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Author Topic: Road to the Kentucky Derby  (Read 3542 times)

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HogFanInBryant

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #100 on: April 15, 2018, 07:19:37 pm »

One other thing-FOR THE RECORD...if the KD totally falls apart I can see My Boy Jack pulling a Giacomo!
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jdelo77

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #101 on: April 15, 2018, 07:35:06 pm »

if magnum moon and justify are on the lead and dueling with a hot pace , who closes like a freight train and nips one of them late ?
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #102 on: April 15, 2018, 07:44:53 pm »

One other thing-FOR THE RECORD...if the KD totally falls apart I can see My Boy Jack pulling a Giacomo!

It will be a disappointment on the level of Giacomo if My Boy Jack wins.  One of the slowest Derbies of our lifetime.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #103 on: April 15, 2018, 07:45:26 pm »

if magnum moon and justify are on the lead and dueling with a hot pace , who closes like a freight train and nips one of them late ?

Mendelssohn.  Justify won’t duel.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #104 on: April 15, 2018, 08:00:00 pm »

It will be a disappointment on the level of Giacomo if My Boy Jack wins.  One of the slowest Derbies of our lifetime.

Agree 100% on the disappointment part, but I do think My Boy Jack may be the best one who could come flying at the end if all the talented speed and stalkers crawl home due to something suicidal...
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userpick

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #105 on: April 15, 2018, 08:16:43 pm »

I’m not sure if anyone, besides the Romans horse, actually needs the lead
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #106 on: April 15, 2018, 09:37:20 pm »

I’m not sure if anyone, besides the Romans horse, actually needs the lead

Agreed. 
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oldman1015

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #107 on: April 16, 2018, 09:13:14 am »

One other thing-FOR THE RECORD...if the KD totally falls apart I can see My Boy Jack pulling a Giacomo!
I think you are over thinking this. I don't see My Boy Jack winning the Derby in any fashion. But I've been wrong before. I need someone to tell me why Audible can't win.  I'm eliminating horses so I can make my pick in 3 weeks.
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holeinthewall

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #108 on: April 16, 2018, 09:49:13 am »

I will wait and see track conditions before I go picking which horses to play.  A sloppy track is always a possibility this time of year.
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kingoftherapids

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #109 on: April 16, 2018, 10:18:03 am »

for 24 bucks total i played these exactas in the 4th futures pool. not really sure why. just had a voucher and said what the heck.

Justify and Mendelssohn over Bolt, combatant, free drop billy, good magic, justify, Mendelssohn, solomini

payouts with justify winning are  54, 719, 610, 81, 48, 186

payouts with mendelssohn winning are 107,860, 733, 132, 50, 359
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #110 on: April 16, 2018, 12:11:44 pm »

Don't we have virtually all Derby Preps other than Dubai and SA Derby coming in at about 96-99 BSF?   Which, of any of those winners, do you see sitting on big move forward? 
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The Hogfather

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #111 on: April 16, 2018, 01:33:52 pm »

Don't we have virtually all Derby Preps other than Dubai and SA Derby coming in at about 96-99 BSF?   Which, of any of those winners, do you see sitting on big move forward? 

Tell me your position on BSF.  It seems like you are basically implying BSF are everything.  Is that the case?  Do you think there are some tracks, in general, that get inflated numbers on average?
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cbhawg03

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #112 on: April 16, 2018, 01:50:16 pm »

Tell me your position on BSF.  It seems like you are basically implying BSF are everything.  Is that the case?  Do you think there are some tracks, in general, that get inflated numbers on average?

Please do not do this to us again....
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The Hogfather

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #113 on: April 16, 2018, 01:52:28 pm »

Please do not do this to us again....

Oh, sorry.  Does a question like this cause issues around here?
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cbhawg03

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #114 on: April 16, 2018, 01:58:08 pm »

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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #115 on: April 16, 2018, 02:06:42 pm »

Oh, sorry.  Does a question like this cause issues around here?

