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Author Topic: 2018 Belmont Thread-Will Justify become the 13th Triple Crown Champion?  (Read 1932 times)

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HogFanInBryant


I sincerely believe due to the high cruising speed, and gigantic stride of Justify...that he will strut his stuff on a dry track in the Belmont Stakes and run away from the field pretty easy!  He seems to be the kind that will relish the sandy surface of Belmont Park and I honestly believe if he was going to lose, it would have been in Baltimore.
But...throw all of this out the window if the track comes up sloppy simply because of the uncertainty it would bring at this distance.  We should all be rooting for a dry track and a full field of competitors...and yes they need to run Audible if he is doing well.  If Justify is worthy of winning the Triple Crown, the co-ownership should step up and run Audible regardless.  Just my 2 cents worth!
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kingoftherapids


i think he wins easier than in baltimore.  i however don't think there is any way they run audible against him... we are talking millions and millions and millions more if he wins the triple crown. while it would be nice to see him beat him again, it just seems from an owner perspective to be crazy.
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cbhawg03


i think he wins easier than in baltimore.  i however don't think there is any way they run audible against him... we are talking millions and millions and millions more if he wins the triple crown. while it would be nice to see him beat him again, it just seems from an owner perspective to be crazy.

Just looked, didnít know they had exactly the same ownership.  So I seriously doubt they run him. 

They just give Pletcher a bonus, to cover the share he would get say if Audible won instead of running him?
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oldman1015


Just looked, didn’t know they had exactly the same ownership.  So I seriously doubt they run him. 

They just give Pletcher a bonus, to cover the share he would get say if Audible won instead of running him?
Heard the other day majority owners are the same. Just think of you owned 10% of Audible. it will be bad for the sport if they don't run him.
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userpick


Pletcher knows Audible isnít even his best chance of winning the race.
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oldman1015


Pletcher knows Audible isn’t even his best chance of winning the race.
Who does he have that's better? If you owned Audible would you run him in the Belmont? I would.
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cbhawg03


Who does he have that's better? If you owned Audible would you run him in the Belmont? I would.

Vino Rosso
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oldman1015


Vino Rosso
I respectfully disagree.
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userpick


Who does he have that's better? If you owned Audible would you run him in the Belmont? I would.

If I owned him I wouldnít run him.

1) heís got no chance to win.
2) it could screw up the triple crown
3) heís got no chance to win
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HogFanInBryant


If I owned him I wouldnít run him.

1) heís got no chance to win.
2) it could screw up the triple crown
3) heís got no chance to win

Are you saying Audible can't win because of his pedigree?
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HogFanInBryant


Vino Rosso

I'm not going to debate VR and Audible...but just curious are you saying this from a standpoint of being bred for the distance or not?
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cbhawg03


I respectfully disagree.

I'm not going to debate VR and Audible...but just curious are you saying this from a standpoint of being bred for the distance or not?

I was just answering for UP. 
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cbhawg03


I personally like Audible and told UP that I would take Audible in the Belmont few minutes after the KY Derby
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mckinneyhog5


No TC this year as Justify won't be winning it.
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HogFanInBryant


I personally like Audible and told UP that I would take Audible in the Belmont few minutes after the KY Derby

Oh ok just wondered what you guys might think about VR and Audible as far as the 1.5 mile distance goes.  I am hearing lots of "experts" chirping that Audible won't go that far because of breeding...and I am an idiot when it comes to keeping up with how far horses should go or not go...my major handicapping downfall!
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HogFanInBryant


Here is a question for all of you...just want your opinions on this?
Fill in the blank:
If Justify gets the first 6 furlongs of the Belmont up front by himself in ______ or slower, he will run away from them?
If the track is dry and seems to be playing fair, I'd say mid to high 1:12ish...
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cbhawg03


Oh ok just wondered what you guys might think about VR and Audible as far as the 1.5 mile distance goes.  I am hearing lots of "experts" chirping that Audible won't go that far because of breeding...and I am an idiot when it comes to keeping up with how far horses should go or not go...my major handicapping downfall!

Who is bred for the distance? Nobody in America these days with a dirt breeding, and the ones that are bred for it arenít good enough. 

Audible didnít seem to have a problem going 10F, maybe levels out more going 12, but pace usually never as fast either.  He wouldnít be far back and would just cruise along and grind away. 

