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Author Topic: Ark-Bama week one depth chart comparison  (Read 2579 times)

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Cinco de Hogo

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Re: Ark-Bama week one depth chart comparison
« Reply #50 on: August 30, 2017, 07:42:35 am »

I'm not pulling the data in any direction. Simply presenting the data. If you think that 247 sports is pulling the data in Arkansas's favor, take that up with them. Look at just the recruiting and it's pretty easy to see why Arkansas is one of the top NFL talent producing colleges in the SEC, but why we've also struggled to have players drafted in the top 3 rounds.

As for the when the 2 teams are on the field

2014: Final score, 14-13 for Bama. Can totally see that we were were not close on the field of play...
2015: 47 minutes into the game, the score was 10-7. They score 17 points over 55 total yards due to a turnover on downs, an interception, and a big punt return. We end up losing by 13 points. We probably still lose that game, but if not for unforced errors, the final score would have been closer, and a 13 point loss is still pretty close.
2016: 19 point loss, 49-30. Our defense couldn't stop them, but they had no answer for our offense either. However, all signs point to this game being even closer. 2 of Austin's 3 int's led to 14 points for the tide. They only won by 19.

Our qb, OL, TE, and RB group should be better based on returning experience. Their QB, and RB group should also be better. However, their WR, TE, and OL groups took some hits this year. Our offense should thus improve from last year, an offense that put up 30 points, and their offense should be about the same depending on how much important you give to the OL.

On the flip side, their DL/OLB group and CB group took huge hits. Our DE group took a bit hit, but that was it on defense for us. Further, given that our best players were true freshmen, we should expect to have a significant improvement in year 2. Their ILB group and Safeties are still top notch though.

Or, looking at it from a matchup standpoint, Our OL should face a lot less pressure this year from last. Bama's struggled sacking the qb under Saban with the last 2 seasons being huge anomalies with all the success coming from 2 players no longer there. Bama has done nothing to earn a benefit of the doubt that they will reload there considering the lack of success beforehand. Allen is throwing to new receivers this year and Bama has new cornerbacks. The corner's these players couldn't beat out before gave up 400 yards to Allen. Unlikely these will do any better, and likely worse. Our RB's have a much improved OL going up against a brand new DL for Bama. Bama has always been top 10 at stopping the run, so I'm not expecting us to go for 200 or something, but should be a noticeable improvement over last year. Our TE's will be improved over last season as well. However, Bama's ILB's and Safeties are improved and that should cancel out. Hurts should be a better qb this year than he was last year. His OL, however, you can see above that they will not be as good as they were before. He'll be throwing to some new guys as well. Against our defense, our DL is bigger and based on returning experience, should be better than they were last year. We couldn't do much to stop them on offense last year, but the LoS should be tipping closer, if not in our favor this year. Our LB'ers are young and new for the most part save for our ILB's. Based on who we return in the front 7, we should be much better at stopping the run. How our OLB's will do getting pressure on the qb is up in the air, however, our DL has shown a good knack for rushing the passer in limited reps. Much more so then Bama's DL players have in their limited reps. Our CB's and safeties should be a strength in terms of returning experience and talent. Hurts should be a better passer, but with the drop in receiver experience and possibly talent combined with our increased experience and talent, that should at least cancel out any improvements he makes, and probably will be harder on him passing. Their RB's will get yards. As good as they are, that's just going to happen. However, hard to win another shoot out on a running game alone, especially with their substantial losses on the OL.

I don't know how to highlight on an iPhone but the part about the games of 2014-2016 is scary.  We lost by increasing margins, I hope we can turn that trend around this year.  Unless we look bad the first five games I know I will go into the Bama week thinking we have a chance.


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Re: Ark-Bama week one depth chart comparison
« Reply #51 on: August 30, 2017, 08:30:31 am »

How many starters along Alabama's front 7 did they lose to the NFL Draft in 2017?

I think they lost 5 total.  I know there were 4 in the first round.  ...but they also lost 4 in the 2016 draft.

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Re: Ark-Bama week one depth chart comparison
« Reply #52 on: August 30, 2017, 08:44:13 am »

I think they lost 5 total.  I know there were 4 in the first round.  ...but they also lost 4 in the 2016 draft.

Alabama had 10 players drafted, 7 of them from the defense and 5 of those 7 were in the first two rounds. Out of the 10, only one was drafted below the 3rd round, in the 4th.

5 of their starting front 7 were drafted.