Only if you actually want to discuss objective measures of horses' performances.  I like them, think they are the best measure we have of how fast a horse went around a track, and are obviously subject to interpretation and application in future races. 
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The Hogfather

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #116 on: April 16, 2018, 02:50:09 pm »

Only if you actually want to discuss objective measures of horses' performances.  I like them, think they are the best measure we have of how fast a horse went around a track, and are obviously subject to interpretation and application in future races. 

They seem good for showing how fast horses raced on a particular day at a particular track for a particular distance.  Not sure how accurate they are for comparing a 3-year-old racing 6 horses at Santa Anita on a dry track to a 3-year-old racing 13 horses at Keenland on a slow, drying track to a 3-year-old at Oaklawn racing 12 horses on a deep track, etc. to determine which horse will be the fastest or the best at Churchill on the 1st Saturday in May.  Just my opinion.
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cbhawg03

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #117 on: April 16, 2018, 03:38:49 pm »

They seem good for showing how fast horses raced on a particular day at a particular track for a particular distance.  Not sure how accurate they are for comparing a 3-year-old racing 6 horses at Santa Anita on a dry track to a 3-year-old racing 13 horses at Keenland on a slow, drying track to a 3-year-old at Oaklawn racing 12 horses on a deep track, etc. to determine which horse will be the fastest or the best at Churchill on the 1st Saturday in May.  Just my opinion.

oh goodness, you did it.....

Should have just enjoyed the linked thread, but I get it, you don't know me and I don't know you so why take my word....But the torture you just subjected us all to is really unfair..
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The Hogfather

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #118 on: April 16, 2018, 03:59:28 pm »

oh goodness, you did it.....

Should have just enjoyed the linked thread, but I get it, you don't know me and I don't know you so why take my word....But the torture you just subjected us all to is really unfair..

I actually missed your next reply and only saw his.  Reading that thread brings up other questions/concerns I have regarding BSF.  However, I don't want to get into all of that because it is clear nobody is going to change his mind and he's not ever going to convince me they are as useful as he thinks they are.
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cbhawg03

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #119 on: April 16, 2018, 04:07:57 pm »

I actually missed your next reply and only saw his.  Reading that thread brings up other questions/concerns I have regarding BSF.  However, I don't want to get into all of that because it is clear nobody is going to change his mind and he's not ever going to convince me they are as useful as he thinks they are.

oh goodness.  this won't help the cause. 

My problem is this when it comes to BSF:  take Songbird for instance, she kept running basically the same BSF, but yet was she really running that fast?  Did everyone know that something was wrong?  YES, well except one person.  And what happened?  She was retired. 

Arrogate:  He kept running basically the same figures as well but yet he wasn't the same horse.  He was losing ground to front runners and eventually he was trounced by Gun Runner just like I said he would be.  Again, every one, except one person could tell something was missing with Arrogate yet he was going to rebound with this big effort in the BCC, the same BCC that he still has yet to finish, the same BCC that GR is so far in front that Arrogate can't even see him anymore. 

I could go on, but between what you just said and what I said, we will probably get bant from this joint for a while
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #120 on: April 16, 2018, 05:19:26 pm »

oh goodness.  this won't help the cause. 

My problem is this when it comes to BSF:  take Songbird for instance, she kept running basically the same BSF, but yet was she really running that fast?  Did everyone know that something was wrong?  YES, well except one person.  And what happened?  She was retired. 

Arrogate:  He kept running basically the same figures as well but yet he wasn't the same horse.  He was losing ground to front runners and eventually he was trounced by Gun Runner just like I said he would be.  Again, every one, except one person could tell something was missing with Arrogate yet he was going to rebound with this big effort in the BCC, the same BCC that he still has yet to finish, the same BCC that GR is so far in front that Arrogate can't even see him anymore. 