At this point, I think he has a better chance of running and winning the race, if entered than he actually does of even running in the race.  Seriously doubt they run him cause they canít have their own horse eliminate their Triple Crown bid. 
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heavylifting

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Haven't been keeping up on post-Preakness doings.  Has anything been written about Audible perhaps trying the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day?  A one-turn mile against older horses.  3-year-olds actually have done well in this race over the years. Written under handicap conditions, so I would imagine Audible would get in somewhere around 110-112 pounds.

Or does WinStar or Pletcher have something better lined up for the Met Mile?

Would make for a slam-bang day for WinStar and friends if they could pull off this and the Belmont. 
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cbhawg03


Haven't been keeping up on post-Preakness doings.  Has anything been written about Audible perhaps trying the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day?  A one-turn mile against older horses.  3-year-olds actually have done well in this race over the years. Written under handicap conditions, so I would imagine Audible would get in somewhere around 110-112 pounds.

Or does WinStar or Pletcher have something better lined up for the Met Mile?

Would make for a slam-bang day for WinStar and friends if they could pull off this and the Belmont.

Surely he goes in Met Mile or Easy Goer.  Or he "needs a rest". 
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holeinthewall

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Haven't been keeping up on post-Preakness doings.  Has anything been written about Audible perhaps trying the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day?  A one-turn mile against older horses.  3-year-olds actually have done well in this race over the years. Written under handicap conditions, so I would imagine Audible would get in somewhere around 110-112 pounds.

Or does WinStar or Pletcher have something better lined up for the Met Mile?

Would make for a slam-bang day for WinStar and friends if they could pull off this and the Belmont.


Some of you might remember Holy Bull smoking the field as a 3 year old.
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userpick


Haven't been keeping up on post-Preakness doings.  Has anything been written about Audible perhaps trying the Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day?  A one-turn mile against older horses.  3-year-olds actually have done well in this race over the years. Written under handicap conditions, so I would imagine Audible would get in somewhere around 110-112 pounds.

Or does WinStar or Pletcher have something better lined up for the Met Mile?

Would make for a slam-bang day for WinStar and friends if they could pull off this and the Belmont. 

Not sure what counts as recent, but itís been 22 years since a 3 year old has won that race. And with Mind Your Biscuits and City of Light running in it, Audible is nothing more than a number. Thatís a move Ron Moquett or Mick Ruis would make. I doubt thatís a move Todd Pletcher makes.
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heavylifting

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Not sure what counts as recent, but itís been 22 years since a 3 year old has won that race.
Ouch!! Has it been that long? Looked it up and, dang, 1996, Honour and Glory. Was Pletcher still with D. Wayne then? If so, at least he would have that to draw upon for reference.

FWIW, Honour and Glory was the 4th 3-year-old in a 10-year span to win this race when he did so, the others being Gulch (1987), Dixie Brass (1992) and Holy Bull (1994).
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cbhawg03


Not sure what counts as recent, but itís been 22 years since a 3 year old has won that race. And with Mind Your Biscuits and City of Light running in it, Audible is nothing more than a number. Thatís a move Ron Moquett or Mick Ruis would make. I doubt thatís a move Todd Pletcher makes.

lol.  such a hater of the OP stable trainer

HogFanInBryant



Some of you might remember Holy Bull smoking the field as a 3 year old.

If you go back and look at the field Holy Bull beat in the Met Mile...it was one of the more impressive races ever ran by a 3 year old against older horses in my opinion!
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holeinthewall

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Quote
Mind Your Biscuits and City of Light

I want to thank Mind Your Biscuits for helping that nice P3 and P4 payout in Dubai.  But lots of times those horses don't come back and run their usual race 1st time back in the US.

I'll be honest I played couple small tickets on the Derby and Preakness because of the rain and I may not bet again until Breeders Cup day.  I have really gotten out of the day to day betting I use to do. 

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userpick


It appears City of Light will run this weekend instead. Biscuits will crush the Met Mile. Sorry to derail the thread. Back to the Belmont!
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cbhawg03


Vino Rosso (John Velazquez up) and Noble Indy (Javier Castellano up) worked four furlongs in 47.15 seconds (on my watch) Friday morning over the Belmont Park main track.

