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Author Topic: Bill Connelly/SB Nation: 2018 college football returning production rankings  (Read 1664 times)

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MuskogeeHogFan

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This is an interesting way to preview the football season. Returning experience is always important but so is returning production on both sides of the ball. Not just the number of snaps played but what was actually done with that playing time. In all fairness, this article was posted 1/31/18 so there have probably been some minor changes among some of the teams listed. And of course, some of these teams have new HC's/OC's/DC's who bring with them changes in scheme, but they still need players who have playing experience and generated production in the past, regardless of the scheme's that they participated in previously. Returning experienced players who have contributed production is never a bad thing. You have to build from the foundation of the players that you have right now.

How returning production in four offensive stats correlates with changes in Offensive S&P+ ratings:

Returning experience on the line doesn’t have nearly the statistical impact that we think it will. But with more data in the bank, we can see there’s a little correlation.

The higher the number, the more likely returning production in these areas is to coincide with strong offense:

    Receiving yards correlation: 0.322
    Passing yards correlation: 0.228
    Rushing yards correlation: 0.176
    Offensive line starts correlation: 0.088

The conclusion remains: Continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot, and continuity in the run game doesn’t have as strong an impact.
Correlation between defensive stats and changes in Defensive S&P+:

On defense, where returning production appears to matter more in general, the correlations are both stronger and more diverse. Since teams use different numbers of defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs, I look at both unit-specific categories and those for defense as a whole.

    Overall passes defensed correlation: 0.381
    Overall tackles correlation: 0.366
    Defensive back passes defensed correlation: 0.340
    Defensive back tackles correlation: 0.336
    Defensive back tackles for loss correlation: 0.303
    Overall tackles for loss correlation: 0.295
    Linebacker tackles for loss correlation: 0.206
    Linebacker tackles correlation: 0.192
    Defensive line sacks correlation: 0.126

The main takeaways are similar to last year: Disruption and continuity in the secondary are key. And the ability to get hands on passes is harder to replicate than any other.

So what does this mean for 2018? As with last year, I used categories like the ones above, weighted for largest effect — so returning quarterbacks, receivers, and defensive backs carry more heft — to create numbers for offense and defense.


SEC Returning Off and Def Production and National Rank                  

School   OFF   Rank   DEF   Rank   AVG   Rank
MSU      82%    19    80%    22     81%     8
FLA       77%    34    74%    36     76%    21
A&M      66%    70    78%    27     72%    35
ARK       76%    39    66%    58     71%    40
AUB       78%    31    61%    80     70%    47
KEN       47%   109    90%     7     69%    50
MIZ       70%    54    66%    55     68%    52
USC       84%   15     47%   119    66%    67
OLM       64%   78     62%    73     63%   77
GEO       66%   71     54%    96     60%   95
ALA       62%    81    53%   102     58%  103
VAN      58%    92     52%   105     55%  108
TEN      58%    93     48%   117     53%  113
LSU      39%   124     57%    90     48%  122
                  
ARK Div I OOC Opp   
School  OFF    Rank   DEF   Rank   AVG  Rank
CSU      27%   129    44%   122    35%  130
TUL      77%    35     66%    59    71%    38
UNT     78%     29     60%    83    69%    45

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/1/31/16950222/2018-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience
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Suidae Suis Scrofa

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Why do I have a feeling that Alabama won't end up ranked 103 at the end of the season?

-phil
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bphi11ips

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Good find, Muskogee.

Shows why Arkansas’s baseline should be 6-6 and why CSU angst is much ado about nothing.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Why do I have a feeling that Alabama won't end up ranked 103 at the end of the season?

-phil

For context, here is 2017 and how the SEC teams ended up.

School       Off       Rank      Def       Rank      Avg      Rank       W-L     2013-17 Avg Rec Rank
KEN          87%        12      76%        25        81%       7          7-6               31.6
USC          91%         7      72%        44        81%       8          9-4               21.0
GEO          77%        35      85%        5         81%       9         13-2               7.0
VAN          94%         3      68%        59        81%      10          5-7              48.0
MIZ          89%        10      54%       102       72%      31          7-6              38.2
FLA          81%        21      53%       103       67%      50          4-7              11.2
AUB          72%        43      60%        79       66%      56         10-4               8.4
MSU         72%        44      59%        85        65%      63          9-4              26.0
ALA          64%        61      59%        84        62%      73         13-1               1.0
ARK          55%        91      58%        89        57%      90          4-8              24.8
A&M         39%       109      64%        67        52%     107         7-6              11.2
TEN          42%       106      61%       78        51%      109         4-8              13.4
OLM          37%       115      63%       71        50%      110         6-6              15.2
LSU          59%        80       40%       119      50%       111        9-4                4.4

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/1/31/14451014/2017-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience-oregon-tcu-texas
« Last Edit: June 10, 2018, 07:06:42 am by MuskogeeHogFan »
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Good find, Muskogee.

Shows why Arkansas’s baseline should be 6-6 and why CSU angst is much ado about nothing.

I think the interesting question here is, with this much returning production on both sides of the ball, what can new offensive and defensive coordinators and their schemes do with this experience? The change on offense is probably greater and requires more learning and polish to be executed properly, so the defense is going to have to figuratively "carry the ball" for this team for the first half of the season, maybe more. Now if the offense develops early and can put up in excess of 435 yds/gm and limit their T/O's and the Chavis' defense plays just average defense (which we haven't seen lately), then things may begin to look up sooner than many expect, including me.