I could go on, but between what you just said and what I said, we will probably get bant from this joint for a while

So much wrong in this response.  Let’s start a BSF thread and that way we don’t derail the thread.
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holeinthewall

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #121 on: April 17, 2018, 09:55:48 am »

To me the BSF are a guage of how the horse has run in the past.  More importantly is have any of these horses ever run at Churchill?   Probably not so the track surface is an unknowm. Some horses will not like it and some will take to it.

Plus you never know how the horse feels that day.  I liken it to when I use to run.  Some days I could get on the treadmill set it at my pace and run 4 miles straight.  other days with the same routine the first mile would kill me and I slow down and walk for a minute and then resume.  So to me the biggest variable is exactly how does that horse feel that day mentally and physically.  And that we can't get an answer to.
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kingoftherapids

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #122 on: April 17, 2018, 10:37:32 am »

The horses with a run under the twinspires are: Enticed, Flameaway, Quip, Bravazo, Promises fulfilled, free drop billy, lone sailer, combatant, sporting chance, dream baby dream, Reride.

dream baby dream, reride, combatant, free drop billy, promises fulfilled, bravazo, quip, and enticed all have been in the winner's circle at CD.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #123 on: April 17, 2018, 10:40:31 am »

Beyer Speed Figs are a lazy way to handicap.  You will also go broke if you let them play more than 25% towards your decision making process.  My opinion...along with $1.00 can get you a double cheeseburger from Burger King.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #124 on: April 17, 2018, 02:51:17 pm »

Beyer Speed Figs are a lazy way to handicap.  You will also go broke if you let them play more than 25% towards your decision making process.  My opinion...along with $1.00 can get you a double cheeseburger from Burger King.

This is the comment that I typically encounter about BSFs that I think reflects misconception about them.

Let's say for a minute that you could reliably take the final times of races at all tracks and consider them equal.   A 1:10 6f race at OP would be the same as a 1:10 at Bel or any other track.  How important would final times be in your handicapping in that event?  I am guessing, if you had a race with horses who had a number of pps on their form, and one or two consistently ran faster races by two seconds, you would pick one of them as the likely winner of the race.   Of course you would look for things like trouble lines or track biases or maybe even huge weight adjustments to see if another horse's final times might be better than the actual time, but absent some glaring explanation like that, the final time would weight heavily in your decision. 

I realize few races play out with such a clear cut delineation of ability that no other handicapping angle is needed.  But I don't think you can start any handicapping without having some sense of how fast a horse has actually gone around the track in his prior races, and Beyer figs express that in apples-to-apples comparative form better than anything else I have seen.  They can be useful in defining what horses have no chance to win a race.  The par times are helpful in allowing you to project a horse that might reach them that has never run them and to throw out horses who have run enough races and have never achieved the par.  They can also allow you to project what a horse might run as a 4 year old in a first race back off a 3 year old campaign.  These are particularly helpful pieces of info when you are betting things like Pick 5s and 6s. 

I would never discount trip, trainer, weight change, in trying to project a winner.  I would never bet the highest Beyer fig last race in an upcoming race simply on that number, and I don't know any successful gambler who would do that.  However, it might be my ultimate rationalization for selecting the horse if there is no reason to discount him or believe he cannot duplicate the number again. 

I hit a $129,000 pick 5 at Bel last year that was heavily centered on Beyers.  My last leg was won by a 29-1 shot who had run the Beyer par in the past, had several bad races on his form, but got loose on the lead and wired the field.  My single was a 10-1 shot that was a 4 year old making his first start of the year.  He was trained by a good layoff trainer and had run Beyers in the mid-70s as a 3 year old.  Those project nicely into 80s as a 4 year old, and none of the other oft-race 4 year olds in the race had topped 79.  He won by 5.  I have had other big hits, and I cannot conceive that I would have been able to win any of them without Beyers. 
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OaklawnCapper

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #125 on: April 17, 2018, 03:11:20 pm »

http://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=660035.0

I started a thread for those that want to discuss BSF.  Let's keep this one on the Kentucky Derby.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #126 on: April 17, 2018, 03:58:01 pm »

Thanks
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ghostzapper

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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #128 on: April 18, 2018, 07:36:43 pm »

Love the Racing Onion
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #129 on: April 20, 2018, 09:06:50 pm »

Dick Jerardi at drf.com:

This I know for certain after the final round of American Kentucky Derby preps: Santa Anita Derby winner Justify is at least five lengths faster than the winners of the other races.

