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Author Topic: AP Story - Which new college football coaches are most likely to succeed?  (Read 4678 times)

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Vantage 8 dude

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Well let's at least let CCM get to a point where a number of top notch programs, such as Clemson, 'Bama or others, come beating down the doors to sign him before we have him leaving for greener pastures. Geez.....some on here are "dogging" him before he's even coached a down of live ball on the Hill. Others have him leaving with a boat load of cash before he's even coached a down of live ball on the Hill.
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razorbackfaninar

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This is the national prception of our program. They are telling us fans we should accept it

Look at the the last 20 years.  The national perception is right where it should be. In the last 20 years we have had more seasons of five wins or less (6) than we have double digit wins (2).    Perhaps Morris can change it, but the last 20 years has not been good for us in football. In fact we haven't been a good football program since joining the SEC. We haven't had sustainable success. Even our 10 and 11 win seasons under Petrino only resulted in a Sugar Bowl loss and a cotton bowl win.  We have perhaps 2 significant post season wins in the last 20 years, Cotton Bowl in 99 and Cotton Bowl in 2011.  We are fans so we think that the perception outside the state is skewed, but look at our record and ask yourself what you would think about a team with a similar record.

I personally don't think that we have had a really good coach outside of Petrino since joining the SEC.  I think Arkansas can be great, but unless we get someone who can coach and recruit at a high level it is going to be very hard.  The resources are there, the fan base is there, the facilities are there, it's just waiting for the right coach to put it all together. I hope Morris can be that guy.  He is in the right place to be able to build a program by taking advantage of his ties to the State of Texas.  The only better situation he could be in is to actually be coaching in the state of Texas.     
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Hogs-n-Roses

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Either way it would mean that we'd risen out of the crapper and became a force to recon with,again(Forrest Gump).I'll take either scenario.
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GuvHog

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Lol. Link??


You're confusing the extension with the initial contract.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/coach-bobby-petrino-agrees-to-new-seven-year-contract-at-arkansas-121110&ved=2ahUKEwjalMeUnKHaAhXK1IMKHfkIDxsQFjAAegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw2NlrmyR1I7iWu5o3KTvV6Z


I've included a screenshot of the original buyout

No, I'm not confusing it with the extension. The extension included an 18 Million dollar buyout. Petrino was initially offered the buyout you posted on arrival at Arkansas but requested that the buyout be changed to 11 Million dollars.
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rhames


No, I'm not confusing it with the extension. The extension included an 18 Million dollar buyout. Petrino was initially offered the buyout you posted on arrival at Arkansas but requested that the buyout be changed to 11 Million dollars.


No. No he didn't. The screen shot is from the first contract. 

I know you dont but i will be nice and ask, where is your proof to this claim?


You're confused man.
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jvanhorn


Doubt very seriously OU will be looking for a new head coach anytime soon.
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Well that was certainly depressing.  9th best hire with the comment we should be happy with the results that got Kevin sumlin fired.

That's a big part of what used to make it fun to be a Razorback.

EVERYBODY against you. NOBODY respecting you. EVERYBODY thinking we should just be happy to be mediocre because we're simply little ol' Arkansas. NOBODY admitting they were wrong about us. EVERYBODY continuously discounting us. NOBODY in Arkansas surprised when we went decades punching above our weight and having success across the board in almost all important sports.

All it took to erode all of that was a big fat lazy dumb coach that couldn't prepare a team or think his way out of a paper bag.


Hopefully an innovative and energetic Chad Morris and a motivated Athletic Director will at least get us back to where we can be competitive week in and week out.
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depressed_fan

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Well that was certainly depressing.  9th best hire with the comment we should be happy with the results that got Kevin sumlin fired.

I think all the hires in the top 10 are pretty close though.  I would think Nebraska's hire would be number 1 just based on bringing back a legendary QB who's already had great success as an HC.

He makes another great point about it being difficult to pinpoint what success is here. I think when you look at the landscape of the division, 7-5 should be considered a good year. Anything better should buy some goodwill for a 5-7 type year. In my opinion we could have a team good enough to go 8-4 but some years still go 5-7. That's just the nature of the division.  Most of our fans really have no idea just how much additional recruiting potential the conference has over us.

If CCM has Petrino like success and a bigger program calls, I think the only place he would consider is NFL. I really doubt he will get to double digit wins in one season though and won't ever have that much appeal for a top 10 program to offer him. I do think he will mix in some 8-4 seasons and win a bowl, and be competitive against bigger schools which would probably keep him around a while and really should be all we care about. We are about like Kentucky, not Georgia.
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Pork Twain


By Gawd you can take whatever is written in the Winchester Star, to the bank.  Some of brightest minds in all the lands come from this jewel in the middle of BFE Virginia, with a population of 26k
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Pork Twain


This is the national prception of our program. They are telling us fans we should accept it
Obviously your Goolge maps are broken.
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hogcards

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Well that was certainly depressing.  9th best hire with the comment we should be happy with the results that got Kevin sumlin fired.

He was our 3rd choice, that we know of.  He'll be better than what we just fired, that's a given but I think that ranking is pretty accurate.
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popcornhog


This staff is going to surprise people.  I don’t know if we’ll ever win a title, although I think it’s possible, but we are going to get back to Petrino level competitiveness.  From there, time and circumstance will tell the tale.

What does that look like in your opinion over, say six years? Something like:

2018: 4-8
2019: 6-6
2020: 8-4
2021: 10-2
2022: 9-3
2023: 10-2
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popcornhog


http://www.winchesterstar.com/associated_press/national_sports/which-new-fbs-head-coaches-are-most-likely-to-succeed/article_91ab3071-48a6-51a0-8755-1254858e724b.html

It’s a fair prediction. If he can get us to where we are winning 8 or 9 for a few years in a row he’ll either get a better offer and leave; he’ll try to keep building and we’ll hope to get better; or the fans will call for him to be fired in favor of a Nick Saban type.
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ALLVOL


FSU, Oregon, TAMU and Arizona will all be disappointed with their hires in time.
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Pork Twain


He was our 3rd choice, that we know of.  He'll be better than what we just fired, that's a given but I think that ranking is pretty accurate.
Something can be said for consistency
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jgphillips3

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What does that look like in your opinion over, say six years? Something like:

2018: 4-8
2019: 6-6
2020: 8-4
2021: 10-2
2022: 9-3
2023: 10-2

For one, even in this first year, I don’t think Morris will ever have a 4-8 year. 5-7 is possible I guess this first year.  I think he will have us where 7-5 is a “down” year and 8 wins is kind of an expected floor.  As long as the conference remains this competitive, 8-4 and 9-3 could be the norms.  10-2 would be good years.  In a year where he has the right kind of talent and the stars align, 11-1 with a trip to Atlanta and/or a playoff shot are there.  So, to use your model, it’s not too far off but I would change 4-8 to 6-6 (or 7-5) and the 6-6 to 7-5 (or 8-4).  After that, probably not too far off the mark.  I think for the immediate future (next 3 years or so) 9 wins is pretty much the plateau but if he does get the talent to flow in as he installs his system, then we can compete and double digit wins become possible.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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For one, even in this first year, I don’t think Morris will ever have a 4-8 year. 5-7 is possible I guess this first year.  I think he will have us where 7-5 is a “down” year and 8 wins is kind of an expected floor.  As long as the conference remains this competitive, 8-4 and 9-3 could be the norms.  10-2 would be good years.  In a year where he has the right kind of talent and the stars align, 11-1 with a trip to Atlanta and/or a playoff shot are there.  So, to use your model, it’s not too far off but I would change 4-8 to 6-6 (or 7-5) and the 6-6 to 7-5 (or 8-4).  After that, probably not too far off the mark.  I think for the immediate future (next 3 years or so) 9 wins is pretty much the plateau but if he does get the talent to flow in as he installs his system, then we can compete and double digit wins become possible.

Norms? What have you seen to make you think that could become the norm? We've averaged 6.75 wins per regular season since the adoption of the 12-game season.

Yes, I think Morris will do awesome here. But to declare 9 win seasons as becoming the "norm" with no evidence of anything yet?

This is why our fanbase goes into meltdown mode every. single. year.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2018, 09:36:00 am by RyanMallettsEgo »
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steveaustin69

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For one, even in this first year, I don’t think Morris will ever have a 4-8 year. 5-7 is possible I guess this first year.  I think he will have us where 7-5 is a “down” year and 8 wins is kind of an expected floor.  As long as the conference remains this competitive, 8-4 and 9-3 could be the norms.  10-2 would be good years.  In a year where he has the right kind of talent and the stars align, 11-1 with a trip to Atlanta and/or a playoff shot are there.  So, to use your model, it’s not too far off but I would change 4-8 to 6-6 (or 7-5) and the 6-6 to 7-5 (or 8-4).  After that, probably not too far off the mark.  I think for the immediate future (next 3 years or so) 9 wins is pretty much the plateau but if he does get the talent to flow in as he installs his system, then we can compete and double digit wins become possible.

I think they are going to Atlanta next year.
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bphi11ips

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Norms? We've averaged 6.75 wins per regular season since the adoption of the 12-game season.

Yes, I think Morris will do awesome here. But to declare 9 win seasons as becoming the "norm" with no evidence of anything yet?

This is why our fanbase goes into meltdown mode every. single. year.

He said 8-9 win seasons.

The FBS began 12-game regular seasons in 2006.  Arkansas averaged 8.33 wins per regular season from 2006 to 2011 under Nutt/Petrino.  That number dropped to 5.17 in the six years under Smith/Bielema.  Smith/Bielema's 31 regular season wins was the lowest six-year total since Barnhill/Douglas/Wyatt won 22 from 1948-53. 

If you count ties as half a win, Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield's regular season winning percentage over 32 years was .714.  That's 8.57 wins per year based upon a 12 game schedule.

If you believe Chad Morris is in the same class as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino, then 8 to 9 win regular seasons is a reasonable expectation. 
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rhames


Norms? What have you seen to make you think that could become the norm? We've averaged 6.75 wins per regular season since the adoption of the 12-game season.

Yes, I think Morris will do awesome here. But to declare 9 win seasons as becoming the "norm" with no evidence of anything yet?

This is why our fanbase goes into meltdown mode every. single. year.


Have you not heard? Morris is the next Frank!


(Yes that was posted here)
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steveaustin69

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He said 8-9 win seasons.

The FBS began 12-game regular seasons in 2006.  Arkansas averaged 8.33 wins per regular season from 2006 to 2011 under Nutt/Petrino.  That number dropped to 5.17 in the six years under Smith/Bielema.  Smith/Bielema's 31 regular season wins was the lowest six-year total since Barnhill/Douglas/Wyatt won 22 from 1948-53. 

If you count ties as half a win, Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield's regular season winning percentage over 32 years was .714.  That's 8.57 wins per year based upon a 12 game schedule.

If you believe Chad Morris is in the same class as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino, then 8 to 9 win regular seasons is a reasonable expectation.

Are we just gonna pretend Danny Ford, Jack Crowe, and first half of Houston's tenure didn't exist?

Morris has me extremely excited, but comparing him and expecting him to match or exceed two HoF coaches and a coach who had 87 wins in 10 seasons at Clemson and Arkansas, is, well, it is something.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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He said 8-9 win seasons.

The FBS began 12-game regular seasons in 2006.  Arkansas averaged 8.33 wins per regular season from 2006 to 2011 under Nutt/Petrino.  That number dropped to 5.17 in the six years under Smith/Bielema.  Smith/Bielema's 31 regular season wins was the lowest six-year total since Barnhill/Douglas/Wyatt won 22 from 1948-53. 

If you count ties as half a win, Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield's regular season winning percentage over 32 years was .714.  That's 8.57 wins per year based upon a 12 game schedule.

If you believe Chad Morris is in the same class as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino, then 8 to 9 win regular seasons is a reasonable expectation.

Yes, I know what he said. He said "8-4 and 9-3 could be the norms." Those numbers added together equal twelve games. As I said, since the adoption of the 12-game schedule, we average 6.75 wins per regular season. Given what evidence (apart from cherry-picked numbers that conveniently forget some pretty subpar coaches) should that be the norm?

8.33 under Nutt/Petrino happened just as 5.17 under Smith/Bielema happened.

You cherry-picked our best coaches because you think Morris may be in their league. I hope and pray Morris is in their league. But we've had how many spring practices? We have no idea if Morris is in their league, or in one even higher. Or lower. Who knows?

