfolio is full and I think it can go lower or worst case, I could pay a premium for more ďknownsĒ later.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #39 on: March 27, 2018, 11:25:19 am »

For those interested, there is a huge buyer of GE stock out there today (Buffett, Ackman, Loeb, Peltz, who knows?). I finally nibbled yesterday with a cost basis of $12.95 per share with the thought that if it dropped further (I thought it could bottom around $12 or the high $11 range), I would finish out my desired, long, speculative, bottom fishing position.  It is still expensive compared to its peers and still has some major hurdles to work through but this large buying may have created a short term bottom around the $13 range. Now, along with the large buying today, there were heavy May puts purchased yesterday. So, if the support above $13 continues via a takeover bid, breakup news, strategic announcement, etc., there could be some shorts needing to cover their large bets down the road in May, which then presents more upside potential.  Just thought I'd pass it along as it was an interesting turn of events.

FWIW, I am not pounding the table "BUY GE!!!". I think it could go to $11 if this isn't a bottom.  I do think though it's at a point where one could nibble speculatively with long patience or gamble with it as a trade. I bought it thinking I would hold it for a while to see what happens but my thoughts have already shifted a bit based on today's action that this will likely be a trade.  Again, just wanted to pass it along.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2018, 11:45:38 am by Boardon Hamsay »
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Bobby Bobo

Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #40 on: April 08, 2018, 06:48:43 pm »

given it's history, it's worth buying

it's not K-Mart
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #41 on: April 11, 2018, 01:45:15 pm »

Saw an analysis from an industry expert who's calculated that even if GE were to try to salvage whatever they can from the liquidation of GE Capital, the amount would be virtually nil. Unfortunately at this point it's truly hard to know exactly how to value this company either from an asset standpoint or even potential earnings. Pretty much a "shot in the dark".
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Vantage 8 dude

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #42 on: April 25, 2018, 03:13:57 pm »

A quick update for those who are holding or considering buying GE that will have some ramifications, at least over the short run. While not totally a surprise given all the unsettled issues at the company, it was announced earlier today that Moody's rating agency has cut the financial outlook to "Negative" on both GE and GE Capital (from Stable). The agency cited $1.5 billion of incremental reserves at GE Capital in 1Q18 related to the ongoing DOJ investigation into practices at the exited WMC (US mortgage business). The charge was reflected in GE Capital's discontinued ops. Some industry experts expressed surprise at the downgrade considering that only last week the rating agency affirmed the outlook for the subsidiary ahead if earnings, and could be an indication that Moody's is ready to take GE's rating down (the bond market seems to be already prices in about one notch-downgrade to A3 given GE's credit metrics).

The outlook revision also raises the risk of a dividend cut. The Moody's outlook downgrade likely raises the risk of a lower dividend payout, as it's thought by some that GE's primary focus is to defend its investment grade credit rating, and a dividend cut is a more likely avenue to strengthen the balance sheet through 2020 vs. an outright equity (dilution) raise.

Further, the Moody's outlook downgrade also raises the possibility that GE Capital might need $2-3 billion in capital infusion from the parent. This possibility would be determined by the final capital needed to further satisfy future tangible equity/tangible asset ratios required to maintain investment grade ratings for the company's debt.
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Boardon Hamsay

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Re: Is GE a bargain yet?
« Reply #43 on: May 14, 2018, 06:44:32 pm »

GE should get interesting at the end of this week. Itís had a nice run albeit on lighter volumes the past 45ish days. There is quite a bit of sub $14 put contracts out there for the 5/18 expiration. The stock could get hammered back to the $13 neighborhood to retest the bottom or if buyers continue stepping up, thereís a nice short squeeze in the making. Gonna be interesting to see who wins: bulls or bears.
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