If this was Big Brown or California Chrome’s year, I would pronounce Justify a cinch. However, the other final prep winners are pretty consistent. Not super fast, but consistent. And UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn is an absolute cause for concern.

Going back to the Louisiana Derby, I have analyzed seven final Derby preps from a Beyer-figure standpoint, including that amazing performance in Dubai.

Justify earned a 107 in the Santa Anita Derby. Yes, Justify had a tactical advantage, but I looked at his performance this way: a colt making his third lifetime start ran away from three-time graded stakes winner Bolt d’Oro, easily the most accomplished colt in this crop. Justify has now posted a 104, 101 and 107 series heading for Kentucky. Many will be looking for reasons to beat Justify. I won’t be among them.

:: Kentucky Derby advance PPs are now available!

Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby at Meydan by 18 3/4 lengths. There was no form to help with that race specifically, but there was enough American dirt form in the World Cup to make a UAE Derby Beyer and be confident in its accuracy. We gave the race a 106.

The UAE Derby was 1 3/16 miles, and the World Cup was 1 1/4 miles. We have charts that explain the relationship between times at those distances.

“In the World Cup, the horses that ran 2-3-4-5 were all U.S. horses and we knew what their figures were like,’’ Andrew Beyer said.

Thunder Snow won it, followed by West Coast, Mubtaahij, Pavel, and Forever Unbridled.

“Clearly, West Coast did not run his best race to be beaten so soundly,’’ Beyer said. “Mubtaahij, Pavel, and Forever Unbridled finished pretty much in a pack and their figures were all between 99 and 102. This was a race we could project. You could look to those three horses and know within a point or two what they were expected to run. Based on them, we came up with a figure for the winner. We could feel pretty confident Thunder Snow’s winning figure was a 111.’’

The World Cup time was then compared to the UAE Derby’s time. Beyer team member Randy Moss and Beyer himself looked at the data independently and came to the same conclusion on the UAE Derby. Thunder Snow’s time was going to equate to five points faster than Mendelssohn’s. Thus, the 106.

``We would never have published this figure if we were shaky about it,’’ Beyer said.

Is there a chance the UAE Derby was a one off? Yes. Mendelssohn had never done anything close to that before. The colt got an 86 in his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf win. It’s also possible this colt was just waiting to get on a dirt track. If he was trained by somebody other than Aidan O’Brien, I would still be skeptical. But you know O’Brien has thought this through and has a plan. Mendelssohn is a definite contender.

Audible, with two 99 Beyers in 2018, dominated the Holy Bull by running near the pace and was visually dazzling when he came from far back to win the Florida Derby, so he may have another Beyer jump in him. I think this colt is better at this stage than 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming. But Always Dreaming ran against a much weaker group.

Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon is unbeaten in four starts. None of the races has been close. He has posted a 95, 88, 97, 98 series, with the best Beyer coming in the Arkansas Derby. I love how this colt runs and really appreciate how competitive he is. I doubt, however, that he is ready for another forward Beyer move. I think we know Magnum Moon’s quality and his limitations.

Vino Rosso got a 98 in his Wood Memorial win after an 80, 70, 90, 85 series. It is definitely possible this was a significant 3-year-old move forward that we often see in early spring. If the colt has just improved that much, it makes him a contender to be part of the superfecta.