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Re: Ark-Bama week one depth chart comparison
« Reply #53 on: August 30, 2017, 02:31:00 pm »

I agree with most of this. We are improving but at this point we aren't anywhere close to having the overall talent that Alabama possesses. I think this will be one of the more challenging years that Saban has had in coaching-up his defense. He lost 7 starters off his defense to the NFL Draft this year. 5 of those went in the first two rounds. Even if you are talking about those in the two deep rotation stepping up, that's a lot of highly rated/developed/experienced talent to have to replace. And let's keep in mind that since Saban has arrived it hasn't been a record setting offenses that have won championships for him, it has been excellent defenses.

So is Alabama vulnerable this season? They could certainly be less dominating than they have been the last 3-4 years and that might be enough of an opportunity for the right team with the right mental attitude that plays a turnover-free game.

Your post is excellent, and it brings up some important aspects that needs to be considered about this year's Alabama team.

We may be finding out this week just how vulnerable is Alabama.  Alabama will not have the overwhelming talent advantage against Florida State that Alabama is used to having against SEC teams.  Here is how I see who has the edge.

QB  Florida State   Francois is overall a better QB than Hurts.
RB  Alabama
WR  Slight edge to Alabama  FSU has good talent at WR though.
OL  Alabama
TE  Florida State   Izzo and Saunders are good TEs.
DL  Slight edge to Alabama   Not as big of advantage as one would think for Alabama.  FSU's DL is better than many people realize.
LB  Florida State   2 of FSU's starting LBs are 5 Star.  Only 1 of Alabama's starting LBs is 5 Star.
Secondary  Florida State   Perhaps the best Secondary Saban has ever faced at the collegiate level.  FSU's Secondary has 2 All-Americans, and 3 of the 4 FSU Secondary starters are 5 Star.  It is an elite NFL type of a Secondary.


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Re: Ark-Bama week one depth chart comparison
« Reply #54 on: August 30, 2017, 06:01:14 pm »

Benny, I think you may have missed my point. I'm not saying that based on your evaluation we should beat Alabama, I'm saying that IF our talent level has increased by that much we should expect to see a MUCH better product on the field every Saturday.

We have a VERY favorable schedule, better talent, ?less distractions? and more experience in some key areas so we ought to win more games.


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Re: Ark-Bama week one depth chart comparison
« Reply #55 on: September 11, 2017, 12:01:49 pm »

With Bama's depth chart coming out today, here's an in depth comparison with how we compare to them. Why do this? Bama is the gold standard of football teams at the moment and we are somewhat similar in style, especially with the defensive switch. What is being compared? We have experience, size, recruiting (Bama's stars are based on 247, Ark players have a super score system (highest star that any of the major sites gave.) The numeric value is strictly from 247 for both), and statistical production.

By themselves, none of them really have much meaning. Together, they can come together and tell a picture. You could have a 4 year starter that wasn't rated very highly and didn't produce a whole lot, but the team just didn't have anybody else. A highly rated guy may not have produced a whole lot, but hasn't had the opportunity with a lack of experience. Etc...

EDIT: have to break this into two parts.

QB: Jalen Hurts (6'2 218 So 4* .923), Tua Tagovailoa (6'1 219 Fr 5* .984)
Allen (6'1 215 Rs Sr 4* .891), Kelley (6'7 268 RsFr 4* .849) OR Storey (6'2 212RsSo 4* .909)

Hurts is 240/382 (62.8%), 2780 yards (7.3ypa) 23 td, 9 int, 191 carries, 954 yards (5.0 avg) 13 td. Their backup is a true freshmen.

Allen is 245/401 (61.1%), 3430 yards (8.6 ypa), 25 td, 15 int, 65 carries, -126 yards, 2 td. Storey is 1/4 for 3 yards, Kelley has no stats.

size: About the same. Kelley's a big boy though.

Adv: Push. Hurts should improve a good bit as he definitely had training wheels on as a true freshmen. His passing was suspect, but the thought is that he will be better. Austin should drop the sacks and int's a good bit in year two, and is by far the superior passer. I'd take Allen over Hurts any day, but I give it a push due to different styles. Neither team has much experience in their backups, but Arkansas has 3 full years of their 2 backups at least being on campus.

RB: Scarbororugh (6'2 235 Jr 5* .992) OR D. Harris (5'11 221 Jr 5* .986), Jacobs (5'10 212 So 3* .873), N. Harris (6'2 227 Fr 5* .998)
Whaley (5'11 216 So 4* .952) OR Williams (6'1 229 Sr 4* .928) , Hayden (5'10 191 Fr 4* .89) OR Williams (5'11 218 Fr 3* .852)

Scarborough and Harris combined for 1849 yards on 271 carries (6.8 ypc) and 13 td's. Not much in the receiving game with 18 rec, 121 yards, and 2 td's combined. Jacobs, their 3rd stringer, had another 567 yards at 6.7 per pop with 4 td's and is the big receiving threat out of the backfield with 14 receptions and 156 yards by himself. The fourth back is a true freshmen who's rated even higher than their other backs.