Vino Rosso, ninth in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, is considered a definite starter for the Belmont Stakes while Noble Indy, 17th in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Louisiana Derby, has not been ruled out of consideration for the race, according to part-owner Mike Repole.

Meanwhile, Audible, whom trainer Todd Pletcher said Monday would also work Friday, did not work, a further indication that a start in the Belmont Stakes is unlikely.

Audible, third to Justify in the Kentucky Derby, has the same ownership group as Justify and would likely be deemed the biggest threat to Justifyís Triple Crown bid in the June 9 Belmont Stakes.

Vino Rosso and Noble Indy came on the track shortly after the track re-opened following the 8:15-8:45 renovation break. The backed up to the seven-furlong pole before turning around and galloping before getting into the work.

Vino Rosso, on the outside, started about three-quarters of a length behind Noble Indy but the two were quickly on even terms and I had their first quarter in 23.37 seconds. They were in the two and three path in the stretch, their strides synchronized coming to the wire in a final quarter of 23.78 seconds. I had them galloping out five furlongs in 1:00.15.

Also, Mind Your Biscuits worked five furlongs in 59.66 seconds under Joel Rosario, getting his final quarter in 23.13 seconds. As usual, he was kept several paths off the rail.

Mind Your Biscuits is pointing to the Grade 1 Met Mile.



There ya go.  Audible will be tabbed as "needed a rest"
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HogFanInBryant


Vino Rosso (John Velazquez up) and Noble Indy (Javier Castellano up) worked four furlongs in 47.15 seconds (on my watch) Friday morning over the Belmont Park main track.

Vino Rosso, ninth in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, is considered a definite starter for the Belmont Stakes while Noble Indy, 17th in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Louisiana Derby, has not been ruled out of consideration for the race, according to part-owner Mike Repole.

Meanwhile, Audible, whom trainer Todd Pletcher said Monday would also work Friday, did not work, a further indication that a start in the Belmont Stakes is unlikely.

Audible, third to Justify in the Kentucky Derby, has the same ownership group as Justify and would likely be deemed the biggest threat to Justifyís Triple Crown bid in the June 9 Belmont Stakes.

Vino Rosso and Noble Indy came on the track shortly after the track re-opened following the 8:15-8:45 renovation break. The backed up to the seven-furlong pole before turning around and galloping before getting into the work.

Vino Rosso, on the outside, started about three-quarters of a length behind Noble Indy but the two were quickly on even terms and I had their first quarter in 23.37 seconds. They were in the two and three path in the stretch, their strides synchronized coming to the wire in a final quarter of 23.78 seconds. I had them galloping out five furlongs in 1:00.15.

Also, Mind Your Biscuits worked five furlongs in 59.66 seconds under Joel Rosario, getting his final quarter in 23.13 seconds. As usual, he was kept several paths off the rail.

Mind Your Biscuits is pointing to the Grade 1 Met Mile.



There ya go.  Audible will be tabbed as "needed a rest"

Pletcher has not said for sure Audible is not running because he "lacked energy" since his race in the KD...umm yeah ok sure!  LOL
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userpick


I wish audible would run. Heíll take money.
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cbhawg03


I wish audible would run. Heíll take money.

and he will win.  that is the problem
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userpick


and he will win.  that is the problem

He does have a better chance of winning the Belmont than the Met Mile, but thatís not saying much. <5% of winning either
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cbhawg03


He does have a better chance of winning the Belmont than the Met Mile, but thatís not saying much. <5% of winning either

You must be confusing Audible and Bolt díOro lol
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ghostzapper

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The bet in this race is whether you think Justify is regressing or whether the Preakness was an aberration.  If the former, anyone can win.  If the latter, it wonít be close.  Itís a 50/50 proposition to me because I think Baffert would run him even if he did not think he was primed. 
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HogFanInBryant


If you are a Justify nay-sayer (I was before the KD)...how can you think any horse will get near him on a dry track after watching what took place this morning at CD?  I mean...come on y'all!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHGT8vC5Bcs
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ghostzapper

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4f in 46.90

ghostzapper

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If he wins, and I hope he does, I hope he obliterates APís time. 

HogFanInBryant


If he wins, and I hope he does, I hope he obliterates APís time. 