The initial post I took issue with said "8-4 and 9-3 could be the norms." Our norm since the 12-game schedule was adopted is 6.75, as has been said. I've seen no evidence yet that we should expect 1.25-2.25 more wins per year without Morris having coached a game. I don't know how one could conclude those totals should be "the norm" when we've seen nothing to support that yet.

If Morris comes out and wins 8 games this year, yeah I'd be more inclined to subscribe to that being the norm. But I don't know how you can put Morris in the Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino when the guy hasn't even led a fall practice.

Again, I love the hire. I'm ready and looking for any reason to put him in the the great-coaches category, but I'll wait until I see proven results that warrant that categorization.
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oldhawg


Are we just gonna pretend Danny Ford, Jack Crowe, and first half of Houston's tenure didn't exist?


No, but most fans are going to expect better performance than what the Razorbacks did under Ford and Crowe (and Smith and Bielema).  If expectations are truly that low, then the Razorbacks do indeed need to re-evaluate their conference association and D-1 status.

IMO expectations by most fans are more along the lines of Broyles, Holtz, Hatfield, Petrino, and part of the Nutt tenures.  Those, again IMO, are reasonable expectations. Which way do you swing in the expectation category?   
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bphi11ips

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Are we just gonna pretend Danny Ford, Jack Crowe, and first half of Houston's tenure didn't exist?

Morris has me extremely excited, but comparing him and expecting him to match or exceed two HoF coaches and a coach who had 87 wins in 10 seasons at Clemson and Arkansas, is, well, it is something.

You said “since the adoption of the 12-game season”.
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steveaustin69

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You said “since the adoption of the 12-game season”.

No I didn't, bozo.
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bphi11ips

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steveaustin69

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No, but most fans are going to expect better performance than what the Razorbacks did under Ford and Crowe (and Smith and Bielema).  If expectations are truly that low, then the Razorbacks do indeed need to re-evaluate their conference association and D-1 status.

IMO expectations by most fans are more along the lines of Broyles, Holtz, Hatfield, Petrino, and part of the Nutt tenures.  Those, again IMO, are reasonable expectations. Which way do you swing in the expectation category?

I don't have a very high expectation for football (for a multitude of reasons) unless we were to luck into a HoF level coach. We'll see if Morris is that.
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bennyl08

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Yes, I know what he said. He said "8-4 and 9-3 could be the norms." Those numbers added together equal twelve games. As I said, since the adoption of the 12-game schedule, we average 6.75 wins per regular season. Given what evidence (apart from cherry-picked numbers that conveniently forget some pretty subpar coaches) should that be the norm?

8.33 under Nutt/Petrino happened just as 5.17 under Smith/Bielema happened.

You cherry-picked our best coaches because you think Morris may be in their league. I hope and pray Morris is in their league. But we've had how many spring practices? We have no idea if Morris is in their league, or in one even higher. Or lower. Who knows?

The initial post I took issue with said "8-4 and 9-3 could be the norms." Our norm since the 12-game schedule was adopted is 6.75, as has been said. I've seen no evidence yet that we should expect 1.25-2.25 more wins per year without Morris having coached a game. I don't know how one could conclude those totals should be "the norm" when we've seen nothing to support that yet.

If Morris comes out and wins 8 games this year, yeah I'd be more inclined to subscribe to that being the norm. But I don't know how you can put Morris in the Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino when the guy hasn't even led a fall practice.

Again, I love the hire. I'm ready and looking for any reason to put him in the the great-coaches category, but I'll wait until I see proven results that warrant that categorization.

I think that's your problem right there. Nowhere was the poster saying "this is what I'd bet my life will be the norm" or anything like that. Big difference b/w the words "could" and "should". He did say that he thinks the coach will get us there, but again, that's not the same as saying he knows the coach will get us there.

Also, that isn't cherry picking of the data. It is categorizing the data. If you were trying to talk about the speed of football players, it wouldn't make any sense to compare offensive line guys to cornerbacks. All you are going to get is a value that doesn't accurately describe anything. Or if you want another analogy, the average precipitation in Washington. Given how different eastern washington is from western, if you just average the state as a whole, you going to get a value that isn't useful for describing anywhere in the state. It's the same thing with coaches of a football team.

Looking at the overall average is exactly what you should do if you were say trying to make a bet on what our record will be from the year 2030-2034 for example. However, there's so much variability from year to year that if you were to try and use that to describe a specific coach or a specific season, you'd be wrong, way, way more often that you'd be right. To the point that you'd actually be correct more often by going above or below the average than you would actually sitting right at the average.
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steveaustin69

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I think that's your problem right there. Nowhere was the poster saying "this is what I'd bet my life will be the norm" or anything like that. Big difference b/w the words "could" and "should". He did say that he thinks the coach will get us there, but again, that's not the same as saying he knows the coach will get us there.

Also, that isn't cherry picking of the data. It is categorizing the data. If you were trying to talk about the speed of football players, it wouldn't make any sense to compare offensive line guys to cornerbacks. All you are going to get is a value that doesn't accurately describe anything. Or if you want another analogy, the average precipitation in Washington. Given how different eastern washington is from western, if you just average the state as a whole, you going to get a value that isn't useful for describing anywhere in the state. It's the same thing with coaches of a football team.

Looking at the overall average is exactly what you should do if you were say trying to make a bet on what our record will be from the year 2030-2034 for example. However, there's so much variability from year to year that if you were to try and use that to describe a specific coach or a specific season, you'd be wrong, way, way more often that you'd be right. To the point that you'd actually be correct more often by going above or below the average than you would actually sitting right at the average.

Just wanted to let you know I never read your novels.
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cityhog

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This staff is going to surprise people.  I don’t know if we’ll ever win a title, although I think it’s possible, but we are going to get back to Petrino level competitiveness.  From there, time and circumstance will tell the tale.

I truly think the only people who are going to be surprised are the people expecting better/different results.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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I think that's your problem right there. Nowhere was the poster saying "this is what I'd bet my life will be the norm" or anything like that. Big difference b/w the words "could" and "should". He did say that he thinks the coach will get us there, but again, that's not the same as saying he knows the coach will get us there.