Good Magic got a 95 in his Blue Grass win. I was unimpressed. I think he peaked with that 100 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he ran like a very serious horse. His other three races produced Beyers of 82, 89 and 89. And that fire he showed at Del Mar has been absent in his two 2018 races. When he made his move in the Blue Grass, I thought Good Magic was going to run away from the field. Did not happen and I don’t think he is going to go any better in the Derby.

Noble Indy got a 95 in his Louisiana Derby win which followed a 77, 84 and 91 series. So the colt’s Beyers keep rising, but he would have to make another significant jump at Churchill just to hit the board.

I liked my 40-1 on Justify when the bet was made in late February. I obviously like it now that Justify is going to be the Derby favorite. I would like it even more if Mendelssohn would miss his flight to Kentucky.
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The Hogfather

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #130 on: April 20, 2018, 10:21:51 pm »

Dick Jerardi at drf.com:

This I know for certain after the final round of American Kentucky Derby preps: Santa Anita Derby winner Justify is at least five lengths faster than the winners of the other races.

If this was Big Brown or California Chrome’s year, I would pronounce Justify a cinch. However, the other final prep winners are pretty consistent. Not super fast, but consistent. And UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn is an absolute cause for concern.

Going back to the Louisiana Derby, I have analyzed seven final Derby preps from a Beyer-figure standpoint, including that amazing performance in Dubai.

Justify earned a 107 in the Santa Anita Derby. Yes, Justify had a tactical advantage, but I looked at his performance this way: a colt making his third lifetime start ran away from three-time graded stakes winner Bolt d’Oro, easily the most accomplished colt in this crop. Justify has now posted a 104, 101 and 107 series heading for Kentucky. Many will be looking for reasons to beat Justify. I won’t be among them.

:: Kentucky Derby advance PPs are now available!

Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby at Meydan by 18 3/4 lengths. There was no form to help with that race specifically, but there was enough American dirt form in the World Cup to make a UAE Derby Beyer and be confident in its accuracy. We gave the race a 106.

The UAE Derby was 1 3/16 miles, and the World Cup was 1 1/4 miles. We have charts that explain the relationship between times at those distances.

“In the World Cup, the horses that ran 2-3-4-5 were all U.S. horses and we knew what their figures were like,’’ Andrew Beyer said.

Thunder Snow won it, followed by West Coast, Mubtaahij, Pavel, and Forever Unbridled.

“Clearly, West Coast did not run his best race to be beaten so soundly,’’ Beyer said. “Mubtaahij, Pavel, and Forever Unbridled finished pretty much in a pack and their figures were all between 99 and 102. This was a race we could project. You could look to those three horses and know within a point or two what they were expected to run. Based on them, we came up with a figure for the winner. We could feel pretty confident Thunder Snow’s winning figure was a 111.’’

The World Cup time was then compared to the UAE Derby’s time. Beyer team member Randy Moss and Beyer himself looked at the data independently and came to the same conclusion on the UAE Derby. Thunder Snow’s time was going to equate to five points faster than Mendelssohn’s. Thus, the 106.

``We would never have published this figure if we were shaky about it,’’ Beyer said.

Is there a chance the UAE Derby was a one off? Yes. Mendelssohn had never done anything close to that before. The colt got an 86 in his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf win. It’s also possible this colt was just waiting to get on a dirt track. If he was trained by somebody other than Aidan O’Brien, I would still be skeptical. But you know O’Brien has thought this through and has a plan. Mendelssohn is a definite contender.

Audible, with two 99 Beyers in 2018, dominated the Holy Bull by running near the pace and was visually dazzling when he came from far back to win the Florida Derby, so he may have another Beyer jump in him. I think this colt is better at this stage than 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming. But Always Dreaming ran against a much weaker group.

Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon is unbeaten in four starts. None of the races has been close. He has posted a 95, 88, 97, 98 series, with the best Beyer coming in the Arkansas Derby. I love how this colt runs and really appreciate how competitive he is. I doubt, however, that he is ready for another forward Beyer move. I think we know Magnum Moon’s quality and his limitations.