This is a bigger coaching challenge for Morris than the one he had at Clemson and probably the most challenging of Chavis' career in the SEC. I hope it is fun to watch.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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For context, here is 2017 and how the SEC teams ended up.

School       Off       Rank      Def       Rank      Avg      Rank       W-L     2013-17 Avg Rec Rank
KEN          87%        12      76%        25        81%       7          7-6               31.6
USC          91%         7      72%        44        81%       8          9-4               21.0
GEO          77%        35      85%        5         81%       9         13-2               7.0
VAN          94%         3      68%        59        81%      10          5-7              48.0
MIZ          89%        10      54%       102       72%      31          7-6              38.2
FLA          81%        21      53%       103       67%      50          4-7              11.2
AUB          72%        43      60%        79       66%      56         10-4               8.4
MSU         72%        44      59%        85        65%      63          9-4              26.0
ALA          64%        61      59%        84        62%      73         13-1               1.0
ARK          55%        91      58%        89        57%      90          4-8              24.8
A&M         39%       109      64%        67        52%     107         7-6              11.2
TEN          42%       106      61%       78        51%      109         4-8              13.4
OLM          37%       115      63%       71        50%      110         6-6              15.2
LSU          59%        80       40%       119      50%       111        9-4                4.4

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/1/31/14451014/2017-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience-oregon-tcu-texas

I added the 2013-2017 average class ranking from 24/7 to the 2017 results so that we can see how a team like LSU who had the least returning production, can still win 9 games. If you have a lot of talent that is stacked pretty deep you can still have a lot of churn each year (NFL Draft) and still perform at a high level.
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Inhogswetrust

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Good find, Muskogee.

Shows why Arkansas’s baseline should be 6-6 and why CSU angst is much ado about nothing.

Agree except ANY one game a team wins sometimes when they have no business doing so. Therefore don’t discount CSU having a chance of winning. It might not be a big chance but they do have A chance. I agree though that angst is not in order.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Agree except ANY one game a team wins sometimes when they have no business doing so. Therefore don’t discount CSU having a chance of winning. It might not be a big chance but they do have A chance. I agree though that angst is not in order.

I agree, anything is always possible. However, if we allow a G-5 team that ranks #130 in returning team production in the country to beat us, even at their house, things are going to get HOT for Morris a lot sooner than maybe he might have expected. But to me, that's exactly why it isn't going to happen.
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Inhogswetrust

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I agree, anything is always possible. However, if we allow a G-5 team that ranks #130 in returning team production in the country to beat us, even at their house, things are going to get HOT for Morris a lot sooner than maybe he might have expected. But to me, that's exactly why it isn't going to happen.

Sure but coaches at new places are more apt to lose games they shouldn’t. Even Saban did so at Bama. One of those directional schools from Louisiana I think it was.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 04:11:16 pm by Inhogswetrust »
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HotlantaHog


I agree, anything is always possible. However, if we allow a G-5 team that ranks #130 in returning team production in the country to beat us, even at their house, things are going to get HOT for Morris a lot sooner than maybe he might have expected. But to me, that's exactly why it isn't going to happen.
I view Morris has a honeymoon period and the first year isn't all that relevant, if Hogs end up at least 4-8. Probably will be better than that. Disappointing yes, but will all be blamed on Bielema (and rightly so!) if things go south in year 1.
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Nashville Fan

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How could AR have stunk so bad last year and had the 39th Offense and 58th Defense? WOW the world is relative. I think that would have been middle of the pack SEC 10-15 years ago. I would have thought we were around 80-100s on both.  Nevermind I read the rest of the thread.
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mckinneyhog5


How could AR have stunk so bad last year and had the 39th Offense and 58th Defense? WOW the world is relative. I think that would have been middle of the pack SEC 10-15 years ago. I would have thought we were around 80-100s on both.  Nevermind I read the rest of the thread.

I think you may be mixed up about what was posted. Nevermind, I read the last part of your post..lol.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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I view Morris has a honeymoon period and the first year isn't all that relevant, if Hogs end up at least 4-8. Probably will be better than that. Disappointing yes, but will all be blamed on Bielema (and rightly so!) if things go south in year 1.

Morris has a honeymoon period of time, until he doesn't. Get beaten by 35-42 points by anyone on our schedule and the troops demonstrate what is perceived to be a lack of effort and the honeymoon will come to an abrupt end, first year or not. There is a certain faction of posters on here that are just waiting and hoping that will happen just so they can say..."told ya so".

While most are more rational than that, getting pounded to that degree, even by Alabama, may give some folks a bit of a pause in terms of their support of the new coach. If it weren't for the disappointment that we just went through with Bielema, it might be different. I just don't think that a lot of fans are going to be quite as forgiving and understanding this time around...change in staff and schemes or not. JMO
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Al Boarland

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Morris has a honeymoon period of time, until he doesn't. Get beaten by 35-42 points by anyone on our schedule and the troops demonstrate what is perceived to be a lack of effort and the honeymoon will come to an abrupt end, first year or not. There is a certain faction of posters on here that are just waiting and hoping that will happen just so they can say..."told ya so".

While most are more rational than that, getting pounded to that degree, even by Alabama, may give some folks a bit of a pause in terms of their support of the new coach. If it weren't for the disappointment that we just went through with Bielema, it might be different. I just don't think that a lot of fans are going to be quite as forgiving and understanding this time around...change in staff and schemes or not. JMO

Well said.
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Hogwild


Sure but coaches at new places are more apt to lose games they shouldn’t. Even Saban did so at Bama. One of those directional schools from Louisiana I think it was.

his 1st year at LSU he lost to UAB
his 1st year atBama he lost to ULM
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