Also, that isn't cherry picking of the data. It is categorizing the data. If you were trying to talk about the speed of football players, it wouldn't make any sense to compare offensive line guys to cornerbacks. All you are going to get is a value that doesn't accurately describe anything. Or if you want another analogy, the average precipitation in Washington. Given how different eastern washington is from western, if you just average the state as a whole, you going to get a value that isn't useful for describing anywhere in the state. It's the same thing with coaches of a football team.

Looking at the overall average is exactly what you should do if you were say trying to make a bet on what our record will be from the year 2030-2034 for example. However, there's so much variability from year to year that if you were to try and use that to describe a specific coach or a specific season, you'd be wrong, way, way more often that you'd be right. To the point that you'd actually be correct more often by going above or below the average than you would actually sitting right at the average.

Then why choose our best coaches of all-time to categorize the data? Why conveniently exclude Crowe/Kines/Ford? Because it doesn't fit the narrative? If we're looking at an entire body of work, shouldn't they be included?

Why place Morris into the category of our great coaches when he hasn't coached a game? Could his averages match those of John L. and Bret? Could his averages match those of Nutt and Petrino? Sure. Why not?

Comparing the speed of offensive linemen and cornerbacks is not remotely the same as comparing the wins and losses of head coaches scattered throughout our history. Especially when three poor coaches are conveniently left out of the sample.

We have no evidence Morris could make 8-9 wins the norm.
We have no evidence Morris couldn't make 8-9 wins the norm.

Forgive me for not wanting to place a guy who hasn't coached a game for us in the same category as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Petrino, and believing he could do something with no evidence (evidence being numbers that include Crowe/Kines/Ford and not just the stud coaches that were conveniently selected) to support it.

As I said, yeah he comes out and wins 7-8 this year, then I'll be more inclined to believe that 8-9 could be the norm. Why should I believe that now? Based on what? Our best coaches? What about our worst coaches?

Not excluding any coach, we've averaged 6.75 wins per year per 12 games since switching to a 12-game season. Since you can't win 6.75 games in one season, let's do what you said. Go above, we get 7. Go below, we get 6. I don't see 8-9 in either of those.

Could that change? Well of course. I hope it does. But I'm not seeing right now why we're ready to crown it.

What does your personal FPI have say for us this year?
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rogersvillemohog


Man, this thread is really taking the biscuit. What has happened to this fan base? Folks, I get it, the last few years have been tough on all of us, but there is absolutely no reason whatsoever that we can't be consistently good every year and great every couple of years. I am not defending Houston Nutt at all, but wasn't it Hogville that helped lead the charge on Houston because mediocrity wasn't acceptable?

In 2011, after going 29-10 in a three year span, making a Sugar Bowl the year before, and finishing #5 in the country, I think we all would have said that 5.17 wins a year over the next 6 years would not have been acceptable. Why are so many telling us that it is acceptable and we should all be happy with winning 6 games/year? Shouldn't the return on investment of firing Bielema and paying that stupidly massive buyout be more than 1.5-2 wins per year?

Those of us that expect more understand that it will take time. Morris has a big project in front of him, and I think everyone understands that and is willing to give him time. I will, however, give Bielema credit on one thing; he left the program in better shape than Bobby and the lame duck John L. The program no longer has a scarlet letter. There is a recipe to win here and do it on a consistent basis, and it can be done. We have all seen it. I am getting so sick and tired of the "little old Arkysaw" crap. C'mon y'all.
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bennyl08

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Then why choose our best coaches of all-time to categorize the data? Why conveniently exclude Crowe/Kines/Ford? Because it doesn't fit the narrative? If we're looking at an entire body of work, shouldn't they be included?

He started at 2006 because that's when we switched to 12 game regular season schedule. How young are you to think that he included our best coaches of all time? Ever hear of some guy named Frank Broyles or even Lou Holtz? If you think Nutt is among our two best coaches "of all-time" then wow is all I can say to that.

Further, let's go back to what the question at hand was. What is the level of success that Arkansas can sustain? Does it make sense to look at the coaches that didn't have any success when answering that question? Or, to frame that question another way, what level of sustained success should we expect a good to great coach to have here?

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Why place Morris into the category of our great coaches when he hasn't coached a game? Could his averages match those of John L. and Bret? Could his averages match those of Nutt and Petrino? Sure. Why not?

That is a great question. I don't know why anybody would place Morris into that category of being a great coach when he hasn't coached a single game here yet. Lucky for us, the poster you were responding to in no way shape or form did that.

It would literally be exactly as relevant to ask why anybody would think the gravitational force is stronger than the electromagnetic force. Sure, absolutely nobody in this thread has made such a statement, but nobody has placed Morris into the category of great coaches. We could spend all day asking why people would do something that nobody here has actually done, but I don't see any purpose in doing so.

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Comparing the speed of offensive linemen and cornerbacks is not remotely the same as comparing the wins and losses of head coaches scattered throughout our history. Especially when three poor coaches are conveniently left out of the sample.

It really is comparable though. If you ask me who the fastest players on our team, would I "conveniently" leaving out the offensive linemen, or are they not relevant whatsoever to that question? Again, the fundamental question being debated here is "what can we realistically expect a good to great coach to sustain here at arkansas and/or what level of sustained results would indicate that we have a good to great coach?"

The question isn't "what is the average we have done among our good and bad coaches?".

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We have no evidence Morris could make 8-9 wins the norm.
We have no evidence Morris couldn't make 8-9 wins the norm.

There is some evidence for both actually. However, anybody willing to bet their house or something on either happening would be a complete idiot. Again though, the poster you were responding to never said that anything was bankable. The poster never said they knew Morris would make that the norm. The poster said they think that will be the norm.

If I flip a coin in the air, there is absolutely nothing wrong with thinking it will land hands instead of tails. You obviously can't know for certain that will be the result, but every single football game starts with requiring somebody to make exactly such a guess.

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Forgive me for not wanting to place a guy who hasn't coached a game for us in the same category as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Petrino, and believing he could do something with no evidence (evidence being numbers that include Crowe/Kines/Ford and not just the stud coaches that were conveniently selected) to support it.

You are forgiven? The poster themselves wasn't placing Morris in that category either. So again, not sure why you keep playing the game of talking about something that nobody has brought up in this thread. On the plus side, it's great to now know that you know some of the older coaches we have had. Though sad that you apparently think Nutt is better than all of them save for maybe Petrino since you claimed the the combo of Nutt and Petrino were the best coaches of all time here...