Vino Rosso got a 98 in his Wood Memorial win after an 80, 70, 90, 85 series. It is definitely possible this was a significant 3-year-old move forward that we often see in early spring. If the colt has just improved that much, it makes him a contender to be part of the superfecta.

Good Magic got a 95 in his Blue Grass win. I was unimpressed. I think he peaked with that 100 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he ran like a very serious horse. His other three races produced Beyers of 82, 89 and 89. And that fire he showed at Del Mar has been absent in his two 2018 races. When he made his move in the Blue Grass, I thought Good Magic was going to run away from the field. Did not happen and I don’t think he is going to go any better in the Derby.

Noble Indy got a 95 in his Louisiana Derby win which followed a 77, 84 and 91 series. So the colt’s Beyers keep rising, but he would have to make another significant jump at Churchill just to hit the board.

I liked my 40-1 on Justify when the bet was made in late February. I obviously like it now that Justify is going to be the Derby favorite. I would like it even more if Mendelssohn would miss his flight to Kentucky.

Sounds like a Beyer Bitch with a chance to hit a future wager.

You guys said almost the exact same things.  Sonds a bit cultish.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #131 on: April 21, 2018, 06:13:53 pm »

I took your anti-Beyer comment to the Beyer thread.  Any counter to his prep race conclusions other than your distaste for Beyers?
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The Hogfather

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #132 on: April 21, 2018, 08:52:47 pm »

I took your anti-Beyer comment to the Beyer thread.  Any counter to his prep race conclusions other than your distaste for Beyers?

Well, since all of his conclusions are drawn from Beyer figures, I have a lot of thoughts about the validity/worth of his conclusions.
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The Hogfather

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #133 on: April 21, 2018, 08:53:02 pm »

I took your anti-Beyer comment to the Beyer thread.  Any counter to his prep race conclusions other than your distaste for Beyers?

Beard = Allen
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userpick

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #134 on: April 21, 2018, 10:29:05 pm »

Justify might be a freak, but from a thorograph perspective, it’s a very level playing field if you believe Mendelssohn bounces. He ran a -4.5 in Dubai which is insane, especially for a 3 year old. I’ve never been a huge believer in foreign figures, but it was still a very fast race. He has to bounce some as I don’t believe it’s possible to replicate a -4.5 but how much can he bounce and still win? There’s a lot of lightly raced horses in the 0 to -1 Range. I think it could be a great race.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #135 on: April 22, 2018, 07:19:17 am »

Well, since all of his conclusions are drawn from Beyer figures, I have a lot of thoughts about the validity/worth of his conclusions.

And what are your reference points and conclusions? 
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #136 on: April 22, 2018, 07:21:43 am »

Justify might be a freak, but from a thorograph perspective, it’s a very level playing field if you believe Mendelssohn bounces. He ran a -4.5 in Dubai which is insane, especially for a 3 year old. I’ve never been a huge believer in foreign figures, but it was still a very fast race. He has to bounce some as I don’t believe it’s possible to replicate a -4.5 but how much can he bounce and still win? There’s a lot of lightly raced horses in the 0 to -1 Range. I think it could be a great race.

What did Justify get?  I thought the Beyer was a little low for Mendelssohn because it gave Asmussen’s horse a regressive number but I understand the rationale for the variant.
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userpick

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #137 on: April 22, 2018, 09:14:46 am »

What did Justify get?  I thought the Beyer was a little low for Mendelssohn because it gave Asmussen’s horse a regressive number but I understand the rationale for the variant.

Justify got a -1 in the SA derby
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jdelo77

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #138 on: April 22, 2018, 07:21:02 pm »

Are we seriously thinking a horse that won the UAE derby has a shot ?
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userpick

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #139 on: April 22, 2018, 07:25:39 pm »

Are we seriously thinking a horse that won the UAE derby has a shot ?