Frosted had a lot to do with AP's impressive time.  I think Victor pushed on him pretty hard right before they hit the stretch...and unlike Real Quiet and Smarty Jones...he hit that "Triple Crown Winner" gear that hopefully Justify will have too!
I still get nauseated watching Smarty get caught for the record...I try not to watch it anymore but it's like driving by a bad car accident.  You don't want to look, but you can't help it?
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HogFanInBryant


4f in 46.90

He did it so easy too...I think Bob would have been happy if he had gone in 48 flat honestly.  We may see something really special in NY!
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kingoftherapids


i think he wins by 4+

HogFanInBryant


If Justify does get beat...who beats him?
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oldman1015


If Justify does get beat...who beats him?
Not Audible
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jdelo77


Hoffburg ? Heís fresh ...
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ghostzapper

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Work plus Baffert exuding confidence have me believing Justify runs an improved race in Belmont.  Isnít he going to have the lead to himself in this race? That combination, and the lack of any all star talent behind him make me think he wins. 
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ghostzapper

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Of course there would be a 50% chance of rain when I decide to go.
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cbhawg03


Work plus Baffert exuding confidence have me believing Justify runs an improved race in Belmont.  Isnít he going to have the lead to himself in this race? That combination, and the lack of any all star talent behind him make me think he wins.

Think Baffert has been quoted that the horse owned by Mary Gary West will be sent so Justify has a target. 
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ghostzapper

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Think Baffert has been quoted that the horse owned by Mary Gary West will be sent so Justify has a target.

One of the things that I have concerns about with Justify is the ability to rate off the pace.  I know he did it in some earlier races, but he was hellbent for leather in the Derby, and basically did the same thing in the Preakness though at a slower pace than the Derby.  The way Smith has ridden him recently, and given that he can run fast early on, I don't see him laying much off of the pace. 
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cbhawg03


One of the things that I have concerns about with Justify is the ability to rate off the pace.  I know he did it in some earlier races, but he was hellbent for leather in the Derby, and basically did the same thing in the Preakness though at a slower pace than the Derby.  The way Smith has ridden him recently, and given that he can run fast early on, I don't see him laying much off of the pace.

Donít disagree, just saying what Baffert has said. 

I think Derby he was sent for a reason though. 

Preakness lacked pace so he was always going to be on the lead. 
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Iwastherein1969

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We don't have trainers these days like Woodrow 'Cefis' Stephens. The year, 1982. The horse, the majestic son of Mr. Prospector named Conquistador Cielo. Ol' Cefis snookered them all when he ran CC in the Met Mile beating older horses by 8 or so (breaking Stop The Music's record) and then wheeled the dark bay or brown son of Mr. Prospector back in 6 days to run in the Belmont. People, the talking heads, said Woody had finally lost his mind when they saw CC in the overnights entered in the Belmont. Well, not so fast my friend.  No need to continue the history lesson. Let's just say that Cefis Stephens had the last laugh by 14 lengths in the Belmont. It was a beautiful thing to watch and an even more beautiful trick that "Belmont Woody" pulled on everyone. That was the first time I had ever bet a grand on a horse to win. I got 5/2 on CC and the race was over at the 1/2 mile pole.

ghostzapper

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We don't have trainers these days like Woodrow 'Cefis' Stephens. The year, 1982. The horse, the majestic son of Mr. Prospector named Conquistador Cielo. Ol' Cefis snookered them all when he ran CC in the Met Mile beating older horses by 8 or so (breaking Stop The Music's record) and then wheeled the dark bay or brown son of Mr. Prospector back in 6 days to run in the Belmont. People, the talking heads, said Woody had finally lost his mind when they saw CC in the overnights entered in the Belmont. Well, not so fast my friend.  No need to continue the history lesson. Let's just say that Cefis Stephens had the last laugh by 14 lengths in the Belmont. It was a beautiful thing to watch and an even more beautiful trick that "Belmont Woody" pulled on everyone. That was the first time I had ever bet a grand on a horse to win. I got 5/2 on CC and the race was over at the 1/2 mile pole.

5 Belmonts in a row may be the most underappreciated record in sports.  Only record better at that track is Secretariatís Belmont winning time. 
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ghostzapper

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If Justify has a threat, it is Asmussenís horse.
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