Again, it isn't "convenient" to leave out the bad coaches when the question is "what level of success can a good coach have. It makes absolutely no sense your fixation on this. "Hey, how fast can humans run?" "Well, here are results from olympic sprinters..." "How convenient, why are you ignoring all the fat people you see in wal-marts? What a dishonest answer to the question of 'how fast can a human be' to only include the fastest humans and not talk about the slow ones!". That is exactly what you sound like.

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As I said, yeah he comes out and wins 7-8 this year, then I'll be more inclined to believe that 8-9 could be the norm. Why should I believe that now? Based on what? Our best coaches? What about our worst coaches?

Why should you believe that now? There is no overwhelming evidence that you should. But again, nobody is saying that you should think that. So, it makes zero sense that you keep harping on that.

What about our worst coaches you ask? Well, what about them, what relevancy do they remotely have to the question. IF we hire a great coach, what level of success would be the norm specifically while that coach is here? Not, what will be the norm when we factor in the bad coaches that come before and after. What would be the norm for our program while we have a great coach? Not that Morris IS a great coach or that he IS a bad coach or that he IS an average coach. Nobody is making absolutist declarations about what will happen. They are guessing that the coin flip will come up heads, and that based on what good to great coaches have done here in the past, if that guess is correct, then 8-9 wins could be the norm. Which, even then, that is hedged by the word 'could' because who knows what will happen with our competition as well.

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Not excluding any coach, we've averaged 6.75 wins per year per 12 games since switching to a 12-game season. Since you can't win 6.75 games in one season, let's do what you said. Go above, we get 7. Go below, we get 6. I don't see 8-9 in either of those.

Correct. However, that's the answer to the question of what have we done on average over that time frame and not the question that you are responding to which is "what level of wins would we see if our coach is above average?"

Obviously, the answer to that question is going to be higher than the full average. Why? Because we aren't looking to hire or keep a coach that is merely average and definitely not below average. Thus, those results aren't relevant to the question being asked.

If Morris meets those averages or fails to meet those, he'll be gone. What matters is, what would Morris have to do to stay here long term. What level of success would we accept long term? Obviously, nobody knows for certain what type of coach Morris will come to be here. The poster you are criticizing guesses he will be good and provided evidence for what results a good coach can get here. Obviously, the norm for a good coach will be higher than the norm on average which includes bad coaches. However, it is also obvious that it is idiotic to feel an impulsive need to include results from bad coaches when talking about what kind of success a good coach can have.

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Could that change? Well of course. I hope it does. But I'm not seeing right now why we're ready to crown it.

There's a good reason you aren't seeing right now why we should crown anything because NOBODY is saying that we should. You are absolutely right that we shouldn't be crowning Morris as a great coach yet. Nobody has done so. Nobody has crowned him a bad coach or an average coach either. Right now, the coin is up in the air and turning over, and people are taking guesses whether it will be heads or tails and that is it. Nobody is declaring or crowning anything, just taking guesses. There is ample evidence to suggest that Morris could be a great coach. We wouldn't have hired him if there wasn't. However, there's evidence to suggest he won't be either. Which comes to pass only time will tell and nobody is saying different.

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What does your personal FPI have say for us this year?

If we were basing things purely off of the physical talent of the players compared to our opponents, I'd say we go 8-4. However, there's also the mental state of our players not to mention our opponents that will play a major role and that would be harder to answer than the instantaneous velocity of a random point in the deep ocean would be. Further, we have no idea how good of a playcaller Morris will be at the SEC level not to mention many of our opponents who also have new coaches.

Take MSU for example. Over the past 5 years, the record is 4-1 in their favor with an average margin of 1.2 points. We have objectively had significantly more talent their their teams, but they have had quite arguably the best coach in the history of their program compared to us having a below average coach relative to our average. For those who argue that the Jimmy's and Joe's are way more important than the X's and O's, this is a great counter example. Now, if we are simply blindly comparing what will happen next year, odds are, MSU will be worse, and possibly significantly worse simply due to regression to the mean. Similarly, we should be improve due to no other reason than regression to the mean as well. Will that be how it actually plays out? Who knows. Our new HC is extremely green as far as head coaches go. However, MSU's new coach isn't even green yet that's how inexperienced he is. For all we know, Morris could be so bad he makes Smiley look like Saban and MSU's new coach could be so great, he makes Saban look like Smiley or vice versa, or anywhere in b/w. If I had to guess, I'd guess that we win given how small the margin has been over the past 5 years and how the new coaching changes are likely to impact the teams. However, that guess of us winning is similar to be guessing that a coin will come up tails since the head side of the coin is heavier so it is slightly more likely to face down.
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steveaustin69

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He started at 2006 because that's when we switched to 12 game regular season schedule. How young are you to think that he included our best coaches of all time? Ever hear of some guy named Frank Broyles or even Lou Holtz? If you think Nutt is among our two best coaches "of all-time" then wow is all I can say to that.

Further, let's go back to what the question at hand was. What is the level of success that Arkansas can sustain? Does it make sense to look at the coaches that didn't have any success when answering that question? Or, to frame that question another way, what level of sustained success should we expect a good to great coach to have here?

That is a great question. I don't know why anybody would place Morris into that category of being a great coach when he hasn't coached a single game here yet. Lucky for us, the poster you were responding to in no way shape or form did that.

It would literally be exactly as relevant to ask why anybody would think the gravitational force is stronger than the electromagnetic force. Sure, absolutely nobody in this thread has made such a statement, but nobody has placed Morris into the category of great coaches. We could spend all day asking why people would do something that nobody here has actually done, but I don't see any purpose in doing so.

It really is comparable though. If you ask me who the fastest players on our team, would I "conveniently" leaving out the offensive linemen, or are they not relevant whatsoever to that question? Again, the fundamental question being debated here is "what can we realistically expect a good to great coach to sustain here at arkansas and/or what level of sustained results would indicate that we have a good to great coach?"

The question isn't "what is the average we have done among our good and bad coaches?".

There is some evidence for both actually. However, anybody willing to bet their house or something on either happening would be a complete idiot. Again though, the poster you were responding to never said that anything was bankable. The poster never said they knew Morris would make that the norm. The poster said they think that will be the norm.