I think there are reasons to try and beat him but I will definitely be using him quite a bit on my own pick 6 tickets
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jdelo77

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #140 on: April 22, 2018, 07:30:52 pm »

I mean I get it , how he won and the margin he won by but , has a horse that won that race ever even sniffed the top three in derby ?
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #141 on: April 22, 2018, 07:39:30 pm »

The rail and early-speed bias at Meydan (on the dirt course) was off the charts.  Including the UAE Derby, 16 of the last 17 races on the dirt track were done in wire to wire fashion from horses on the inside.  This is very long but worth a listen if you skip around:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O48Tx5f4HpA
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The Hogfather

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #142 on: April 22, 2018, 08:10:06 pm »

Are we seriously thinking a horse that won the UAE derby has a shot ?

No
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #143 on: April 22, 2018, 08:58:58 pm »

The rail and early-speed bias at Meydan (on the dirt course) was off the charts.  Including the UAE Derby, 16 of the last 17 races on the dirt track were done in wire to wire fashion from horses on the inside.  This is very long but worth a listen if you skip around:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O48Tx5f4HpA

Excellent points but I didn’t see a race in which a horse who was a longshot won simply by going to the lead.  That is typically the proof of an insurmountable inside bias. 
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #144 on: April 22, 2018, 09:02:36 pm »

Excellent points but I didn’t see a race in which a horse who was a longshot won simply by going to the lead.  That is typically the proof of an insurmountable inside bias. 

Just passing on some pretty good info all things considered.  As you can tell though, he can't seem to get past the fact that a 3 year old put up a -4.5 so that speaks for itself!
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #145 on: April 22, 2018, 09:03:50 pm »

I mean I get it , how he won and the margin he won by but , has a horse that won that race ever even sniffed the top three in derby ?

No, but neither had a horse from Sunland won the Derby and that happened.  The difference here is (a) this horse is demonstrably fast, (b) he is bred to the gills to win a race like the Derby, (c) he is owned and trained by connections that rival any in the US and (d) he has already come to the US and beaten top flight competition.  Is that conclusive proof he wins?  No.  But dismissing him simply because of the race he exits seems illogical to me.
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ghostzapper

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Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #146 on: April 22, 2018, 09:06:42 pm »

Just passing on some pretty good info all things considered.  As you can tell though, he can't seem to get past the fact that a 3 year old put up a -4.5 so that speaks for itself!

I lived LaD during the late 80s and early 90s, so I know an inherent speed bias. (Think Free Spirit Joy’s Super Derby win over Best Paal) It may exist at Meydan, and that would be a great reason to throw him out.
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #147 on: April 22, 2018, 09:31:06 pm »

I lived LaD during the late 80s and early 90s, so I know an inherent speed bias. (Think Free Spirit Joy’s Super Derby win over Best Paal) It may exist at Meydan, and that would be a great reason to throw him out.

There was this rail-bird that used to be at Oaklawn every day back in the mid 90's.  I mean he went every single day!  He had a wormy mustache and a mullet...and no matter if it was 35 degrees or 85 degrees he wore a jacket that read "Oaklawn Lanes" on the back of it.  He used to say that the "powers that be" that groomed the track at Oaklawn would "board up the rail" once a week and you just had to know enough people on the inside to figure out what day it would be.  I also remember going over during the Summer months for simulcast and hearing him yell real loud that they had the rail "boarded up" at Louisiana Downs.  I always wondered if he was talking smack, or knew what he was talking about? 
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HogFanInBryant

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #148 on: April 22, 2018, 09:37:40 pm »

By the way, I wasn't trying to start a new thread for the heck of it asking for everyone's KD top 3.  I just wanted to have something easy to follow since this thread is almost to it's 4th page.
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cbhawg03

Re: Road to the Kentucky Derby
« Reply #149 on: April 23, 2018, 10:56:08 am »

Quip out and Gronk may be out as well.  Combatant in line to get in.
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