Whaley had 602 yards at 5.5 ypc, 3 td's, and 6 catches for 139 yards. Williams last year at SC had 239 yards at 4.3 ypc and 3 td's to go along with 9 rec for 72 yards. Chase and Maleek are true freshmen.

size: Bama's backs are big this year. We have pretty normal size.

Adv: Bama and it isn't close. We should be fine in the run game for sure, but I doubt there's a backfield in the country that matches Bama's right now, and there's probably a couple NFL teams that would glady trade right now.

TE: Henteges (6'5 249 Jr 4* .933), Smith Jr (6'4 246 So 3* .867)
Cantrell (6'3 264 RsSo 3* .865) AND O'Grady (6'4 253 RsSo 4* .917), Patton (6'5 250 Jr 4* .905) AND Kraus (6'5 248 RsJr 3* .842) AND Gragg (6'4 254 RsSo 4* .916)

Henteges has 3 rec for 10 yards and that's it. Backup doesn't have any stats.

Cantrell and O'Grady combine for 16 rec, 183 yards, and 3 td's. Not a whole lot to hang the hat on, by a massive amount in comparison.

size: We're bigger. 

Adv: Arkansas. We outmatch Bama in recruiting pedigree here, and production, not to mention size and experience. Further, we have Patton to add to this mix as well.

H-back/FB: Smith Jr (6'4 246 So see above), Forristall (6'5 238 So 3* .882)
Jackson (6' 253 Jr 3* .84), Johnson (6'2/256 So 3* .838)

Smith Jr has no stats, Forristall has 5 rec for 73 yards.

Jackson and Johnson combine for 3 receptions for 26 yards.

size: Bama is taller, we are bigger, but comparing fb's to h-backs.

Adv: Push. A bit of an unfair comparison here, as Bama doesn't list a FB and instead has a TE and an H-Back while we list 2 TE spots and a FB spot. Even adding in the Forristall to the TE section, we still have the advantage there and I think it is advantageous to have dedicated fb's as well. I give it a push though just because Forristall's receiving stats are much better than our fb's.

WRZ: Ridley (6'1 190 Jr 5* .993), Kieff (6'4 204 RsJr 4* .912) OR Ruggs (6' 175 Fr 4* .964)
Cornelius (5'11 212 Sr 3* .844) OR Pettway (6'2 220 RsSo 4* .862), Hammonds (5'10 195 So 4* .907) OR Nance (6'1 182 Jr 3* .826)

Ridley has 72 rec, 769 yards 10.7 ypc, and 7 td's, which was a dip from his freshmen season. Also, 5 carries for 21 yards. Backup Kieff has 4 for 31 yards. Ruggs is a true freshmen.

Cornelius has 13 carries, 53 yards, and a td, along with 32 rec, 515 yards 16.1 ypc, and 4 td's. Hammonds has 15 carries, 88 yards and a td (no receptions) and Pettway has 1 for 10 and a td. Nance is a JUCO.

size: Bama has a bit more height, we have more weight.

Adv: Bama. Cornelius is a bit more explosive and if he can have a healthy back this season, he could challenge for best receiver in the country (check out the first part of last season where he was ripping it up). However, Ridley is a superior overall receiver for sure. While the advantage I give to Bama here, it is only a slight one. I think our depth is pretty close to theirs and we have more total yards of production behind the first guy.

WRX: Foster (6'2 194 RsSr, 5* .989), D. Smith (6'1 165 Fr 4* .972)
Stewart (5'11 162 RsSo 3* .854) OR Jones (6'1 185 RsFr 4* .867), Warren (5'10 181 Fr 4* .848) OR Jackson (6'2 214 Fr 3* .872)

Foster has 5 catches, 55 yards, 1 rush for -5. Backup is a true freshmen.

Stewart has 2 carries for 9 yards, and 2 receptions for 34 yards. Jones redshirted, Warren and Jackson are true freshmen.

size: Stewart and smith are comparable. Jones is smaller than Foster. Jackson is big for a freshmen. Push in terms of size here.

Adv: Ark. Foster has failed to live up to his potential while Stewart nearly matched him as a rsfr in total yards last year. Bama definitely has the recruiting edge, but with Foster being in his 5th year, the youth and potential gives us the edge.