If I flip a coin in the air, there is absolutely nothing wrong with thinking it will land hands instead of tails. You obviously can't know for certain that will be the result, but every single football game starts with requiring somebody to make exactly such a guess.

You are forgiven? The poster themselves wasn't placing Morris in that category either. So again, not sure why you keep playing the game of talking about something that nobody has brought up in this thread. On the plus side, it's great to now know that you know some of the older coaches we have had. Though sad that you apparently think Nutt is better than all of them save for maybe Petrino since you claimed the the combo of Nutt and Petrino were the best coaches of all time here...

Again, it isn't "convenient" to leave out the bad coaches when the question is "what level of success can a good coach have. It makes absolutely no sense your fixation on this. "Hey, how fast can humans run?" "Well, here are results from olympic sprinters..." "How convenient, why are you ignoring all the fat people you see in wal-marts? What a dishonest answer to the question of 'how fast can a human be' to only include the fastest humans and not talk about the slow ones!". That is exactly what you sound like.

Why should you believe that now? There is no overwhelming evidence that you should. But again, nobody is saying that you should think that. So, it makes zero sense that you keep harping on that.

What about our worst coaches you ask? Well, what about them, what relevancy do they remotely have to the question. IF we hire a great coach, what level of success would be the norm specifically while that coach is here? Not, what will be the norm when we factor in the bad coaches that come before and after. What would be the norm for our program while we have a great coach? Not that Morris IS a great coach or that he IS a bad coach or that he IS an average coach. Nobody is making absolutist declarations about what will happen. They are guessing that the coin flip will come up heads, and that based on what good to great coaches have done here in the past, if that guess is correct, then 8-9 wins could be the norm. Which, even then, that is hedged by the word 'could' because who knows what will happen with our competition as well.

Correct. However, that's the answer to the question of what have we done on average over that time frame and not the question that you are responding to which is "what level of wins would we see if our coach is above average?"

Obviously, the answer to that question is going to be higher than the full average. Why? Because we aren't looking to hire or keep a coach that is merely average and definitely not below average. Thus, those results aren't relevant to the question being asked.

If Morris meets those averages or fails to meet those, he'll be gone. What matters is, what would Morris have to do to stay here long term. What level of success would we accept long term? Obviously, nobody knows for certain what type of coach Morris will come to be here. The poster you are criticizing guesses he will be good and provided evidence for what results a good coach can get here. Obviously, the norm for a good coach will be higher than the norm on average which includes bad coaches. However, it is also obvious that it is idiotic to feel an impulsive need to include results from bad coaches when talking about what kind of success a good coach can have.

There's a good reason you aren't seeing right now why we should crown anything because NOBODY is saying that we should. You are absolutely right that we shouldn't be crowning Morris as a great coach yet. Nobody has done so. Nobody has crowned him a bad coach or an average coach either. Right now, the coin is up in the air and turning over, and people are taking guesses whether it will be heads or tails and that is it. Nobody is declaring or crowning anything, just taking guesses. There is ample evidence to suggest that Morris could be a great coach. We wouldn't have hired him if there wasn't. However, there's evidence to suggest he won't be either. Which comes to pass only time will tell and nobody is saying different.

If we were basing things purely off of the physical talent of the players compared to our opponents, I'd say we go 8-4. However, there's also the mental state of our players not to mention our opponents that will play a major role and that would be harder to answer than the instantaneous velocity of a random point in the deep ocean would be. Further, we have no idea how good of a playcaller Morris will be at the SEC level not to mention many of our opponents who also have new coaches.

Take MSU for example. Over the past 5 years, the record is 4-1 in their favor with an average margin of 1.2 points. We have objectively had significantly more talent their their teams, but they have had quite arguably the best coach in the history of their program compared to us having a below average coach relative to our average. For those who argue that the Jimmy's and Joe's are way more important than the X's and O's, this is a great counter example. Now, if we are simply blindly comparing what will happen next year, odds are, MSU will be worse, and possibly significantly worse simply due to regression to the mean. Similarly, we should be improve due to no other reason than regression to the mean as well. Will that be how it actually plays out? Who knows. Our new HC is extremely green as far as head coaches go. However, MSU's new coach isn't even green yet that's how inexperienced he is. For all we know, Morris could be so bad he makes Smiley look like Saban and MSU's new coach could be so great, he makes Saban look like Smiley or vice versa, or anywhere in b/w. If I had to guess, I'd guess that we win given how small the margin has been over the past 5 years and how the new coaching changes are likely to impact the teams. However, that guess of us winning is similar to be guessing that a coin will come up tails since the head side of the coin is heavier so it is slightly more likely to face down.

I don't even have to read this to know you put however much effort into a bunch of long winded paragraphs that actually don't say much of anything.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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He started at 2006 because that's when we switched to 12 game regular season schedule. How young are you to think that he included our best coaches of all time? Ever hear of some guy named Frank Broyles or even Lou Holtz? If you think Nutt is among our two best coaches "of all-time" then wow is all I can say to that.


Dude. Ever read? When I was saying "best coaches," I was including the guys Bphil said. Because for some reason, we should already "believe Morris in the same class." Based on what?

From Bphil: "If you count ties as half a win, Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield's regular season winning percentage over 32 years was .714.  That's 8.57 wins per year based upon a 12 game schedule.

If you believe Chad Morris is in the same class as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino, then 8 to 9 win regular seasons is a reasonable expectation. "


I started at 2006 initially. Bphil didn't. He just split it up into two different categories. Nutt/Petrino, and Smith/Bielema. Doesn't matter. Still comes out to 6.75 no matter how you split up the years since 2006.

I started when the switch to a 12-game schedule took place. He split it. And then he went back and decided to include those coaches from some of our greatest years, because I guess he believes (with no evidence) that "Chad Morris is in the same class as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino" His words, not mine.

He's the one who conveniently excluded Crowe/Kines/Ford. I then said to include them to make the whole case consistent.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2018, 03:07:22 pm by RyanMallettsEgo »
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AlmaHog2011

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If we get to that level, he gone.

Good lord you don't know that! If he can build something her this is a great place to live and work. Your opinion of Arkansas isn't what others that are moving here in droves think.
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bennyl08

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Dude. Ever read? When I was saying "best coaches," I was including the guys Bphil said. Because for some reason, we should already "believe Morris in the same class." Based on what?

You said best "of all time" when referring to his split of Nutt/Petrino. If you were only including the best of 2006 to present, then why say "of all time"? Hard to blame the reader for that, though I believe you when you say that wasn't what you intended to communicate.

Who is saying we should believe Morris is in the same class? Heck, bphil never even said he thinks Morris could be in that same class, he was simply trying to help your reading comprehension of jgphil by showing showing that 8-9 wins is the going average for great coaches at the UA saying literally nothing of whether or not Morris is one of those.

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From Bphil: "If you count ties as half a win, Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield's regular season winning percentage over 32 years was .714.  That's 8.57 wins per year based upon a 12 game schedule.

That was Bphil providing evidence that IF jgphil was correct in guessing Morris was on the same level as some of our great coaches, that having 8-9 wins a year would be an accurate norm to expect. Again, that poster never once said, at least in this thread, that Morris is in fact at that level.

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If you believe Chad Morris is in the same class as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino, then 8 to 9 win regular seasons is a reasonable expectation. "[/i]

See above.

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I started at 2006 initially. Bphil didn't. He just split it up into two different categories. Nutt/Petrino, and Smith/Bielema. Doesn't matter. Still comes out to 6.75 no matter how you split up the years since 2006.

Yeah, because different coaches have different results. Further, it doesn't come out to 6.75 no matter how you split up the years. It only comes out to 6.75 if you don't split up the years. Further further, including all the years makes absolutely zero logical sense in answering the question. Why would you include bad coaches in answering the question of what does a good coach look like? Other than to say "they don't do that...".

Nobody is asking what the overall norm for us has been, good and bad coaches included. The question you are responding to is what is the norm for a good to great coach here?

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I started when the switch to a 12-game schedule took place. He split it. And then he went back and decided to include those coaches from some of our greatest years, because I guess he believes (with no evidence) that "Chad Morris is in the same class as Broyles/Holtz/Hatfield/Nutt/Petrino" His words, not mine.

He split is because the question was never about what the norm for us in overall. It was what the norm would be for a great coach.

Also, no, those aren't his words, because you chopped off the very important "if you believe..." which that poster has not once stated that he does in this thread. His posts have entirely been that if the other poster's GUESS is correct that Morris will be on that level, then his claim that 8-9 wins being the norm is accurate. Seriously, reading comprehension. 

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He's the one who conveniently excluded Crowe/Kines/Ford. I then said to include them to make the whole case consistent.

Now you've just gone full retard. He didn't conveniently exclude those coaches. You literally just brought up multiple times in this post that you were the one to initiate the limit to 2006 onwards, so how can you fault him for not including the coaches that weren't in that time frame? He included every single coach during the time frame you listed. He in no way excluded anybody, conveniently or otherwise. The only thing he did was categorize the data to help answer the actual question which was what the norm for wins would be for the hogs with a good to great coach. Unless you think Crowe is among the better coaches at Arkansas, then it isn't convenient to exclude him, it's imperative or else you aren't answering the actual question.

The post then later went beyond your time from of 2006 onwards to increase the sample size of good coaches in answering the actual question of what the norm would be for a great coach here. So yes, he only included the great coaches because anything else would either be a dishonest answer or would show a complete lack of understanding of what was being discussed. Which for the umpteenth time, is what the norm for wins would be for a great coach. Which again, he has not stated in this thread whether or not he thinks Morris is a great coach. That was a different poster who said that and even that poster never claimed to know for sure that Morris is a great coach. Only that the poster thinks Morris is great.
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RyanMallettsEgo

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You said best "of all time" when referring to his split of Nutt/Petrino. If you were only including the best of 2006 to present, then why say "of all time"? Hard to blame the reader for that, though I believe you when you say that wasn't what you intended to communicate.

Who is saying we should believe Morris is in the same class? Heck, bphil never even said he thinks Morris could be in that same class, he was simply trying to help your reading comprehension of jgphil by showing showing that 8-9 wins is the going average for great coaches at the UA saying literally nothing of whether or not Morris is one of those.

That was Bphil providing evidence that IF jgphil was correct in guessing Morris was on the same level as some of our great coaches, that having 8-9 wins a year would be an accurate norm to expect. Again, that poster never once said, at least in this thread, that Morris is in fact at that level.

See above.

Yeah, because different coaches have different results. Further, it doesn't come out to 6.75 no matter how you split up the years. It only comes out to 6.75 if you don't split up the years. Further further, including all the years makes absolutely zero logical sense in answering the question. Why would you include bad coaches in answering the question of what does a good coach look like? Other than to say "they don't do that...".

Nobody is asking what the overall norm for us has been, good and bad coaches included. The question you are responding to is what is the norm for a good to great coach here?

He split is because the question was never about what the norm for us in overall. It was what the norm would be for a great coach.

Also, no, those aren't his words, because you chopped off the very important "if you believe..." which that poster has not once stated that he does in this thread. His posts have entirely been that if the other poster's GUESS is correct that Morris will be on that level, then his claim that 8-9 wins being the norm is accurate. Seriously, reading comprehension. 

Now you've just gone full retard. He didn't conveniently exclude those coaches. You literally just brought up multiple times in this post that you were the one to initiate the limit to 2006 onwards, so how can you fault him for not including the coaches that weren't in that time frame? He included every single coach during the time frame you listed. He in no way excluded anybody, conveniently or otherwise. The only thing he did was categorize the data to help answer the actual question which was what the norm for wins would be for the hogs with a good to great coach. Unless you think Crowe is among the better coaches at Arkansas, then it isn't convenient to exclude him, it's imperative or else you aren't answering the actual question.

The post then later went beyond your time from of 2006 onwards to increase the sample size of good coaches in answering the actual question of what the norm would be for a great coach here. So yes, he only included the great coaches because anything else would either be a dishonest answer or would show a complete lack of understanding of what was being discussed. Which for the umpteenth time, is what the norm for wins would be for a great coach. Which again, he has not stated in this thread whether or not he thinks Morris is a great coach. That was a different poster who said that and even that poster never claimed to know for sure that Morris is a great coach. Only that the poster thinks Morris is great.

There's something to be said about concise thoughts and brevity. Several of my professors at the U of A had us summarize entire chapters of books, or sometimes an entire book itself, in 10 words. I suggest you try that with your posts sometimes.