WRH: Sims (6'5 214 Sr 4* .961) OR Jeudy (6'1 187 Fr 5* .988), Marks (5'8 174 Jr ?)
n/a but throwing in Martin as Bielema has said he will play Martin (6'4 219 So 4* .905)

Sims has 14 receptions 152 yards. Marks has no stats and Jeudy is a true freshmen.

Martin is just coming in as a JUCO.

Adv: Bama. Similar to the h-back, not a great comparison as we only listed 2 wr spots and not a third. However, it should be apparent that Bama, like us, lost a lot of their receiving yards. However, Jeudy is projected to be their next big thing in the long line of Julio, Amari, Ridley, and presumably Jeudy will be next.

LT: J. Williams (6'5 301 So 5* .987), Leatherwood (6'6 322 Fr 5* .998)
Jackson (6'5 298 RsSo 3* .864), Ramirez (6'5 308 3* .852)

Williams started all last season at RT and made freshmen all american by USA today and was 2nd team all sec. Leatherwood was one of the top prospects coming out of HS.

Jackson started 3 games at RT and had 200+ total snaps.

size: Comparable

Adv: Bama. Williams has a full year starting and was already 2nd team all sec. Leatherwood would be starting right now for most teams I'd bet. I like the experience advantage that we have, and I think Ramirez could easily be starting for us, but definitely a talent disparity. 

LG: Pierschbacher (6'4 303 RsJr 4* .965 ), Casher (6'1 291 RsJr 4* .896) OR D. Warmack (6'2 308 Jr 4* .908)
Froholdt (6'5 311 Jr 4* .934), Raulerson (6'4 313 Sr 4* .943)

30 career starts for Piers. freshmen all american and 2nd team all sec last year. Highly rated depth behind him.

Froholdt struggled mentally, but did well when he got his hands on you. Now is some pre-season all sec lists and the outland watch list. Played on the DL as a freshmen and started all 13 at LG last year. Raulerson started many games for us last year before being replaced by Gibson.

size: We have a height and size advantage.

Adv: Ark. Not a huge advantage here, but I think Froholdt's rising faster than Piersbacher given how little experience he has in football and is already comparable. Raulerson gives us better depth than Bama has at the position.

C: Bozeman (6'5 314 RsSr 3* .0871), Kennedy (6'5 305 RsSo 4* .897)
Ragnow (6'5 317 Sr 4* .891), Rogers (6'1 309 Jr 4* .886)

Bozeman started all last year at center. On the remington watch list, but his bio didn't list a whole lot of accomplishments. Redshirted as a freshmen and was a reserve the next 2 years. Just going into his 2nd year starting. Kennedy is following the same path.

Ragnow is on his 3rd year starting, listed as the best center per pff, also pff all american first team, phill steele all american 4th team. Etc... Rogers is on par with the rating of Bama's players and was a threat to start in fall camp last year at RG before they settled on raulerson.

size: Rogers is shorter, but otherwise comparable.

Adv: Arkansas, and big time.

RG: Cotton (6'4 324 Jr 4* .973), Hassenauer (6'2 295 Sr 4* .926), Brown (6'4 350 RsFr 4* .924)
Gibson (6'4 333 Jr NR), Clary (6'4 286 Fr NR .783)

Cotton started 5 games last year before being replaced. Hassenauer's been a backup center for the tide, Brown redshirted.

Gibson is a former walkon, started about half the season last year replacing Raulerson. Clary is a true freshmen that's really impressed.

size: Comparable

Adv: Bama. Both teams have similar starting experience, but Bama's depth has a lot more experience here. In truth, if Gibson had to come out, Raulerson and Rogers would both be more likely to come in before Clary, but Bama definitely has more depth, experience, and the recruiting rankings edge.

RT: M. Womack (6'7 324 RsSo 3* .861) OR Wills (6'5 314 Fr 4* .983), Lashley (6'7 310 RsFr 4* .92)
Wallace (6'6 337 RsJr 4* .958), Merrick (6'4 322 RsSo 4* .906)

First year starting for Womack and he's in a battle with true freshmen Wills. Lashley, backup redshirted.

Wallace is into his second season starting, starting the last 10 games of the season last year. Merrick is a talented guy who's waiting in the wings.

size: Bama's definitely got the size advantage here.

Adv: Ark. Nobody on Bama's depth chart has actually started a game at RT. They have some big boys, but Wallace and Merrick are pretty big themselves. Plus, Bama doesn't even have very much of a recruiting advantage here.

OL Overall: We might actually have a better OL than Bama this year. They have the edge at LT and RG, but I like our depth chart at LG, C, and RT better. Recruiting wise, we aren't too far behind Bama either. They have a couple extra blue chippers, but overall, we've done pretty well.

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