I'm all for discussion, but I'm not reading and responding to multiple novellas throughout the day, especially when the ad hominems ("now you've gone full retard") come out to play.

Call me lazy, cuss me, say I give up, sit on your high horse that you're a smart man on an anonymous message board, whatever. It's all for fun and none of this matters at all.

But we can go the ad hominem route if you want. You have a gift. No one else here types so much and says so little. Long posts with statistics, sure. They're great. But man. These ramble sessions are otherworldy.

These novellas are actually kinda funny. Learn how to summarize thoughts in fewer words.

Have a cold one and relax.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2018, 06:17:57 pm by RyanMallettsEgo »
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steveaustin69

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You said best "of all time" when referring to his split of Nutt/Petrino. If you were only including the best of 2006 to present, then why say "of all time"? Hard to blame the reader for that, though I believe you when you say that wasn't what you intended to communicate.

Who is saying we should believe Morris is in the same class? Heck, bphil never even said he thinks Morris could be in that same class, he was simply trying to help your reading comprehension of jgphil by showing showing that 8-9 wins is the going average for great coaches at the UA saying literally nothing of whether or not Morris is one of those.

That was Bphil providing evidence that IF jgphil was correct in guessing Morris was on the same level as some of our great coaches, that having 8-9 wins a year would be an accurate norm to expect. Again, that poster never once said, at least in this thread, that Morris is in fact at that level.

See above.

Yeah, because different coaches have different results. Further, it doesn't come out to 6.75 no matter how you split up the years. It only comes out to 6.75 if you don't split up the years. Further further, including all the years makes absolutely zero logical sense in answering the question. Why would you include bad coaches in answering the question of what does a good coach look like? Other than to say "they don't do that...".

Nobody is asking what the overall norm for us has been, good and bad coaches included. The question you are responding to is what is the norm for a good to great coach here?

He split is because the question was never about what the norm for us in overall. It was what the norm would be for a great coach.

Also, no, those aren't his words, because you chopped off the very important "if you believe..." which that poster has not once stated that he does in this thread. His posts have entirely been that if the other poster's GUESS is correct that Morris will be on that level, then his claim that 8-9 wins being the norm is accurate. Seriously, reading comprehension. 

Now you've just gone full retard. He didn't conveniently exclude those coaches. You literally just brought up multiple times in this post that you were the one to initiate the limit to 2006 onwards, so how can you fault him for not including the coaches that weren't in that time frame? He included every single coach during the time frame you listed. He in no way excluded anybody, conveniently or otherwise. The only thing he did was categorize the data to help answer the actual question which was what the norm for wins would be for the hogs with a good to great coach. Unless you think Crowe is among the better coaches at Arkansas, then it isn't convenient to exclude him, it's imperative or else you aren't answering the actual question.

The post then later went beyond your time from of 2006 onwards to increase the sample size of good coaches in answering the actual question of what the norm would be for a great coach here. So yes, he only included the great coaches because anything else would either be a dishonest answer or would show a complete lack of understanding of what was being discussed. Which for the umpteenth time, is what the norm for wins would be for a great coach. Which again, he has not stated in this thread whether or not he thinks Morris is a great coach. That was a different poster who said that and even that poster never claimed to know for sure that Morris is a great coach. Only that the poster thinks Morris is great.

tl; dr
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bphi11ips

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tl; dr

Lol.  At least one of you read it.
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steveaustin69

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Lol.  At least one of you read it.

Did you actually laugh out loud? Aren't you 50+? Lol.
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Pork Twain


I cannot believe so much butthurt has spun out a story from a nobody in BFE Virginia.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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For one, even in this first year, I don’t think Morris will ever have a 4-8 year. 5-7 is possible I guess this first year.  I think he will have us where 7-5 is a “down” year and 8 wins is kind of an expected floor.  As long as the conference remains this competitive, 8-4 and 9-3 could be the norms.  10-2 would be good years.  In a year where he has the right kind of talent and the stars align, 11-1 with a trip to Atlanta and/or a playoff shot are there.  So, to use your model, it’s not too far off but I would change 4-8 to 6-6 (or 7-5) and the 6-6 to 7-5 (or 8-4).  After that, probably not too far off the mark.  I think for the immediate future (next 3 years or so) 9 wins is pretty much the plateau but if he does get the talent to flow in as he installs his system, then we can compete and double digit wins become possible.

The record that Morris generates over his first 4 years here is going to depend upon how well he recruits. While "class points" are not the be-all, end-all in terms of what a coaching staff can get out of their players, it is just logical that increased talent on the field should on average, increase the odds of better performance on the field. Bielema increased our class value while he was here but in comparison to other SEC West schools (comparing the periods of 2013-2017 to 2007-2011) we made the least improvement. Surprisingly, it was A&M who gained the most ground over the previous period with Alabama next and then Ole Miss. So if Morris wants to win more games than his predecessor, this will be an important key. They are obviously focusing on that.

On the other hand, if our recruiting level remains static or only slightly improves I could see the 4 year average for Morris being something like 7 to 8 wins each year. That's an improvement over the 2014-2017 seasons by about 2 more wins each year on average. Is that going to make the fan base happier?
« Last Edit: April 11, 2018, 07:28:30 am by MuskogeeHogFan »
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WizardofhOgZ


I cannot believe so much butthurt has spun out a story from a nobody in BFE Virginia.

-1 if I could for not realizing that this was an ASSOCIATED PRESS (as stated in the Subject Line!) story carried by papers/websites across the nation; it was NOT written by someone in "BFE Virginia", it was written by AP National College Football writer Ralph Russo and carried by - among dozens of other outlets - this website for the newspaper in Virginia. 
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Pork Twain


-1 if I could for not realizing that this was an ASSOCIATED PRESS (as stated in the Subject Line!) story carried by papers/websites across the nation; it was NOT written by someone in "BFE Virginia", it was written by AP National College Football writer Ralph Russo and carried by - among dozens of other outlets - this website for the newspaper in Virginia. 
OMG, now I know what Guv feels like every time he posts.  It is so painful

My bad...  Delete post if I could.

Wait, I mean someone must have hacked my account posted this foolishness.

 8)
« Last Edit: April 12, 2018, 12:59:34 am by Pork Twain »
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